UK Weather - Summer 2019

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The first day of the meteorological summer turned out to be the warmest day of the year so far in the UK, with the south east enjoying a warm and sunny day - more cloud up in t'north with rain in Scotland and N Ireland. This is a common pattern in summer with quite a divide in the weather across the islands. The highest temperatures yesterday (Saturday 1st June) were in and around London:

27.6°C at London Heathrow
26.8°C at St James Park + RAF Northolt
26.7°C at Kew Gardens + Cambridge NIAB
26.6°C at Cippenham Sewage Works (Bucks) + Iver Water Works (Middlesex)
26.4°C at RHS Wisley (Surrey)

We might beat this today further to the east in East Anglia (already 26°C at 11am, Sunday) but a weak front is pushing eastwards across the UK and this will introduce cooler and fresher weather for the start of the new week. Still not much rain in the forecast for the south.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

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Some cold upper air across UK for the next week so some afternoon ts/hail to make it interesting.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

As NZstorm has suggested, there has been a change in the weather pattern here in the UK early this week with cooler and less settled weather likely for the foreseeable future. The jet stream has meandered south and we are now on its northern (and cooler) side and in a deep upper trough - this tweet from the Met Office gives a good idea:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/11 ... 7230994434

However, Sunday (2nd June) was the warmest day of the year so far in the UK as the warm air hung on in the far east ahead of a weak cold front. Highest temperatures were:

28.8°C at Weybourne (Norfolk)
28.3°C at Cromer (Norfolk)
28.1°C at Santon Downham (Norfolk)
28.0°C at Brogdale, Faversham (Kent)
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A low has moved due north from Spain in the last few days and crossed into the UK on Friday, and was located near Brighton at 1800 that day at 997mb - it had been as low as 987mb in the Bay of Biscay on Thursday. It brought quite a wide band of rain northwards across much of the UK during Friday giving many places 15-20mm of rain which will the first decent fall for quite a while. In its wake were some very heavy showers and thunderstorms through late afternoon on Friday and into the evening with a few funnel clouds sighted and some heavy falls of small hail. It also became rather windy in southern parts.

The CET for June was 14.1°C (+0.8°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 14mm up to the 6th, which is 21 of the monthly average of 65mm. The latter figure will rise quite a bit in the next few days.

The unsettled weather will continue well into next week as low pressure seems to become established to our south. No sign yet of the jet returning north and giving us some summerlike weather.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by RWood »

Simon Culling wrote: Sat 08/06/2019 21:49 The unsettled weather will continue well into next week as low pressure seems to become established to our south. No sign yet of the jet returning north and giving us some summerlike weather.
I guess the Cricket World Cup games may suffer a bit in the next week or two ...
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The Cricket World Cup will be affected by the weather this week as it is going to be very wet at times, but at the moment, the group games are being played one per day, so perhaps not too much of a problem.

It has been a showery weekend over most of the UK with hail and thunder reported from quite a few places and yet another funnel cloud in Cornwall on Sunday. Despite the predictions, it has not been too bad overall, and the temperature hit 21°C in London today. Here in Hythe, we had plenty of showers on Saturday, but it has been dry today with plenty of sunshine (up to 18°C) and only TCu in the distance.

The Met Office have issued quite a few weather warnings for the next few days as a low becomes established over northern France and the Benelux countries and pushes areas of rain into the UK. The eastern half of the UK will see the worst of the persistent rain, but nowhere will escape it. Upwards of 100mm is predicted for the hills of NE England and 30-50mm generally over eastern England including the south east + London.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Monday was a wet day over much of the southern half of the UK as convectively enhanced rainbands spiralled around a low (1008mb) to our SE over the Benelux countries. Rainfall totals varied widely due to the convective nature, but a number of locations received a deluge as local convergence areas produced almost stationery convective elements with embedded thunderstorms. Highest rainfall totals for the 36 hours to 06:00GMT on Tuesday 11th June were:

82mm at Holbeach (Lincs)
71mm at Wainfleet (Lincs)
62mm at RAF Cranwell (Lincs)
60mm at Kenley (Surrey)

In the 24 hours period 00:00 to 24:00 GMT on Monday 10th June, the Environment Agency gauge at Ham Hill STW recorded 104mm - and this corresponds to the highest totals from radar derived products. Ham Hill is in Kent and near a place called Snodland.

https://twitter.com/WQRadar/status/1138335744127361030

It was also rather chilly for early summer in the south east with maximums of just 10.5°C at Kenley (Surrey) and 10.6°C at Goudhurst (Kent). Even St James Park in central London only managed 12.4°C. In contrast (and sunshine!), Threave in SW Scotland had a maximum of 19.7°C.

EDIT: Added this BBC link for more news on the flooding etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-48591882
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

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Sun Newspaper running this headline this morning

DELUGE DESPAIR UK weather forecast – Brits face weekend washout as festival-goers brave ‘tornado’ and odds slashed on ‘wettest summer ever’
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by spwill »

Unfortunate timing of the low system with the cricket.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has indeed been a wet week here in the UK with most places seeing 30-50mm of rain and some north of 100mm. The wettest regions seem to have been from SE Scotland through northern England to Wales and also the eastern Midlands and East Anglia. The highest rainfall figures I can find from the synoptic stations are for the 4 day (96 hour) period to 1800GMT on Thursday 13th June and were:

135mm at Wainfleet + Holbeach (both in Linclnshire)
117mm at RAF Cranwell (Lincs)
101mm at Pennerley (Shropshire)

Some of the Environment Agency gauges suggests figures closer to 150mm at some sites. There has been surprisingly little flooding reported, but the village of Wainfleet in Lincolnshire has been hit hard:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... e-48646801

With regard to the Cricket World Cup, I think 4 games have been washed out so far and sadly I believe this is already a record number.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Th weather has improved a bit in the last couple of days, but showers are still persisting through the weekend and into next week. It also not particularly warm either which will make watching the cricket a little uncomfortable. Its the big match today - India v Pakistan at Old Trafford. Speaking of the cold, Tuesday 11th June was particularly cold in the Midlands, mid-Wales and south to parts of SW England as heavy rain persisted all day and they remained on the northern side of the front. Lowest maximums at Met Office sites for this day were:

7.6°C at Pennerley (Shropshire)
7.8°C at Lake Vyrnwy
8.3°C at Sennybridge (Brecon) + Libanus (Brecon)
8.8°C at Liscombe (Exmoor, Somerset)

In contrast, SE England was in a different airmass to the south of the front and a little sunshine pushed the mercury to 19.5°C at both Charlwood (Surrey) + Writtle (Essex).

The flooding at Wainfleet continues to cause issues for the residents as many remain evacuated. The lull in the rain will allow some of the water to drain away, but the Environment Agency has had to use 5 articulated lorries to bring in the big pumps needed to start pumping out the village.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... e-48651254

The CET for June was 12.9°C (-0.9°C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 91mm up to the 14th, which is already 140% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have the first 'plume' event of the summer season underway this evening, with the Met Office predicting between 15-50mm in places in the SE of the UK. It has not been preceded by the usual three hot days, but the warmth is over the Channel in nearby France, Belgium, Holland etc. It will be a bit of a hit and miss scenario tonight and into Wednesday, but a few storms have already kicked-off in northern France and showers have formed over southern England. More details of the forecast can be found here:

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/fore ... 2019-06-18

Here in Hythe it has been mostly cloudy today (Tues 18th June) with some outbreaks of rain which were heavy mid-afternoon - but the cloud bases have been quite high and mostly Ac/As with embedded Ns at times and just a few FrCu below forming in the rain. The cloud broke after the rain ended at 4pm and it became very muggy in the hazy sunshine even though the temperature was only 18°C. Could be an interesting evening.
Last edited by Simon Culling on Wed 19/06/2019 06:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

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The convective forecasting looks good. Looks like a non government organisation doing it.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/fore ... 2019-06-18
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

NZstorm, Convective Weather is a private organisation linked to a private sector weather company, WeatherQuest.

The thunderstorms last night were limited to the far SE (Kent, Sussex and Essex) but were described as spectacular by those who witnessed them, with 1-2 hours of non-stop lightning. Here in Hythe we just had rain during the day and a dry cloudy evening - not even a flicker of lightning on the horizon!

Something like 25,000 strikes were recorded over the far SE of England:

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 7707404288

A couple of cells developed in Essex/Suffolk ahead of the main storm area earlier on Tuesday evening and were very photogenic as this picture testifies:

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/sta ... 6060806144

Further down the second tweet, some are blaming the recent limited roll-out of 5G for the wet weather!
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather quietened down gradually after the fireworks of Tuesday night and into Wednesday, although the showers in the cool NW flow did persist until Friday. The racing at Royal Ascot had a rough day with the showers on Wednesday, but the weather has been much better since then and it did not stop Frankie Dettori getting the first four winners on Gold Cup Day on Thursday - I think the odds were 450-1 for this one!

I was in Tiverton yesterday (Fri 21st) and after a few early light showers it became mostly sunny from 9am onwards and pleasantly warm at 20°C. The cool and clear NW flow gave us a nippy start this morning (after the shortest night of the year ironically) with a local ground frost, but the weather is set to warm up quickly this weekend to give us a hot and humid working week ahead with the risk of further heavy thunderstorms, especially early in the week. The detail is not there in the models yet, but we could see at least 32°C by the middle of next week.

The CET for June was 13.3°C (-0.6°C) up to the 20th and the EWR was 102mm also up to the 20th, which is 156% of the monthly average. With the current forecast, the chance of recording a colder than average month has gone and the rainfall figure could well hit twice the normal amount.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Saturday was a lovely day here in Hythe with scattered cumulus, plenty of sunshine and a light SE breeze off the Solent estuary. We had a max of 20°C, but the London area was a little warmer with a maximum of 23.8°C at both Heathrow + RAF Northolt. Today (Sun 23rd) we are begining to draw in the warm air from the continent and the first of a number of bands of thundery rain will develop later in the day - but for more northern parts rather than my neck of the woods. This diagram gives a good visual summary:

https://twitter.com/metdesk/status/1142715385449459712

Noctilucent clouds have been extensively observed over the UK in the last few days and many observers report that they have been the brightest and most extensive they have ever witnessed. This tweet gives a flavour:

https://twitter.com/lighty89/status/1142198526421667840
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The thundery activity last night into this morning (Tues 25th) was restricted to the SE as the plume more or less destabilised over northern France and the moisture higher up in the atmosphere sheared more easterly than expected. Most places just had rain, but there was a decent light show in the far SE. A quite potent storm fired up near Edinburgh in SE Scotland on the Monday afternoon giving over 50mm in a few hours to a couple of stations and caused quite a bit of local flooding. Stirling also had a similar storm in the early evening. This link gives a few details:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... e-48755009

The rather warm and humid weather will persist this week and as a high pressure area builds into the north of the UK we will start to draw in the very hot air off the continent from Thursday and we may well see 32°C reached in the SE by the weekend.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

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Headline in the Sun today!
UK weather forecast – Violent thunderstorms to bring more flooding misery for millions today before 35C heatwave strikes.

Air mass over UK Friday looks very hot with 850mb 23C modeled for SW England.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

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Thursdays forecast sounding for SW Britain showing the warm mid level air mass being undercut by a cooler 40 knot E wind. The 850mb temperature incredibly high on 21C.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Well spotted, Gentleman - there was indeed a very unusual atmospheric set-up over the SW of England on Thursday 27th June which gave hot and sunny weather, especially on the west coast and to the west of any high ground (Dartmoor, Bodmin Moor + Exmoor), but also very windy weather.

I have attached the 1200GMT sounding for Camborne (Cornwall) which shows a very sharp inversion below 900mbs, and the sharpness effectively makes it impossible to lift a parcel from the surface, and thus creates the ingredients for turbulent gusts at and near the boundary layer. The sounding also shows a series of inversion below about 700mb which is also rather unusual.

The west of Cornwall saw some very windy weather, with easterly gusts to 63mph at RNAS Culdrose, 60mph at Camborne and 58mph at Lands End Airport. This is windy for June and especially from an easterly point. The temperature hit 27°C at Exeter Airport, Newquay + Bude.

The METAR for RNAS Culdrose in the late afternoon shows a full gale blowing:

EGDR 271617Z 08041G53KT CAVOK 20/13 Q1019
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Whilst it has been a warm week here generally in the UK, the easterly wind has kept it rather cool in the east and only more sheltered western parts have seen particularly high temperatures. Yesterday (Fri 28th June) was the warmest day of the year so far in the UK with the mercury hitting exactly 30.0°C at Achnagart in the NW Highlands of Scotland. It was run closely by 29.5°C at Porthmadog (west Wales) and 28.8°C at RAF Chivenor (Devon).

Today there has been a subtle shift in the synoptic pattern as a cold front approaches the UK from the Atlantic. With the high (now only 1023mb) now over central Europe this will have the effect of veering the wind to SE to S and this will tap into the incredible heat much of Europe is experiencing at the moment. We will literally have a one-day heatwave in the south with forecasters going for 34/35°C in and around London. Cooler conditions will follow the front eastwards tonight and into tomorrow. This will be ideal conditions for the big match today at Lord's where the Kiwi's take on Australia in the Cricket World Cup. The Black Caps are playing well at the moment and may just shade this game.

The CET for June was 14.1°C (on average) up to the 27th and the EWR was 115mm also up to the 27th, which is 176% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Saturday (29th June) was indeed a warm one in the east and south of the UK with the London area recording the highest temperatures. A cold front moved east during the day giving thunderstorms to N Ireland + Scotland, but the front was dry further south and many places there saw no more than a little Ac + Cirrus without interruption to the sunshine. It has brought cooler and much fresher weather overnight and into Sunday. The highest temperatures on Saturday were:

34.0°C at RAF Northolt + London Heathrow
33.6°C at St James Park
33.5°C at Kew Gardens
33.1°C at Charlwood
33.0°C at Woburn (Bedfordshire)
32.9°C at Teddington Bushy Park + Cippenham Sewage Works
32.7°C at RAF Benson (Oxfordshire)

Here in Hythe it was sunny all day with just a few patches of Ac + 'Jellyfish' Cirrus mid -afternoon. The temperature reached 28°C but was tempered in the afternoon by a gentle SE sea breeze.

The coming week looks to be dry with plenty of sunshine and temperatures near normal, i.e. pleasantly warm.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has been quiet since the weekend and refreshingly cool as a north westerly flow has persisted and a high pressure system to our west (over the near Atlantic) has built and moved near to the UK. There has been plenty of sunshine over England + Wales, but Scotland has seen a little rain at times - this is a common theme in summer.

It has been quite warm in the sunshine (up to about 21°C here in Hythe), but we have seen some cool nights especially in Wales and more rural parts. Yesterday morning (Weds 3rd July) there was a slight frost at St Harmon in Powys (Central Wales) with an air minimum of -0.2°C. Air frosts are not common in the UK in the two summer months of July + August.

The benign weather looks set to continue for the next 3-5 days at least with plenty of sunshine for more southern parts and roughly average temperatures. No sign of a return of the very hot stuff.

The final CET for June was 14.2°C which is just above average (+0.1°C) and the final EWR was 115mm which is 176% of the monthly average. Met Office summary for June in this link:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/07/0 ... onclusion/
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The generally fine weather has continued over most of England + Wales with the mercury rising in the south. The temperature reached 26.8°C at Kew Gardens on Thurs 4th July and 27.6°C at London Heathrow the following day. Yesterday (Sat 6th) the heat and sunshine was confined to more southern parts of England as a weak cold front moved south and 26.3°C was recorded at Otterbourne in Hampshire. Here in Hythe it was mostly sunny with a few Cu + CirroCu, although it did cloud over late in the afternoon as the cold front finally reached the south coast. The picture below was taken at 1pm on Saturday.

It is cooler and cloudy today (Sun 7th - just 16°C mid-morning), but this cloud should break up in the afternoon and the next few days should still be dry with sunny periods over more southern parts. Some showers may begin to appear late in the week, but the general theme is still dry.

The CET for July was 16.1°C up to the 6th and the EWR was nil up to the 5th. The average precipitation for July is 62mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2019

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice photo. Sort of like that in Geraldine today but more of a wavy lenticularis fashion.
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