General June Weather

[tornado]

a few heavy showers in auckland today. enough to make the ground wet

[Cyclone Tracy]

My 2 cents worth

Keep a close watch on subtropics in the last week of June as the MJO phase is nearby. Medium term modelling has been volatile in the last week and shorter term modelling is starting to throw up an upper cold pool of air cutting off from the westerly belt in the northern Tasman, spawning a cyclonic subtropical gyre towards the end of June.

Polar vortex structure is strong, no sign of a significant weakening at this stage. The surface temperatures on the Antarctic continent are now becoming brutal. Be prepared for a significant cold snap in July once the polar vortex moves into a weakening phase, propagating the polar jet more equatorward.

[TonyT]

Be prepared for a significant cold snap in July once the polar vortex moves into a weakening phase, propagating the polar jet more equatorward.

Longer term outlook is suggesting this will manifest as a large, slow moving or blocked high pressure zone over/around NZ.

[Bradley]

Be prepared for a significant cold snap in July once the polar vortex moves into a weakening phase, propagating the polar jet more equatorward.

Longer term outlook is suggesting this will manifest as a large, slow moving or blocked high pressure zone over/around NZ.

If just west of NZ this high would enhance any cold fronts moving through and if it was directly over New Zealand the high would mean mild days, cold frosty nights and dry weather - is that right Tony?

[TonyT]

Longer term outlook is suggesting this will manifest as a large, slow moving or blocked high pressure zone over/around NZ.

If just west of NZ this high would enhance any cold fronts moving through and if it was directly over New Zealand the high would mean mild days, cold frosty nights and dry weather - is that right Tony?

Correct. Expect an overall drier and colder next six weeks, perhaps more southwesterly in the first half (anticyclones to the west), and tending light easterly in the second half (anticyclones blocking east of the South Island).

[talbotmj15]

Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.

[Bradley]

Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.

There was a second major winter storm though, just as the subject Tony created suggested, it just wasn’t in Canterbury but the title never suggested that it would be Canterbury?

[TonyT]

Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.

And I would say thats pretty likely too (first week of July is the most likely time), for the same reason - its what we expect most winters and it would be unusual if it didnt happen, especially in a period when more southerly quarter airflow is expected than usual. Its just that I'm suggesting we won't get a 2-3 week period of continual active fronts, but plenty of dry periods instead.

[SirSlingy]

Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.

There was a second major winter storm though, just as the subject Tony created suggested, it just wasn’t in Canterbury but the title never suggested that it would be Canterbury?

So true. This can tend to be a Canterbury storm centric forum at times!

[snowchaser01]

There was a second major winter storm though, just as the subject Tony created suggested, it just wasn’t in Canterbury but the title never suggested that it would be Canterbury?

So true. This can tend to be a Canterbury storm centric forum at times!

That is because a lot of the active posters on here are from Canterbury...?

[snowchaser01]

On a different note, GFS is showing a significant cold blast for the 22nd... only 4 days away. been in the models for a while now too

[talbotmj15]

Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.

There was a second major winter storm though, just as the subject Tony created suggested, it just wasn’t in Canterbury but the title never suggested that it would be Canterbury?

Given the nature of the second storm was all about snow i believe it was targeted around Canterbury. It just never arrived. I digress anyway. Good frosts brewing tonight. Could be coldest night this year in sheffield. Already well below 0.

[tornado]

the second storm was actually the Auckland storm on Wednesday 5 june. and the northland tornado

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Could be coldest night this year in sheffield. Already well below 0.

Down to minus 2 here at the moment so it will be interesting to see what it be at dawn when I go out collect the newspaper. Apart from this WE, it looks quite anticyclonic to finish off this month of June, so more frosts are likely?

[Razor]

If I was a ski field operator in Canterbury I would be starting to get nervous

[Bradley]

I am starting to see a prolonged and very frosty period from about next Tuesday through to the weekend for the south island, after another cold front clears out on Monday/early Tuesday a pool of cold air will be left over the top of us to which a very large and slow moving high pressure will slowly drift east over from Australia. Going by this mornings temperatures of -3C at the airport I can easily see 3 or 4 mornings in a row next week of around -4C or -5C...

[Razor]

I am starting to see a prolonged and very frosty period from about next Tuesday through to the weekend for the south island, after another cold front clears out on Monday/early Tuesday a pool of cold air will be left over the top of us to which a very large and slow moving high pressure will slowly drift east over from Australia. Going by this mornings temperatures of -3C at the airport I can easily see 3 or 4 mornings in a row next week of around -4C or -5C...

Was barely a frost at all in Halswell, last the car out last night and only the barest amount of ice on the windscreen, no scraping required.

[Richard]

If I was a ski field operator in Canterbury I would be starting to get nervous

Yes, I would be too, not looking like any reasonable snow fall for the rest of June. What snow was on the higher mountains inland from here a few weeks ago has largely gone.

[Thunder081]

Nice in Lyall Bay, Wellington.

[wembley]

Just like that old saying "You can't beat Wellington on a good day".

[cbm]

Interesting linear cloud formation this morning. Can confirm it's not fog, it's stratus. Pleased to be West enough to be in the sun for now.

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[Orion]

Thin high cloud thickening aloft here, which at +1.3°C isn't such a cheery prospect.
Lawn still white.

[spwill]

A soft Winter here so far. Possibly some heavy showers/hail in the mix over the north of the country Sunday, upper levels are showing cold on Sunday.

[jamie]

What was the hazy mist that came through the Waikato today through the middle of the day.


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[tich]

Thin high cloud thickening aloft here, which at +1.3°C isn't such a cheery prospect.
Lawn still white.

High cloud over South Island after frosty start = very cold day. Temps in low single figures in some inalnd areas of SI today. Not that cold in Chch, but still a cold day.