Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

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Richard
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Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by Richard » Mon 31/12/2018 08:31

Way to finish the year off, hopefully a few of my fallow storm enthusiasts are free to head inland.
From the Met Service


Valid to: Midnight Monday 31 Dec 2018

Issued at: 7:52am Monday 31 Dec 2018

Daytime heating and wind convergence are likely to produce showers over eastern parts of the South Island. This afternoon and evening there is a broad low thunderstorm risk area from Dunedin and Central Otago through Canterbury to Marlborough as indicated on the chart. However from northern parts of Otago through inland Canterbury and inland Marlborough the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate. These thunderstorms could bring heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail 10 to 20mm diameter. There may also be isolated small tornadoes associated with these thunderstorms.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png
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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by mikestormchaser » Mon 31/12/2018 09:07

Definitely a chance Richard! Jase and I are heading to aarons mid afternoon out to mt Somers for new years eve bbq so will be in the right place anyway.
Will definitely be chasing if something goes up!
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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by 03Stormchaser » Mon 31/12/2018 09:32

Richard wrote:
Mon 31/12/2018 08:31
Way to finish the year off, hopefully a few of my fallow storm enthusiasts are free to head inland.
Will see how it pans out, think this will be a N Canterbury / Marlborough event. Not right something off further south but the good stuff will be further north. Its a wait and see from me at this point about whether I will chase

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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by 03Stormchaser » Mon 31/12/2018 09:34

There may also be isolated small tornadoes associated with these thunderstorms
Is its MS policy now to add this to every day we have thunderstorms in Canterbury? It covers there ass well if there is one but i would be interested in a more technical forecasts where they actually support this.

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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by NZstorm » Mon 31/12/2018 10:40

The environment is capped away from the higher terrain by very warm 850mb temperatures. The surface dps in Canterbury look weak at 13C. Better dp at Kaikoura of 16C. And Blenheim dp is 18C. So looks like an isolated explosive cb possible over the Malborough ranges, I have doubts about further south.

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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by Richard » Mon 31/12/2018 13:25

Just starting to get building cloud many to the SW, winds a light NE, 26.3 deg and 50% RH, bit worried the wind will go NW this afternoon and kill anything for here.
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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by Richard » Mon 31/12/2018 13:47

NW has arrived ..dam

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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc » Mon 31/12/2018 14:59

Darn. The southerly has come through with associated low stratus moving in hindering sky or cloud observations westward. There were some weak Cu over there but that has proabably gone now.
What a disappointment as I was hoping for this year to end off with a bang, naturally. :(
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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc » Mon 31/12/2018 16:25

Might get some violent drizzle to welcome the New Year in :rolleyes: :crazy:
Back to the clagg >_<
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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by NZstorm » Mon 31/12/2018 16:46

There is a thunderstorm over Marlborough ranges currently.

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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by Richard » Mon 31/12/2018 17:07

And here's a photo of that storm
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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc » Mon 31/12/2018 17:16

NZstorm wrote:
Mon 31/12/2018 16:46
There is a thunderstorm over Marlborough ranges currently.
Probably the only place for a thunderstorm today.
Just heard the latest forecast for North Otago and Canterbury on RNZ at 5pm.
Talk about nowcasting, this was a case of pastcasting for MS <3
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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by spwill » Mon 31/12/2018 18:41

Richard wrote:
Mon 31/12/2018 08:31
Way to finish the year off, hopefully a few of my fallow storm enthusiasts are free to head inland.
From the Met Service


Valid to: Midnight Monday 31 Dec 2018

Issued at: 7:52am Monday 31 Dec 2018

Daytime heating and wind convergence are likely to produce showers over eastern parts of the South Island. This afternoon and evening there is a broad low thunderstorm risk area from Dunedin and Central Otago through Canterbury to Marlborough as indicated on the chart. However from northern parts of Otago through inland Canterbury and inland Marlborough the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate. These thunderstorms could bring heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail 10 to 20mm diameter. There may also be isolated small tornadoes associated with these thunderstorms.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png
Isolated storm activity occurred over Hawkes Bay Ranges this afternoon

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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by tich » Mon 31/12/2018 19:09

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Mon 31/12/2018 17:16
NZstorm wrote:
Mon 31/12/2018 16:46
There is a thunderstorm over Marlborough ranges currently.
Probably the only place for a thunderstorm today.
Pretty much a non-event, except for that one storm in inland Marlborough. Nothing on current radar.

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Re: Eastern SI storms 31/12/2018

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc » Mon 31/12/2018 20:00

Hey. It's coming onto drizzle \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/
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