Longwave trough and cold surge July 12th-21st

BeaconHill · Unread post by **BeaconHill** » Mon 15/07/2019 10:30

The same convective cell caught my eye out the window of my flight from Nelson to Wellington this morning. Photo taken just after 8am.

E5B5430A-8669-4F9D-87C0-303A9CE82110.jpeg

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Mon 15/07/2019 13:23

I also saw that while driving to Amberley, looked amazing against the ocean backdrop and sunrise.

GFS and EC hinting at a cut-off low for the weekend, could be a very wet one if that comes off.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 16/07/2019 17:07

Last system in the long wave sequence is projecting across multiple models, a cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex this Friday with interacting jet streams. Lacks tropical moisture for rapid cyclogenesis but it will be interesting to see where the surface low deepens as the weekend unfolds.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 16/07/2019 19:59

Weather was much better than I was expecting today... had 4mm rain first thing then a mainly dry day

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 16/07/2019 21:43

Weather not looking all that interesting here in Geraldine considering the circumstances

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 17/07/2019 05:40

David wrote:Weather was much better than I was expecting today... had 4mm rain first thing then a mainly dry day

Lucky. Wasn’t like that here. Have had a lot more rain over night than I was expecting too. Doesn’t take long if this weather pattern to get sick of it.

Can wait for the high to come in

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NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 17/07/2019 06:49

jamie wrote: ↑Wed 17/07/2019 05:40
Can wait for the high to come in

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yes, a pattern change to more sunshine next week will be welcome. Has not been cold though with 16-17C highs last 7 days.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 17/07/2019 13:09

I prefer this current pattern to a high June and July. Warmer with some weather interest.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Wed 17/07/2019 14:06

Some of the cloud to the south and west has that snowy-looking yellowish/pinkish tinge.

4.9°C here at present.

snowykiwi · Unread post by **snowykiwi** » Wed 17/07/2019 14:10

bitterly cold in Methven

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Wed 17/07/2019 14:35

Radar showing some purples through mid-Canterbury at the moment, and I'm all set to drive back from Kaikoura to Chch. Cool.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 17/07/2019 15:03

Certainly wetter than most expected in our area of Canterbury, but when I looked at GFS yesterday it was well picked there

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 17/07/2019 15:28

More isolated thunderstorms over the North Island today. Can see tops to south.

Thunder081 · Unread post by **Thunder081** » Wed 17/07/2019 17:18

Southwesterly front slowly approaching Wellington

BeaconHill · Unread post by **BeaconHill** » Wed 17/07/2019 19:42

The front approaching Wellington bubbled up behind the rolling wind line that @Thunder081 caught. The tops caught the setting sun nicely!

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Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Wed 17/07/2019 20:10

Caught the front coming over the Hundalee hills, very dark and windy. Not a lot of rain until we passed Cheviot around 4:30pm, then dry after Amberley. Definitely an interesting change.

Rogue · Unread post by **Rogue** » Thu 18/07/2019 11:59

Looking forward to flying into Auckland tomorrow morning for the day

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 19/07/2019 07:26

Pockets of rain coming in from Northland this morning. BoM's high res regional model Access R upgrading parts of the SI for the next 72 hours with the low cutting off near Cook strait.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 19/07/2019 08:08

Mod Note: Have updated this thread's date range by a few days to include our cut-off low.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Fri 19/07/2019 09:16

Steady rain at Orewa Beach at the moment, "rain-fairies" dancing in the puddles

Tree-tops tossing in the wind.

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Fri 19/07/2019 11:24

Nev wrote: ↑Fri 19/07/2019 08:08 Mod Note: Have updated this thread's date range by a few days to include our cut-off low.

Thanks Nev, I had wondered about a separate thread for that but really it's all related to the longwave trough. I just didn't want to dominate half of the month!

Rain areas and intensities are changing every model run, any part of Canterbury/Otago could get a pasting or end up with nothing by the end of the weekend! I'll be in Geraldine, expecting wetness

snowykiwi · Unread post by **snowykiwi** » Fri 19/07/2019 12:28

It will be interesting to see how much rain we get in Rakaia with this weekends rainfall. As long as the rain fall is steady and not a sustained heavy deluge it shouldn't be a problem. The Rakaia/Barrhill/Methven road will be interesting to travel through on Monday - that now floods in places with too much rain

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 19/07/2019 14:39

Baro has currently dropped below 1000 to 999.4 hPa. 6.4mm for the day takes its to 30mm for the thread sequence. Just showers now for the upper NI in the next 24 hours.

Lowest pressure on 2.30pm is 995 hPa at Farewell spit as the low drifts into the Cook strait.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 19/07/2019 17:31

Chris W wrote: ↑Fri 19/07/2019 11:24 Rain areas and intensities are changing every model run, any part of Canterbury/Otago could get a pasting or end up with nothing by the end of the weekend! I'll be in Geraldine, expecting wetness

Bring your Ukulele, as well as gumboots etc.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Fri 19/07/2019 18:17

heard thunder alot of thunder today.

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