Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 03/08/2019 18:32

TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:17
snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 17:23 Tony, you've been quiet the last few days... haha

what are your thoughts currently?
Tomorrow is probably the most difficult day to predict that I have experienced in the last, dont know how many years. Better to just stay quiet and let others make fools of themselves I think!

A factor that perhaps many people aren’t considering that may well help in the chances of this trough producing more moisture then the models are currently predicting is the warmer then normal SST’s around NZ at the moment. This warmed up the last cold snap that came through which raised the snow level but conversely it also brought more precipitation then forecast - perhaps this could be the difference between 0mm on Sunday and Monday for Christchurch and 5-10mm...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 03/08/2019 18:47

SW change set to arrive at midnight tonight. Id say possible heavy showers and hail. Maybe a flash out east/sea.
I to sit on the fence with tomorrow..keeping watch on that developing low to the north of chch. But hey.. what do i know about trying to call snow

Not really my strongest area.
But here's hoping!!

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 03/08/2019 18:58

If there is any it wont be much. I just feel like there is one more twist in what this is going to deliver....

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 03/08/2019 19:06

Probably wake up to another cold fine day here in Geraldine with this system missing the area.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 03/08/2019 19:25

NZstorm wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 07:19 Bluff would be a good weather chase Sunday to catch some thundersnow. I have only seen it once before.

A dairy farmer friend of mine (another retired Morris dancer) from Methven reported some "Thundersnow" many years ago when it was snowing heavily around his farm near Methven.
A great white flash, he told me, in the cloud and it looked fantastic with the cloud lit up with the snow falling.
He was surprised as he didn't expect such a thing to happen.
I told him it was probably a result of a pocket of warm air in in the freezing cold cold air moving northward from the south.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 03/08/2019 19:43

snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:22
TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:17

Tomorrow is probably the most difficult day to predict that I have experienced in the last, dont know how many years. Better to just stay quiet and let others make fools of themselves I think!
Haha.. where is the fun in that you must have a 2 cents worth?

Flat broke mate.

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 03/08/2019 19:53

TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 19:43
snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:22

Haha.. where is the fun in that you must have a 2 cents worth?
Flat broke mate.

I guess time will tell, but you're right that it is proving difficult to predict.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 03/08/2019 20:31

quick 2 cents worth for Southland. Current water vapour image and position of the 520 thickness line indicates to me it will be sleeting and snowing in Invercargill around midnight.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 03/08/2019 21:22

The GLM sensor aboard the new GOES-17 picking up a bit of lightning tonight over Westland with the cold front:

61208170(1).gif

from weathernerds.org

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 03/08/2019 21:29

Willoughby wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 21:22 The GLM sensor aboard the new GOES-17 picking up a bit of lightning tonight over Westland with the cold front:
61208170(1).gif

from weathernerds.org

Very sporadic there, Will.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sat 03/08/2019 21:42

I had a look at Muriwai for the high swells - apparently 5m at 10am this morning. I've seen the swells bigger on previous events. Photogenic between the showers!

aIMG_1670.JPG

aIMG_1680.JPG

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Sat 03/08/2019 23:21

Snowing to 200 metres here, only lightly at this stage though.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sat 03/08/2019 23:31

Sleety showers now Temp 3.1C.11.4 mm out of front this arvo

Cantab03 · Unread post by **Cantab03** » Sat 03/08/2019 23:49

Thunder and lightning, with very heavy rain in Westport currently!! Its really come through with a hiss and a roar here in the last 10mins.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 03/08/2019 23:57

IMG_20190803_224113_096.jpg

Nothing to see here in our hood, just a lovely sunny and relatively mild winter's day for outdoors fun. More of the same coming tomorrow

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sun 04/08/2019 00:01

Still sleeting .Temp now 1.2 C

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Sun 04/08/2019 06:07

Just had a period of heavy snow here, about 4cm's on the ground.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 04/08/2019 08:24

Ice (frozen rain) on our deck this morning.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 04/08/2019 08:25

Bradley wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:32
A factor that perhaps many people aren’t considering that may well help in the chances of this trough producing more moisture then the models are currently predicting is the warmer then normal SST’s around NZ at the moment.

The SST have been above normal for a long time but now its gone below over at least half the Tasman
.

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NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 04/08/2019 08:39

Some sporadic lightning through Foveaux Straight overnight. A strike on Bluff at 5.56am.

Bluff.JPG

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 04/08/2019 08:52

A little bit of sporadic lightning on the front out to west of North Island this morning. The surface dewpoint in Auckland is 11C which is just moist enough for a thunder risk here this morning.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Sun 04/08/2019 09:30

NZstorm wrote: ↑Sun 04/08/2019 08:52 A little bit of sporadic lightning on the front out to west of North Island this morning. The surface dewpoint in Auckland is 11C which is just moist enough for a thunder risk here this morning.

i hope so. metservice has changed from low risk to moderate. from auckland. i hope if there is thunder in auckland today. hopefully it will be more widespread then the storms on wednesday night

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 04/08/2019 09:39

Pretty wet morning here, 9mm already with heavy showers.

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sun 04/08/2019 09:40

Hmm, GFS this morning is indicating the little trough to cross quite a lot further south... while EC still has it way north. I know it's unusual to look at models during an event but it's a large change. I have to say, the radar supports what GFS is saying, and it looks like moisture may move through chch briefly mid afternoon...

Ice Maiden · Unread post by **Ice Maiden** » Sun 04/08/2019 09:45

Just received this photo of the snow from family in Gore, looking out to the Hokonui Hills.

CCF8F316-22B8-4108-A49D-EFD42708829F.jpeg

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Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th

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