UK Weather - Autumn 2018

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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A ridge of high pressure (from a big high over NE Scandinavia, 1045mb) gave the western side of the UK two lovely sunny days on Monday + Tuesday, with very cold and frosty nights. Further east, more central and eastern parts were rather more cloudy with a few showers as the low mentioned in my last post moved north over Germany into Denmark. The morning of Tuesday 30th October was particularly cold in western parts (especially in Wales) with some unusually low night minimums for the time of year - these are the lows at Met Office sites:

-7.3*C at Sennybridge and Llysdinam (both Powys, Wales) + Shap Fell (Cumbria)
-5.4*C at Bala (north Wales)
-5.3*C at Trawsgoed (west Wales)
-5.2*C at Exeter Airport (Devon) + Gogerddan (west Wales)
-5.0*C at Bridgefoot (Cumbria)

The Met Office climate site at St Harmon (in Powys, central Wales) recorded a low of -8.6*C which is very close to the record low temperature for October for Wales of -9.4*C, which was measured at Rhayader on 26th October 1931.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The frosty nights continued into early November and we even managed some white frost on the ground here in Hythe on the 2nd - the minimum at the nearby frost prone Bournemouth Hurn Airport site was -4.9*C on this date. It has turned milder (and more cloudy) since then and it is raining this morning (Sunday 4th) here in Hythe and 11*C. This mild theme will continue through the coming week with some rain or showers at times, but with little chance of any more frost. It should be dry for many for tomorrow's Guy Fawkes fireworks.

The final CET for October was 10.6*C which is bang on the average, and the final EWR was 74mm which is only 85% of the monthly average. It was a sunny month for most of the UK with around 150% of the average in East Anglia and parts of southern England.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have had a few mild days this week and this general theme looks to continue through the weekend into next week. On Monday (5th Nov) the temperature reached 18.3*C at Otterbourne (just NE of Southampton) and 17.6*C at Wiggonholt (W Sussex) and similar levels were reached on Tuesday (17.2*C at Manston in Kent) as sunny intervals further warmed the already mild air coming up from France on both days. The mercury hit 21*C on both these days in northern France.

Today (Weds 7th Nov) has been showery and blustery, but still very mild for the time of the year, with 14/15*C being reached in many places in England + Wales. Whilst the mildness will continue, it will become wet again on Friday (and windy) with the showery weather continuing over the weekend. No sign of winter....yet.

The CET for November was 9.3*C (+1.2*C) up to the 6th (despite two cold days to start the month) and the EWR was 6mm up to the 5th, which is 6% of the monthly average of 92mm.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has become a lot more unsettled here in the UK in the last few days, although it has remained very mild. Heavy rain moved eastwards last night and has cleared this morning (Sat 10th Nov) to a very showery SW flow, and the showers will be particularly heavy and frequent along the south coast of England as the continuing anomalously high SST's come into play. Some places could see up to 50mm of rain if they get caught under a shower train, whilst other areas only get a few mm's - such is the lottery of showers. A similar synoptic set up in October 2000 resulted in 150mm+ falling in parts of Sussex in a day and serious flooding as a consequence. Potentially an interesting couple of days.

Tomorrow will see the 100th anniversary of Armistice Day, and the Met Office have produced a few pages concerning their forecasting during the Great War, and they make very interesting reading. This tweet gives an idea of their output at the time.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/10 ... 8482079744

The other articles (3 in total) can be accessed from this page on the Met Office site:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/l ... world-wars

EDIT: It was wet over much of southern England this weekend - in the 48 hours to 09:00GMT Sunday 54.6mm fell at Wych Cross (Kent), 54.2mm at Goudhurst (Kent), 52.6mm at Charlwood (Surrey). We had numerous heavy showers here in Hythe, but missed the few thunderstorms that did occur.

EDIT 2 (Oct 2019): to re-establish link to WWI articles.
Last edited by Simon Culling on Sat 05/10/2019 12:03, edited 2 times in total.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

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It has remained very mild as we head towards the middle of November with the temperature reaching at least 14/15*C daily. The showery weather persisted into Tuesday, but it has finally dried out today (Weds 14th Nov) and we have sunshine over much of the UK - and it remains mild, and I would not be surprised to see a top of 17*C somewhere today or tomorrow. However, the mild weather will be ending over the weekend as the high pressure centre, currently over more southern parts of Europe, drifts north and ridges to the UK. This will introduce an easterly flow that will get progressively colder into next week. Could be the first taste of winter by the following weekend.

The CET for November was 9.7*C (+2.0*C) up to the 13th, and the EWR was 53mm up to the 12th, which is 57% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by spwill »

Central Europe getting its first taste of Winter next week, EC showing the cold air pushing west onto UK.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

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The mild weather has persisted, although Saturday was a little cooler as the colder air began to arrive from the east. The mercury hit 17.6*C at Kinlochewe (NW Scotland) and 17.3*C at Trawsgoed (west Wales) on Thursday (15th Nov) as a fohn effect enhanced the temperatures locally.

Looking forward, colder and cloudier weather will gradually spread westwards from the continent after what has been a sunny and generally mild weekend, and the temperatures will fall away as the easterly wind picks up from Monday. Some of the showers on Tues/Weds could see a little sleet to higher ground, but a snowfall is not in the forecast. Beyond this, it looks as if slightly milder conditions will return, but more importantly, it looks to remain generally dry for the south.

The CET for November was 10.0*C (+2.6*C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 54mm, also up to the 16th, which is 58% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It did indeed get colder on Mon/Tues with afternoon temperatures on the latter day of 2-4*C over southern England as the easterly breeze brought a mixture of rain and sleet showers. I drove through a few of them whilst driving east from Devon to Hampshire on Tuesday evening, but the skies cleared by the time I got to Wiltshire with a slight frost by 10pm in the countryside. A little snow did settle over the high ground to the south of London, but no more than a dusting - however, this is still quite early in the approach to winter. It is still cold today (Weds 21st Nov) with a few showers, but mostly of rain today. As the skies clear this evening, we will see quite a sharp frost develop over most of the UK.

With regards to the immediate future, the weather looks set to remain cool but mostly dry over more southern parts with any rain more likely to be in northern parts, but any snow will be restricted to higher ground. It all looks rather dull and uninspiring as high pressure persists to our NE with a mish mash of low pressures to our south and west and a south easterly flow.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

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Wednesday night into Thursday morning was indeed cold over the southern half of the UK with a general frost away from the coasts, and some parts of inland southern England had a sharp one. The lowest temperatures I can find at Met Office sites were:

-6.7*C at South Newington (Oxfordshire)
-6.2*C at RAF Odiham (Hampshire)
-6.0*C at Woburn (Bedfordshire)
-5.7*C at South Farnborough (Hampshire)

The amateur site (usually reliable) at Chesham (Buckinghamshire) recorded a low of -7.3*C. This site is a well known frost hollow. In complete contrast, southern coastal sites avoided a frost - the minimums at St Catherine's Point (Isle of Wight) and Swanage (Dorset) were 5.6*C and 6.2*C respectively. Here in Hythe, which is just inland (but on the Solent estuary), we had a low of 0*C with a little hoar frost visible.

The forecast has changed somewhat and the earlier expectations of a move into December with high pressure and cold weather in charge has switched to a more cyclonic pattern with wind and rain and much milder temperatures. This looks more likely, now.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

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It has remained rather cool as high pressure has persisted to our N and NE with a slack easterly flow over the UK. This has given plenty of cloudy weather with rain or showers in many parts, but more western parts have seen a frost at night where the cloud has broken. Friday and Saturday were rather wet in southern coastal counties (including here in Hythe) and felt rather cold as a result. Over 50mm was recorded in places in the SW and here in Hythe we had around 15mm. The weather improved for Sun/Mon with some sunshine and thankfully dry - but we did have a nip of ground frost overnight.

The change in the weather has started today (Tues 27th Nov) after a widespread overnight frost. Cold south easterlies are blowing today with fog giving way to rain here in Hythe by 9am, but the temperature will rise during the day to above 10*C, so much milder later. The rest of the week looks very wet and windy, but continuing to be mild or very mild - could see a 15*C somewhere on Weds/Thurs.

The CET for November was 8.2*C (+1.4*C) up to the 26th and the EWR was 73mm up to the 25th, which is 79% of the monthly average. The latter will likely exceed this average by the end of the month.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The last few days of November (and Autumn) were rather wet and windy over the UK, although it was very mild - the temperature reached 16*C on Wednesday 28th in quite a few sites in the west and south west. The high pressure that has been resident to our east for a while has been pushed away by a strong jet stream coming out of North America/Canada and this will persist into the start of Winter, bringing a succession of low pressures. I was in Tiverton (Devon) for the last couple of days of November and there were quite a few heavy showers on both Thurs + Fri during both the day and night periods - this is not unusual for vigorous south or south westerly flows to push showers well inland in more western areas of the UK. I will likely be moving to Tiverton in the new year, so I will have to get used to another (and different) weather regime again.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Orion »

^ Best wishes for your move, Simon :)
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Thanks, Orion. Moving is always stressful, but on the positive side, I will finally end up in the same town as most of my family. Tiverton has different weather to both Milton Keynes + Hythe, so it will take a while to adjust. Once settled, I will look to restart a proper observing station.

The final CET for November was 8.3*C (+1.8*C) which makes it another very warm month for 2018. That said, there have so far been four other months with a larger positive anomaly than this in 2018. The final EWR was 103mm, which is 111% (Nelson!) of the monthly average, and this was helped by a wet end to the month. November was a sunny month over parts of northern Scotland (170%+ of average), but over most of the UK it was rather dull overall. The attached tweet, which covers up to the 29th, gives maps of temperature, rain + sunshine and shows the great variability of the last two elements..

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/10 ... 5905915904
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The autumn colours here in the UK were very good this year with lots of reds and oranges to compliment the usual yellows and light/off greens. It seemed to peak in mid-November and since then the wind and rain has knocked most of the leaves off the trees and they now have the bare look of winter. It is not always easy to get a photograph to convey the richness of the colours, but the one below I think makes a decent effort in that direction. It was taken on the 11th of November at the boundary of the local cricket field in Hythe.
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