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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Tue 10/09/2019 12:30
by TonyT
Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 10/09/2019 10:29
Signs this morning the polar vortex at 70hpa repairing itself with the large area of winds around the 100kmh mark now up to 140kmh and the diamond shape now more of a traditional circle - all this is going directly against the notion that the vortex is losing shape and/or breaking up all together, very strange...
Just a random thought, but maybe if we consider the polar vortex as a living beast, then perhaps the SSW is more like kidney failure than a broken leg. The impacts will be many and varied even though they can be tied back to a root cause, and they will manifest in different ways at different times. Whereas the broken bone hurts all the time till it mends, the kidney failure produces waves of pain and a general feeling of being off-colour. Not a brilliant analogy I know, but I do wonder if we will see the polar vortex stutter and stagger having good days and bad days, rather than just simply pass out.
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Tue 10/09/2019 12:45
by snowchaser01
TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 10/09/2019 12:30
Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 10/09/2019 10:29
Signs this morning the polar vortex at 70hpa repairing itself with the large area of winds around the 100kmh mark now up to 140kmh and the diamond shape now more of a traditional circle - all this is going directly against the notion that the vortex is losing shape and/or breaking up all together, very strange...
Just a random thought, but maybe if we consider the polar vortex as a living beast, then perhaps the SSW is more like kidney failure than a broken leg. The impacts will be many and varied even though they can be tied back to a root cause, and they will manifest in different ways at different times. Whereas the broken bone hurts all the time till it mends, the kidney failure produces waves of pain and a general feeling of being off-colour. Not a brilliant analogy I know, but I do wonder if we will see the polar vortex stutter and stagger having good days and bad days, rather than just simply pass out.
Well if we use that analogy you eventually die from kidney failure.. without wanting to be dark!
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Tue 10/09/2019 15:00
by treetopkk
I think with an absence of continents in the southern ocean, circulations can flow more freely than the N Hemisphere. ie blocking with long periods of cold less likely to be too severe here . Remember the snow on the pyramids a few years ago. 2 weeks out still showing strong SW/ NW flows across us which will keep things mixing [hot and cold] after that who knows ?
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Tue 10/09/2019 16:45
by TonyT
Untitled999.jpeg
Is Stuff subliminally getting us ready for some bad news?
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Tue 10/09/2019 16:54
by Nev
treetopkk wrote: ↑Tue 10/09/2019 15:00
Remember the snow on the pyramids a few years ago.
There never was any snow on the pyramids - those photos were proven to be photoshopped...
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Tue 10/09/2019 18:58
by Chris W
NH vortex splits are more likely because there are often two main lobes, one over Canada and one over Siberia. If a large enough Arctic high gets between them then a wider vortex split can occur. That's my understanding and it could very well be wrong. In the SH we only have the one continent, as has been said. It looks like the vortex will stay near to South America in its shrunken form, there doesn't seem to be an attack to its centre rather it is surrounded by warming. What that means for NZ, my guess is it might be a pretty weak polar jet and more cold spills from the south?
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 08:40
by Cyclone Tracy
This morning's NASA obs and forecast are showing winds @10 hPa now slowing and becoming closer to reversing to easterlies.
Propagating planetary waves now forecast off the chart @150 hPa. First signals of an upcoming jetstream impact.
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 09:15
by snowchaser01
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 11/09/2019 08:40
This morning's NASA obs and forecast are showing winds @10 hPa now slowing and becoming closer to reversing to easterlies.
Propagating planetary waves now forecast off the chart @150 hPa. First signals of an upcoming jetstream impact.
Insane numbers! CT, could you speculate on potential impacts at ground level yet? Appreciated as always.
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 10:08
by Bradley
A big change in the polar vortex at 10hpa overnight with temperatures of +9C now being observed realtime, this was a jump of 6C in the space of 12 hours so things are definately moving fast now so we should start seeing the effects of this being felt on the vortex at 70hpa then lower down in the troposphere in the next 2 weeks. It may be taking a little longer then some experts thought for the vortex to start to break apart but when it does it will be spectacular to say the least....interestingly the BOM in Queensland is now saying this event will lead to higher temps and less rainfall for Queensland because all the colder weather will be directed over Tasmania, New Zealand etc - not sure I agree with the warmer temperatures part of that forecast, if the vortex breaks down to the extent it is forecast to then that colder temps being directed from Antarctica will be strong enough to find it's way up to Queensland...
12.png
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 10:46
by Cyclone Tracy
snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Wed 11/09/2019 09:15
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 11/09/2019 08:40
This morning's NASA obs and forecast are showing winds @10 hPa now slowing and becoming closer to reversing to easterlies.
Propagating planetary waves now forecast off the chart @150 hPa. First signals of an upcoming jetstream impact.
Insane numbers! CT, could you speculate on potential impacts at ground level yet? Appreciated as always.
Sorry, I don’t know yet. @150 hPa the eddy heat flux today gave the first signal things are moving. The stratospheric polar vortex over the southern polar region is the most powerful weather system on earth and it’s currently proving it by displacing itself and surviving the sustained propagating wave attacks. This event is currently peaking 2 to 3 weeks earlier than 2002, which is crucial as the vortex is stronger in early September. The final yearly warming of the vortex and its breakdown normally occurs in during November, which gave the 2002 SSW event an advantage as it was weaker when the SSW peaked. This event has a different finger print....so far.
Daily weather balloon soundings (Like what Willoughby has posted) now becomes the canary in the mine, to check if the tropopause is starting to lower in the atmosphere. What ever happens, it's an amazing event unfolding before our eyes
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 12:57
by snowchaser01
Bradley wrote: ↑Wed 11/09/2019 10:08
A big change in the polar vortex at 10hpa overnight with temperatures of +9C now being observed realtime, this was a jump of 6C in the space of 12 hours so things are definately moving fast now so we should start seeing the effects of this being felt on the vortex at 70hpa then lower down in the troposphere in the next 2 weeks. It may be taking a little longer then some experts thought for the vortex to start to break apart but when it does it will be spectacular to say the least....interestingly the BOM in Queensland is now saying this event will lead to higher temps and less rainfall for Queensland because all the colder weather will be directed over Tasmania, New Zealand etc - not sure I agree with the warmer temperatures part of that forecast, if the vortex breaks down to the extent it is forecast to then that colder temps being directed from Antarctica will be strong enough to find it's way up to Queensland...
12.png
Real time data now increased the temp at 10hpa to +14.5C... another large increase and is surely putting the polar vortex under huge strain! Will be really interesting to see how high the temp gets.. popcorn time.
Capture.PNG
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 15:16
by snowchaser01
Flying up now, new update has live obvs at 15.9deg, up nearly 1.5deg from just 2 hours ago... holy moly!!
Capture.PNG
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 15:48
by Richard
You fella's will run out of popcorn the way its going, I wont though.
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 16:01
by Richard
At 10hPa showing a twin vertex
dv.png
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 16:55
by Awhituobs
the models are hinting at a big fat high over NZ around the 20th sep.
it could become a blocking high even
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 17:38
by cbm
Richard wrote:At 10hPa showing a twin vertex
dv.png
Sorry to be picky but you mean twin vortex.
Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 18:11
by Willoughby
Syowa's balloon had a good sample of the warming today, getting to +6C at 15 hPa:
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=89532
image.png
South Pole's balloon burst at 109 hPa level where it had -78C.
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 19:01
by Richard
cbm wrote: ↑Wed 11/09/2019 17:38
Richard wrote:At 10hPa showing a twin vertex
dv.png
Sorry to be picky but you mean twin vortex.
Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk
yes sorry
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Wed 11/09/2019 19:35
by Chris W
Richard the one to the top is the anticyclone due to the warming area, the other is the polar vortex. I don't see a split happening, just a displacement, the vortex is too constricted with nothing attacking its centre.
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Thu 12/09/2019 07:36
by Richard
Chris W wrote: ↑Wed 11/09/2019 19:35
Richard the one to the top is the anticyclone due to the warming area, the other is the polar vortex. I don't see a split happening, just a displacement, the vortex is too constricted with nothing attacking its centre.
I'll just shut up and leave it to you experts
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Thu 12/09/2019 11:00
by Cyclone Tracy
Hang in there Richard, we need all hands on deck for this one
The Antarctic continent continues it's temperature drop while the lower stratosphere now starts to break mean daily temperature records.
Antarctic temp 1109.jpg
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Thu 12/09/2019 13:03
by Richard
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 12/09/2019 11:00
Hang in there Richard, we need all hands on deck for this one
Well my offer still stands that I can at least supply the pop corn
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Thu 12/09/2019 18:05
by Chris W
I'm no expert, but I can at least tell those two apart so I can score some points with the big boys
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Fri 13/09/2019 11:22
by Bradley
GFS has the event peaking around 20-22nd September and by this time all the normal -60 or -70C temps have now completely dissapeared over Antarctica, how long these warmer temps rule is anyone's guess!
2019091218.f240.10.tmpcnonetmpctmpcnone.ant.gfs003.gif
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019
Posted: Fri 13/09/2019 13:56
by wre1991
Anyone care to speculate what this could mean for tropical cyclone activity?
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