Second major winter storm of 2019 - June 4-6

[Cyclone Tracy]

Mid latitude cyclone remains favoured to cross the coast between Auckland and New Plymouth with a central pressure between 980 to 985 hPa Wednesday afternoon assisted by interacting jets. EC showing high intensity lightning on the boundary of the occluded front as it enters the upper NI in the middle of Wednesday, with TT's over 55. Access R showing a 120 km/h gusting wrap around south westerly attack into Auckland Wednesday evening. This is a lively synoptic scale storm system

[David]

Metservice 3 day model showing pretty heavy rain tomorrow

[cbm]

Mid latitude cyclone remains favoured to cross the coast between Auckland and New Plymouth with a central pressure between 980 to 985 hPa Wednesday afternoon assisted by interacting jets. EC showing high intensity lightning on the boundary of the occluded front as it enters the upper NI in the middle of Wednesday, with TT's over 55. Access R showing a 120 km/h gusting wrap around south westerly attack into Auckland Wednesday evening. This is a lively synoptic scale storm system

Hope not a repeat of April 2018, that was a very costly storm.

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[Cyclone Tracy]

Mid latitude cyclone remains favoured to cross the coast between Auckland and New Plymouth with a central pressure between 980 to 985 hPa Wednesday afternoon assisted by interacting jets. EC showing high intensity lightning on the boundary of the occluded front as it enters the upper NI in the middle of Wednesday, with TT's over 55. Access R showing a 120 km/h gusting wrap around south westerly attack into Auckland Wednesday evening. This is a lively synoptic scale storm system

Hope not a repeat of April 2018, that was a very costly storm.

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yes, good point. I think the sting in its tail is less brutal than the 10 April 2018 storm but it is projected to have similar level of pressure at the centre on most models. That April 2018 storm had an incredible pressure squeeze on its NW flank as it crossed the coast.... I think the 212 km/h gust at Manukau Heads clocked that night is now the NZ wind record ?

[tornado]

that april 10 storm did cause strong winds. this one may be the same. could be tornadoes as well

[Nev]

I think the 212 km/h gust at Manukau Heads clocked that night is now the NZ wind record ?

250 km/h gusts at Mt John, Canterbury on 18 April 1970 is the official national record. And 248 km/h at Hawkins Hill, Wellington on 6 November 1959 and 4 July 1962 is the North Island record.

[Cherie]

Was the April last year storm the one where there was no warning? If I’m remembering correctly it came on very suddenly. I wanted to go outside to secure stuff but was too afraid. It was howling.

[tornado]

Was the April last year storm the one where there was no warning? If I’m remembering correctly it came on very suddenly. I wanted to go outside to secure stuff but was too afraid. It was howling.

yeah. i bet this one will be similar. tornadoes. strong winds up to cyclone standards. damage. powercuts.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I think the 212 km/h gust at Manukau Heads clocked that night is now the NZ wind record ?

250 km/h gusts at Mt John, Canterbury on 18 April 1970 is the official national record. And 248 km/h at Hawkins Hill, Wellington on 6 November 1959 and 4 July 1962 is the North Island record.

Yes, thanks for that Nev. I always thought that Mt. John had that official national record.

[Nev]

Was the April last year storm the one where there was no warning? If I’m remembering correctly it came on very suddenly. I wanted to go outside to secure stuff but was too afraid. It was howling.

I think this comment from Tony at the time pretty much sums up that popular misconception…

I really dont think the media have taken this storm seriously enough. The warnings have been there from various sources for a week or more, and no one seems to have got any traction in the media. I've tried, but it seems like the response is "its only autumn, the serious weather doesnt come till winter" (!). It will be interesting to see if they report on the consequences loudly (as they usually do with weather stories), or play it down to match their lack of interest pre-event.

[RWood]

250 km/h gusts at Mt John, Canterbury on 18 April 1970 is the official national record. And 248 km/h at Hawkins Hill, Wellington on 6 November 1959 and 4 July 1962 is the North Island record.

Yes, thanks for that Nev. I always thought that Mt. John had that official national record.

It should be noted that a likely higher reading from Oteranga Bay on 10 April 1968 was not used as the equipment may have been faulty - but it would not have been surprising to have surpassed 250km/h.

[tornado]

metservice says possible tornadoes in their thunderstorm outlook tommorow. which i give a moderate risk

[Cherie]

Ahh, interesting. I don't remember that. Be interested to know how Tony tried - did he call/message media directly? And they weren't interested? (no criticism here, just genuinely interested)

Was the April last year storm the one where there was no warning? If I’m remembering correctly it came on very suddenly. I wanted to go outside to secure stuff but was too afraid. It was howling.

I think this comment from Tony at the time pretty much sums up that popular misconception…

I really dont think the media have taken this storm seriously enough. The warnings have been there from various sources for a week or more, and no one seems to have got any traction in the media. I've tried, but it seems like the response is "its only autumn, the serious weather doesnt come till winter" (!). It will be interesting to see if they report on the consequences loudly (as they usually do with weather stories), or play it down to match their lack of interest pre-event.

[tornado]

metservice has issued a wind warning,heavy rain watch and a severe thunderstorm watch for upper north island .


i think this is going to be hell of a storm.

[NZstorm]

Another thunderstorm risk western North Island late Thursday as well with a cold front. Looking like models are bringing that front in closer to midnight now.

Queenstown ski fields should get some snow later tomorrow. And some unstable air Banks Peninsula late tomorrow night.

[Nev]

Ahh, interesting. I don't remember that. Be interested to know how Tony tried - did he call/message media directly? And they weren't interested? (no criticism here, just genuinely interested)

Getting a bit off-topic here, but Media Releases I'd imagine. MS also had plenty of warnings and watches, etc out for that storm well in advance. However, compared to the amount of coverage given to the 3 ex-TC's affecting NZ in the previous months, the media seem to have been oddly complacent on that April storm. Thread on that system here.

[tornado]

yes. strong wind warning in place from metservice. and a severe thunderstorm watch. also a heavy rain watch too. metservice also says possible tornadoes as well.

[David]

Looks like GFS might be right precipitation-wise today, has been showing around 10mm for today. No sign of the heavy rain other models were showing for this morning

[Cyclone Tracy]

Moisture plume in the middle levels developing around Northland at 10.40am

[spwill]

www.metservice.com is undergoing maintenance or is otherwise unavailable

I say sack Metservice

[spwill]

Yes, some Cbs/isolated thunderstorms over Northland currently drifting this way.

[Razor]

www.metservice.com is undergoing maintenance or is otherwise unavailable

I say sack Metservice

A bit harsh

[David]

My station in Howick just hit 200 mm/hr rain rate!

[Cyclone Tracy]

This really is quite an astonishingly long and embarrassing outage for MS. For the whole main site to still be down suggests it has fundamental design issues for load balancing. One bad weather day for Auckland is all it takes....

Brief downpour here as well, more to come looking at the water vapour image. Baro is falling , now 994 hPa


edit: I'm picking up a large cluster of CG's near Whangarei (not picked up on Blitz)

[cbm]

Media reporting a possible tornado in the far North.

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