Longwave trough and cold surge July 12th-21st

[Chris W]

As a few people have posted about in the general July weather thread there is a pattern change arriving from around tomorrow. From the blocking highs of much of June we transition to the influence of a longwave trough as the Antarctic vortex distorts and the subtropical ridge gives way, and CT as well as others can tell you more about that. A few things that may come about:

- Storms in the North Island early in the period.
- Heavy rain for the west coast and North Island.
- Very cold upper air over the entire South Island on Sunday 14th.
- A shortwave trough (low) Monday-Tuesday bringing snow to ski fields, mountain passes and maybe lower than that.
- Strong winds from the west and south.

[tornado]

yes tommorow looks good for thunder in auckland. already lightning out at sea to the west according to blitz

[Cyclone Tracy]

Warm front closing in on Auckland, some decent moisture in the mid levels to the NW in the Tasman that are sparking ahead of the cold front boundary. Should be some reasonable downpours in the next 6 hours.

[tornado]

I think I just heard a low rumble of thudner

[spwill]

Parts of Northland catching a thunderstorm.

[spwill]

Some thunderstorms have formed out to sea west of Auckland, South Auckland might catch a storm next hr.

[tornado]

i can hear some low rumbles of thunder.

[NZstorm]

Cb to south with occasional flashes. Pukekohe direction.

[tornado]

torrential rain now

[tornado]

Just saw 2 flashes of lightning from my house in farm cove pakuranga

[tornado]

another flash now

[spwill]

I went up Mt Roskill, distant lightning flashes and thunder to the southwest.

[NZstorm]

Plenty of lightning, but its moving away. Ardmore airport has thunder on 6pm ob.

[tornado]

another shot for thunder and lightning is sunday bur at least i heard distanct thunder and saw 15 lightning flashes

[tornado]

raining again now.

[tornado]

reports of tornado in taranaki.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily- ... i-tornado/

[NZstorm]

GFS indicates chance of another tornado or two for early Sunday morning for Taranaki and then Bay of Plenty in the afternoon. And a repeat risk late Monday!

[tornado]

GFS indicates chance of another tornado or two for early Sunday morning for Taranaki and then Bay of Plenty in the afternoon. And a repeat risk late Monday!

and possible a good thunderstorm that wont miss us aucklanders. though i saw 15 lightning strikes and heard distant thunder. Heavy rain did hit here

[NZstorm]

65knots is modeled at 850mbs with Sundays front over the North Island! I expect a few wind damage/tornado reports.

[Cyclone Tracy]

6mm yesterday, no thunder heard, storms went north and south of here.

Yes, another interesting set up tomorrow with widespread total totals 50+ and the Jets are linking.

[tornado]

6mm yesterday, no thunder heard, storms went north and south of here.

Yes, another interesting set up tomorrow with widespread total totals 50+ and the Jets are linking.

uh well maybe sunday we all get thunder. I did hear distanct thunder and saw distant lightning.

[tornado]

65knots is modeled at 850mbs with Sundays front over the North Island! I expect a few wind damage/tornado reports.

yeah Im hoping for more tornado reports as well. yesterdays tornado in taranaki was the second tornado to hit nz this year. first one was in northland.

[tornado]

the new Plymouth event yesterday was really a tornado theres a video on nz herald that shows the aftermath and the tornado itself from a distance. The guy who capture this nearly lost his life as it came towards him and debris nearly hit him.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12249122

[tornado]

the tornado hit the car of the guy who captured it

[tornado]

radio nz says it wasnt a tornado. thats not true. there is proof of a tornado as I posted above