UK Weather - Summer 2019

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Tue 09/07/2019 19:05

The rather benign weather continues here in the south of the UK with sunny periods and near normal temperatures. Here in Hythe we have not seen any rain for a couple of weeks now and the soil has dried out again. We may see the odd shower on Wednesday and Friday, but the convective forecasts look more promising the further north you are, i.e. not much for the south. At least it is not hot and we get to see the sun from time to time.

There was another nip of air frost yesterday morning (Mon 8th) in the Glens of Scotland as the temperature fell to -0.4°C at Altnaharra. Frost is not a common occurrence in the UK in July and August and a brief (and unscientific) look at recent Met Office climate summaries that list the monthly extremes shows that only 3 years in the period 2008-2019 (12 years) had an air frost in July somewhere in the UK. The lowest temperature in that period for July was just -0.8°C at Kinbrace Hatchery on 13/07/2011.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Sat 13/07/2019 21:42

The dry and fine weather has continued in the south of the UK whilst more northern parts have enjoyed rain or showers at times. It has been warm in the south with 27°C reached in a few places from Wednesday through to Friday with plenty of sunshine. Since the taps turned off in late June, much of the south has been bone dry with quite a few sites reporting <1mm of rainfall since 25th June.

The showers further north produced a rare 'double funnel cloud' at a place called Tarves on the afternoon of Thursday 11th July. Tarves is about 20km NNW of Aberdeen, Scotland.

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/sta ... 1697986561

The CET for July was 16.7°C (+0.8°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was just 4mm up to the 11th (6% of the monthly average) with nearly all of that falling from the Midlands northward.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Tue 16/07/2019 08:41

Today, Monday 15th July, is St Swithun's Day and St Swithun was a ninth century Anglo-Saxon Bishop who is best remembered for a British weather proverb related to if it rains on St Swithun's Bridge in the town of Winchester on his feast day (15th July). The proverb says:

St Swithun's Day if thou dost rain
For forty days it will remain
St Swithun's day if thou be fair
For forty days 'twill rain nae mare

Unfortunately, there is no evidence to suggest that this is true. This year will be a good example as it was dry and sunny in Winchester today, but it will rain there this Friday + Saturday!

The dry and fine weather has persisted in the south and extended north today with the mercury reaching 25°C in both Lancashire + Yorkshire, making them the warmest spots. However, as intimated above, there will be a change in the weather later this week as low pressure becomes more dominant.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by RWood » Thu 18/07/2019 16:48

Summer doing OK in the Channel Islands by the look of it - a UK forum notes that the first 15 days of July have logged 200 hours of sunshine at the Fort Regent site in Jersey - very impressive!!

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Sat 20/07/2019 10:54

There was an interesting visitor to the Met Office rain radar on Wednesday morning when it picked up swarms of flying ants over southern counties of England. I didn't realise it was that sensitive.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/11 ... 8299261952

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49023143

Its going to get rather hot next week - more on this later.

EDIT: There has been some discussion on this matter and the sensitivity of the Met Office radar. When I first read this story I thought it was a late April Fool joke as I cannot recall seeing such an effect on the normal radar setting for rainfall and certainly over such a large area (hundreds of square miles). Some suggest that the sensitivity was put on the wrong setting for the public radar or a software change may temporarily have allowed this effect to be seen. It was noted that rainfall radar derived totals for Scotland on that date were higher (considerably) than expected.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Mon 22/07/2019 07:32

We have had a brief interruption to the dry and warm weather in the last few days as a number of fronts have passed east and northeast over the UK. This brought the first proper rain to the south for over 20 days and proved to be heavy in places with up to 50mm falling over the period Thursday to Saturday (18th to 20th July). There was even a small tornado in the southern suburbs of Manchester.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-49056393

As intimated earlier, the weather is set to warm up over the UK from tomorrow with some very warm air advecting north from France. The SE will see the highest temperatures with 35/36°C certainly possible on Wednesday and/or Thursday. We will also get some decent thunderstorms on Tues/Weds night (for more western areas) and possibly again on Friday.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by NZstorm » Tue 23/07/2019 06:45

Looking like another tornado possible on Thursday. GFS indicating a favourable environment for a supercell or two over north England Thursday afternoon. Near Leeds?

I see the Weather Channel has London on 37C Thursday.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by David » Tue 23/07/2019 07:26

Yes, talk of the UK record from 2003 being under threat. Forecast showing 43C in Paris on Thursday too. This seems to be becoming increasingly common in Europe these days.
Image

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by NZstorm » Thu 25/07/2019 07:00

nice lightning pic from London elevated storms yesterday.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/upl ... =all&w=960

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Thu 25/07/2019 09:28

The heat has been building over the last couple of days and was not broken by last nights thunderstorms. The maximum temperature on Tuesday was 33.7°C at Northolt (Gt London) and 34.3°C today (Weds 24th July) at Writtle in Essex. Most of England and Wales have had two hot and sunny days, but the heat has been concentrated in the SE quarter - as is often the case. The storms last night were notable for their lightning which was described as 'every second' in many places at the storms peak. The link below shows that over 60,000 strikes were recorded. Here in Hythe, we had a good half an hour centred around midnight when the flashes were every second, although the thunder was rather muffled. The storms were elevated and most of the strikes were c-c or in the clouds (sheet lightning), so the sound did not fully reach the ground.

https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status ... 0758181893

Attention is now focused on tomorrow (Thurs 25th July) when the forecast partial thicknesses suggest a potential maximum of 38°C/39°C in and around London. This would break the current UK record which is the 38.5°C recorded at Brogdale, Faversham (Kent) on 10/8/2003. These very high temperatures will likely trigger some sharp storms from the Midlands northwards.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by NZstorm » Thu 25/07/2019 20:22

A supercell risk still in the modelling for N England today otherwise elevated storms.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Fri 26/07/2019 11:08

We didn't quite beat the UK record today, but the July record was exceeded by nearly one and a half degrees. The highest temperatures were recorded in the London area and northwards into East Anglia:

38.1°C at Cambridge NIAB
37.9°C at London Heathrow + Kew Gardens
37.7°C at Writtle (Essex)
37.6°C at RAF Northolt

Some decent storms developed over northern England late afternoon with hailstones up to around 40mm reported in Northumberland.

EDIT: The previous UK record maximum temperature for July was 36.7°C which was recorded at London Heathrow on 1st July 2015.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by NZstorm » Sat 27/07/2019 07:41

Elevated storms produce the most photogenic lightning!


Lightning over Claremont Pier in Lowestoft, Suffolk CREDIT: ROB HOWARTH

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam ... width=1400

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Sat 27/07/2019 11:09

Thanks for the picture link, NZstorm.

The Met Office have revealed a provisional figure of 38.7°C from its climate site at Cambridge Botanical Gardens for 25th July. If verified (which they hope to do by early next week), this will be a new UK record maximum temperature. They also revealed that Brogdale (Faversham, Kent) had recorded a maximum of 38.4°C for this same date.

A rare occurrence (for the UK) of a heatburst was also recorded on Thursday 25th July. This was observed at the Donna Nook reporting station on the Lincolnshire coast and was caused by decaying elevated thunderstorms. The temperature rose quickly from 22°C to 34°C between 8:20 and 8:50 in the evening before falling back to 22°C by 9:15pm. Interestingly, the daily maximum between 6am and 6pm had been only 26.1°C.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/11 ... 7980402688

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Sun 28/07/2019 22:02

After the heat of Thursday it has cooled down considerably and there has been a fair amount of rain in more central parts of the UK as a front has stalled over the middle of the country for the last two days. Here in Hythe, apart from a couple of mm's overnight into Saturday, it has remained dry with sunshine at times and still reasonably warm - the temperature reached 24°C yesterday.

Looking further forward, the weather will become more unsettled as we move into the new week with a small low moving north east into the SW of England on Monday. With a central pressure expected to be around 995mb late Monday, this will be quite deep for the time of year and will give a few days of breezy and showery weather - should be a good chance of a storm or two. But it will remain on the warm side where the sun puts in an appearance.

The CET for July was 18.0°C (+2.0°C) up to the 26th and the EWR was 37mm up to the 25th which is 59% of the monthly average.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Wed 31/07/2019 18:50

After examining the site and the thermometers, The Met Office have accepted the 38.7°C recorded at the Cambridge Botanical Gardens site on Thursday 25th July as the new national UK record temperature. The debate about the suitability (or not) of this site will go on for ever!

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/11 ... 3310849024

The low duly moved across the SW of the UK on Tuesday (around 994mb) and drifted NE to be near the mid-North Sea coast by this morning (Weds 31st July + now 1003mb) giving plenty of showers over the UK, especially on Tuesday. The attached rainfall animation gives a very good idea of the distribution of the showers (and the position of the low) on Tuesday up to 3pm.

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 8661571586

There were many heavy showers and thunderstorms (approx. 18,000 lightning strikes were recorded on Tuesday) and I encountered one of them on the A303 near Wincanton around 7pm - the wipers could not clear the rain quickly enough and had to slow to 20mph.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Thu 01/08/2019 19:33

The low pressure system has brought some very heavy and prolonged showers to parts of the UK in the last two days with significant flooding to some areas of NW + NE England. On Tuesday (30th July) an area of showers and thunderstorms spiralled north over much of the UK, but they became particularly heavy and persistent in North Yorkshire and resulted in a flash flood event in Swaledale. The EA site closest to the main flood (Arkle Town, about 5km away) reported 100mm during the afternoon and a PWS at Langthwaite received 132mm between 1pm and 3pm out of a daily total of 152mm. Looking at pictures of the resulting flooding, this total is quite possible. Some places have also seen hailstones up to 30mm in diameter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-y ... e-49164275

Yesterday (Weds 31st July) saw the heaviest rain shift to the NW of England and especially in and around Manchester, with further flooding. Meanwhile, here in Hythe it has been dry with plenty of sunshine and quite warm. Thankfully we will see some drier weather after further (lighter) showers today and Friday.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Fri 02/08/2019 20:16

The heavy showers and thunderstorms continued over northern England and southern Scotland on Wednesday and Thursday adding to the large rainfall totals of the last week or so as the showers have been occurring in the same general areas. Cumulative totals are high on the higher ground of the Pennines and Peak District - as an example, the totals for the seven day period 26th July to 1st August were 211mm at the Cat + Fiddle site and 177mm at Hayfield New Mills (both EA gauges) in the NW corner of the Derbyshire Peak District. These high rainfall totals have filled the rivers and reservoirs and one of these, at Toddbrook, has been damaged by excess overflow, and this has resulted in an evacuation of the town of Whaley Bridge - roughly 6000 people - on fears of the dam collapsing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-d ... e-49189955

A very photogenic funnel cloud was captured on film over southern Scotland yesterday (Thurs 1st Aug) and seems to have got very close to ground contact. The article mentions 'funnel clouds', but the close proximity of the sightings suggests just the one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... t-49195363

Meanwhile, it has remained dry and sunny in Hythe and quite warm - up to 24°C yesterday.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc » Fri 02/08/2019 20:22

There's nothing much on the Blitzortung regarding lightning strikes over the UK.
Don't they have recorders there?
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Nev » Sat 03/08/2019 07:20

Below is what the Blitzortung detectors picked up on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday… 8-o

Blitzortung UK - Jul 30, 31 &amp; Aug 01 GMT.png
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Sun 04/08/2019 23:29

Thanks for the Blitzortung maps, Nev. Whilst there were thunderstorms on all three days (Tues, Weds + Thurs), they were mostly confined to NW England and SW Scotland. The issue was more with the rainfall being in the same places as it has been for the last week or two and hence the problems with the Toddbrook Reservoir - which are continuing. The dam has not been breached, but a huge amount of water has been pumped out (to relieve the pressure) and emergency repairs are being made. The town of Whaley Bridge remains mostly evacuated and more rain is expected this coming week, much of it convective.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-d ... e-49222956

Here in Hythe it has remained dry and warm with plenty of sunshine. However, there is likely to be some rain and showers here in the coming week.

The final CET for July was 17.5°C (+1.4°C) and the final EWR was 72mm, which is 116% of the monthly average. Most of the rain fell in the second half and in NW England.

Met Office summary for July - note that most places actually had below normal rainfall - as per the map.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... statistics

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Wed 07/08/2019 09:36

The showery weather has continued this week, but again, most of the precipitation has been in more northern parts. Thunderstorms have again featured on Sunday evening and again today - Tuesday 6th August and a particularly potent storm crossed SW Scotland (mainly Dumfries & Galloway) in the early hours of Sunday morning depositing 56.4mm at Dundrennan and 53.4mm at Threave - with all of this falling in just 3 hours.

I have been in both Hythe and Tiverton in the last few days and it has been mostly dry in these locations, although I did get caught in a heavy shower at lunchtime today whilst driving to Wellington (Somerset).

Looking ahead, the weather looks to turn distinctly autumnal by the end of the week with a deep low (about 985mb) approaching the SW of England and then moving NE across the UK. This will bring plenty of rain and showers into the weekend and also near gale force winds to many places - and with the trees in full leaf, this will bring some different issues.

The CET for August was 18.7°C (+2.5°C) up to the 5th and the EWR was 4mm up to the 4th, which is 5% of the monthly average of 77mm.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Fri 09/08/2019 22:21

The deep low pressure is approaching the UK today and has already spread a number of areas of heavy rain northeast across the country overnight with a few embedded elevated thunderstorms - I would have heard one if I still lived in Milton Keynes and if I had been in Tiverton to where I am moving next week! Just heavy rain here in Hythe on the south coast.

The low was at 981mb at 06:00 today (Fri 9th August) on the synoptic chart, and located approx. 150 nautical miles to the SW of Eire. It will move NE across the UK to be off the coast of SE Scotland by 12:00 on Saturday. The strongest winds are on the southern flank and will cross much of the UK tonight and through Saturday, with the Met Office predicting gusts to 60mph in the more exposed places. Quite a few public events have been cancelled on the strength of these forecasts, so it will be interesting to see how things pan out. These sort of events are not unknown in summer, but they do not occur that often in July/Aug.

I have attached the NOAA analysis for 06:00 on Thursday 8th August when the low was at 977mb.
0600 on 8th Aug 2019.png
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Sun 11/08/2019 20:51

Saturday (10th Aug) was a windy day across the UK and especially in more southern parts with showers or longer periods of rain. Some parts of northern England and southern Scotland have already had their monthly average rainfall in the first third of the month.

The wind was the main feature in the south with the following gusts at sites not particularly exposed to the WSW wind direction:

59mph at RAF Cranwell (Lincs) + Southampton Oceanography Centre
58mph at Isle of Portland (Dorset) + Lydd Airport (Kent)
56mph at Thorney Island (Hants)
54mph at Donna Nook + Holbeach (Lincs)
48mph at London Heathrow

At much more exposed locations on the south coast, gusts of 84mph were recorded at the Needles Old Battery (on the Isle of Wight) and 77mph at Hurst Castle (on the Hampshire coast opposite the Isle of Wight). In Wales, a gust of 68mph was recorded at the Mumbles Coast Guard site.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-49304501

The unsettled weather will continue through the coming week with more rain for the north and plenty of showers for us in the south. It will also be on the cool side for the time of year which will make a pleasant change from the warm + humid weather we have had for a couple of months now.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling » Wed 14/08/2019 22:00

The unsettled weather has continued into the new week with plenty of showers and/or periods of rain and with temperatures generally around about normal for the time of the year - although the nights have been a little cooler. On Monday (12th Aug) a number of funnel clouds and waterspouts were observed across the UK with probably the most photogenic seen off the Cumbrian coast at Whitehaven at around 6pm in the evening. The photo on the linked tweet is a good one for the UK:

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/sta ... 9217914881

The CET for August was 17.6°C (+1.6°C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 46mm up to the 12th, which is 60% of the monthly average.

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