31st - 3rd August heavy snow event Mid-North Canterbury

[snowchaser01]

There's a greater chance of winning lotto!

This will be an inland event, not a coastal one. So that kinda rules out sea level.

Exactly what I thought, no data in any of the models supports snow to sea level

Typical CWU click bait tactics once again...

[Cantab03]

Exactly what I thought, no data in any of the models supports snow to sea level

Typical CWU click bait tactics once again...

Exactly the reason I disassociated myself with CWU. I am thinking snow down to 300m in the heavier falls for this one. Either way winter finally showing some signs of life!

[snowchaser01]

I personally think MS ave got levels bang on. Expecting snow to 200m, but settling above 300m.

[Rogue]

I noticed the other day CWU posted their first 'potential snow' post approximately 30 minutes after Blue Skies posted theirs.

[Growler]

Im picking there to be 72" to sea level, wide spread damage. Potential for ships to come inland.
I still haven't started my subscription based www but it is coming, i hope you will all join, presales will be $50/week minimum 2 years joining.

[Razor]

Metservice projecting 3.2mm of rain for ChCh, 30cm of snow for Mt Hutt. Supports the comments being made here.

[Chris W]

Could be a good Wednesday afternoon for tobogganing at Springfield.

[talbotmj15]

Im thinking 3-5cm to 200m max. Being advection though 7-15cm 300m and 10-15cm 400m plus. I think there was a chance about 24-36hours ago where flurries at best may have made it to sea level but ive abandoned that theory for tonight and tommorow. Ashburton is the only likely candidate to get sleety falls tommorow and even thats touch and go.

[melja]

The whole MS warning system is very confusing for most people I think and even there actual forecasts.
1- there heavy snow warning says 15-20cm to 400m and even deeper at higher altitudes but there road snow warnings mention only 1-3cm on both Lewis and Arthur's pass to 500m
2- They have a watch for heavy short duration rain for areas including chch city but as pointed out they are only showing a few mm on there chch page and Ashburton even less.

They need better consistently across there different pages, it's as if there different forecast teams don't review what each other is saying.

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[snowchaser01]

The whole MS warning system is very confusing for most people I think and even there actual forecasts.
1- there heavy snow warning says 15-20cm to 400m and even deeper at higher altitudes but there road snow warnings mention only 1-3cm on both Lewis and Arthur's pass to 500m
2- They have a watch for heavy short duration rain for areas including chch city but as pointed out they are only showing a few mm on there chch page and Ashburton even less.

They need better consistently across there different pages, it's as if there different forecast teams don't review what each other is saying.

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The rain/snow amounts that show on town pages on Metservice are computer generate. So i will always trust their warnings more. They have been moderated by a qualified brain. It even states under the graph the following...

"While computer generated forecasts are useful, the model that produced the 2-hourly graph today is just one of a number of resources used by our meteorologists and can differ from their analysis, presented in the text forecast at the top of the page. In the event that these differ, please use the text forecasts produced by MetService meteorologists. Data generated for Christchurch Aero Automatic Weather Station (AWS-93781)"

[melja]

Sure but what about conflicting information on there snow warnings then.

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[snowchaser01]

Sure but what about conflicting information on there snow warnings then.

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No clue, haha! They are using wording with this event i've never seen them use before. Normally they say "30cm at the summit of the road with lesser amounts to 500m" for example.

But this time they are saying "20cm to 400m with deeper snow at higher elevations".... so yes as you say there is conflicting information that needs to be sorted.

[melja]

It's worst than that

Lewis Pass (SH7)

Issued at 12:37pm Tuesday 30 Jul 2019
Valid until 10:00pm Tuesday 30 Jul 2019

Snow may affect the road during Wednesday morning. Between 3am and midday Wednesday, 1 to 3cm of snow may settle on the road above 500 metres, with lesser amounts down to 300 metres.

Arthur's Pass (SH73)

Issued at 12:37pm Tuesday 30 Jul 2019
Valid until 10:00pm Tuesday 30 Jul 2019

Snow is expected to affect the road from this evening through to Wednesday morning. Between 8pm today and 8am Wednesday, expect 3 to 6cm of snow to affect the road above 500 metres, with lesser amounts down to 200 metres.




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[melja]

And there snow warning


Area: Marlborough south of Ward including the Kaikoura ranges, also the Canterbury High Country and Plains above 200 metres north of the Waimakariri River
Valid: 12 hours from 3:00am to 3:00pm Wednesday
Forecast: Snow is expected to fall to about 200 metres during this time. Expect 15 to 20cm of snow to accumulate about and above 400 metres, with even deeper snow expected at higher levels.
Changes: This area has now been upgraded to a Warning (Orange).

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[Dean.]

Most precipitation out east

[melja]

Lol 1-3cm on the Lewis pass haha we'll see!
The will get more than that from the NW component pre the Southerly change.

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[midgrove]

Blenheim has a heavy snow warning on its forecast page which is ludicrous! It seems that any weather warning for Marlborough includes Blenheim even though in this case it is a long way from the Kaikoura ranges and is at sea level. Must be computer generated like the 2 hourly rainfall amounts with no human input

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Low cloud rolling in from the south now with a bit of a southerly breeze.
First wind noted here for ages.

[MoorfNZ]

Has just started raining here - Sheffield/Waddington

[Razor]

Had a nice evening running on the Port Hills. Occasionally misty but mostly light SW breeze, clear and great views

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[Dean.]

Missed the injection of colder air...6 degrees snow confined to the hills

[Richard]

Raining heavily here now, temp on 3.1deg and dropping fast, drop .9 in 10 min

[Richard]

Warming again from 2.9 now 4 deg, not even a flake of snow seen falling so the snowline was no where near as low as forecasted

[snowykiwi]

quite a lot of flooding on the Rakaia/Barrhill/Methven Road this morning, worst I've seen in the five years I've been travelling that road.

[Razor]

8.4mm for us in the wee small hours, and a minimum of 6 degrees. I see Porters Pass is closed so it looks like the models nailed it. Any CWU retraction of that sea level snow? Lol doubt it.