Tropical Cyclone Mona

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Nev
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Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Nev »

TC Mona currently north of Fiji has just been named by FijI Met. JTWC are expecting her to reach Cat 3 as she lines up Fiji's northen main island of Vanua Levu in a few days time.
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Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

TC Mona expected to reach Cat 2 later today and is likely to make landfall on Fiji's main islands by early Sunday morning. Could be close to Cat 3 on landfall according to JTWC.
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Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

TC Mona upgraded to Cat 2 around 0100z this afternoon...
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Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nev wrote: Fri 04/01/2019 15:45 TC Mona upgraded to Cat 2 around 0100z this afternoon...
I see that. Should make a direct hit over the country but it seems that rain is the main risk with this system as the country is quite saturated at the moment.
Proberly, and I hope so, not make too much impact for the country like what Cyclone Winston Peters did a couple of years ago. :x
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Nev »

Mona is in the process of slowly completing a clockwise loop. Convection has dropped off since yesterday afternoon and JTWC currently have her as barely a Cat 1, but expect her to re intensify back to Cat 2 tonight.
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Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Fri 04/01/2019 17:27 Proberly, and I hope so, not make too much impact for the country like what Cyclone Winston Peters did a couple of years ago. :x
You mean a choice that sent a tired cynical 3-term government packing?
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Nev »

Very droll... :rolleyes:

Nadi downgraded Mona to Cat 1 around 0100z this afternoon and JTWC now have her below TC strength, but still expect some further intensification. Landfall now looks likely on Fiji's 2nd main island of Vanua Levu tomorrow night.

Edit: Late JTWC track-map readded.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by RWood »

Any notion of the earliest possible date NZ could be affected by an ex-TC?
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Mona has stumped models and Met Agencies so far. Her loop has enabled wind shear from the NW to turn her into ugly asymmetrical junk in the last 24 hours. Her next move is crucial to her gaining strength. Currently guidance suggests neutral to slightly favourable wind shear on a Southerly track but if she goes too far east she will get smashed again.

8pm NZT IR pic showing signs of life with and deep convective hot towers appearing. Interesting 24 hours of observations coming up for Fijians.

IMO, longer term possible impacts for NZ will depend on the strength of the upper cold core low from the south in mid Jan and its ability to weaken the subtropical ridge enough to open up an exit door for an EX TC or Mona's remnants. At the moment, the ridge looks bullet proof.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Nev »

Monna has completed her clockwise turn and organisation has improved slightly this morning. Nadi now has winds up to 45 knots (just shy of Cat 2) as she heads towards the NE of Vanua Levu.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Nev »

Latest tracks both have Mona's centre passing just to the NE end of Vanua Levu tonight with mean winds up to 45 knots…
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Nev »

TC Mona passed about 90km NE Vanua Levu's Udu Point at around 8pm last night LT according to Fiji Met, and appears to have also spared Fiji's main island group as she begins to curve back around to the SW…
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by Nev »

Mona pretty much fell apart this morning and completely devoid of convection was officially declared an Ex-TC by RSMC Nadi around 1900z this morning.
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Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

RWood wrote: Sat 05/01/2019 09:13
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Fri 04/01/2019 17:27 Proberly, and I hope so, not make too much impact for the country like what Cyclone Winston Peters did a couple of years ago. :x
You mean a choice that sent a tired cynical 3-term government packing?
LOL, but somewhat off topic ;)
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Mona

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Sat 05/01/2019 21:11IMO, longer term possible impacts for NZ will depend on the strength of the upper cold core low from the south in mid Jan and its ability to weaken the subtropical ridge enough to open up an exit door for an EX TC or Mona's remnants. At the moment, the ridge looks bullet proof.
Good news for us, I'm glad this has not been the significant event for Fiji models thought it may have been.
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