General May Weather

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tornado
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General May Weather

Unread post by tornado »

this may might be a bit stormy. as we go from autum to winter.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

tornado wrote: Mon 29/04/2019 21:48 this may might be a bit stormy. as we go from autum to winter.
Maybe :crazy:

.....as they say in Timaru " A Mays pie might be better than the Aprils one." :-w
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

First 10 days of May look dry for many of us according to the GFS-para. Looks like some weather coming in after that though.

Accumulated rainfall for next 10 days.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by jamie »

NZstorm wrote:First 10 days of May look dry for many of us according to the GFS-para. Looks like some weather coming in after that though.

Accumulated rainfall for next 10 days.
So the big dry continues.....


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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by tornado »

a front is said to come on sunday and monday. so.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

NZstorm wrote: Tue 30/04/2019 18:58 First 10 days of May look dry for many of us according to the GFS-para. Looks like some weather coming in after that though.

Accumulated rainfall for next 10 days.

I’m not sure I’d be saying that on the coast, from the current GFS run, it’s a few days out but it has a long drenching in mind right now from Saturday through to Wednesday from Fiordland right up to Collingwood. Granted, you are right in that none of us live there! BOM wants to bring in high pressure rather than combining a very moist Tasman low and a southerly, as the GFS does.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by David »

Coolest morning of the year here so far with 4.6C
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

2 cents worth.

The tropospheric and stratospheric Polar vortex's are gaining plenty of strength now which is normal. No signs of any significant warming yet in the stratosphere.

One very interesting observation is the wild arc on MJO at the moment. That is currently positioned a long way outside the ring of stability. EC ensemble green line projection keeps it widish as it come into this part of the world. Increased moisture in the tropics will become apparent in the next week. If an upper low can propagate into the Tasman in a week or so, an Oz east coast low or a rather large cyclonic Tasman gyre could form in the middle of May.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

GFS has followed the BOM in backing away from a Tasman low after the weekend’s front, and sends that low in the direction of the east coast of Australia so CT you may be right pretty quickly! We seem to be set for a mix of westerlies and high pressure early to mid-month.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Chris W wrote: Wed 01/05/2019 18:33 We seem to be set for a mix of westerlies and high pressure early to mid-month.
Indian Summer, maybe :-w
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by tornado »

no but this high oressure may be the last long lasting one before winter comes. warm days. cold nights. autum highs. typical
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A wee bit of drizzle here late evening. :wave:
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

No cold SW changes forecast for the South Island for the first half of May, here’s hoping the long term forecasts come true and things start to really cool down in the 2nd half, that cooler April raised hopes that this winter would be different to last years, would be so good to see some snow on the ground in Christchurch this winter for the first time in 6 years :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Dean. »

Bradley wrote: Fri 03/05/2019 07:43 No cold SW changes forecast for the South Island for the first half of May, here’s hoping the long term forecasts come true and things start to really cool down in the 2nd half, that cooler April raised hopes that this winter would be different to last years, would be so good to see some snow on the ground in Christchurch this winter for the first time in 6 years :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The last decent fall here in Ashburton was 2016 around 7cm on the ground
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

Dean. wrote: Fri 03/05/2019 09:13
Bradley wrote: Fri 03/05/2019 07:43 No cold SW changes forecast for the South Island for the first half of May, here’s hoping the long term forecasts come true and things start to really cool down in the 2nd half, that cooler April raised hopes that this winter would be different to last years, would be so good to see some snow on the ground in Christchurch this winter for the first time in 6 years :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The last decent fall here in Ashburton was 2016 around 7cm on the ground
Nothing in the 12th July 2017 event Dean? In West Melton which is also at 100m asl we received 10-12cm...
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Warmer than average for the next week. Some very moist air showing in the GFS in a weeks time may set up for some interesting weather.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Dean. »

Bradley wrote: Fri 03/05/2019 09:35
Dean. wrote: Fri 03/05/2019 09:13

The last decent fall here in Ashburton was 2016 around 7cm on the ground
Nothing in the 12th July 2017 event Dean? In West Melton which is also at 100m asl we received 10-12cm...
A skiff...would have been a chain shower set up moving onshore north of Rakaia
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by tornado »

thick fog in auckland now canceling flights at airport
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Bugger. Have had that trouble a couple of times arriving back from the US Chascations. Huge drag waiting & waiting then finally they bus you down. Thanks heavens the big planes can do Cat III C landings in the fog.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Fog for parts of Auckland, fine here now. I think the jets are generally okay in fog, the small prop aircraft that fly to the regions get grounded much more easily.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by David »

tornado wrote: Sat 04/05/2019 07:33 thick fog in auckland now canceling flights at airport
Sunny morning here, but the fog starts just a few hundred meters from home down the hill a bit. Have noticed before that Pakuranga gets the fog a lot more than Howick does.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by tornado »

its cleared away now. for a sunny morning. fog was caused eue to high pressure. last of the big highs before the big lows start
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Fog until midday-ish yesterday. Still thick fog here today.


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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by cbm »

Hasn't been thick here at all, but stuck in 70% low cloud cover mode since before 10am. Doesn't want to clear any further. 14.8C despite almost no direct sun so far, so at least it has not been cold.Image

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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Just for entertainment at this stage but GFS-FVS 18Z show casing a significant cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex and a cat 2 tropical cyclone on the same map. Both the polar and subtropical jets look quite feral as than interact, moisture is fed from the depression or cyclone at low levels. Some key ingredients to a Tasman synoptic eruption late next weekend. Back to the popcorn :smile:
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