Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
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- Tornado Tim
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Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Trough expected to start greeting the NI tommorow and bring some squally type showers with possible thunder with them.
Metservice are also including the risk of small tornadoes with any storms that develop.
Upper air temps around -18°C at 500 MB and sfc wind flows from the NE.
Relatively High Cape Values too up too 1000j/kg , most likely due to High DP's with the NE flow.
M/S's t-storm outlook seems pretty good but I would say the most risk would be around Auckland and Waikato and BOP later on the day.......
Metservice are also including the risk of small tornadoes with any storms that develop.
Upper air temps around -18°C at 500 MB and sfc wind flows from the NE.
Relatively High Cape Values too up too 1000j/kg , most likely due to High DP's with the NE flow.
M/S's t-storm outlook seems pretty good but I would say the most risk would be around Auckland and Waikato and BOP later on the day.......
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
i think metservice is being a bit cautious given the events of the other day. the big cape numbers are offshore by the looks of it. ill take a wait and see approach to this.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
wow, the latest sat animation really shows this new low developing explosively in the central tasman
check out the squally SW flow behind it that is intensifying!
check out the squally SW flow behind it that is intensifying!
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Looks to be some interesting weather around tomorrow looks to be some very unstable air masses which could cause some tornados if they keep growing in instability.
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
For reference: Instability in itself doesn't cause tornadoes.Talbotm wrote:Looks to be some interesting weather around tomorrow looks to be some very unstable air masses which could cause some tornados if they keep growing in instability.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
if there is a tornado from this next weather event somewhere, then its going to be more of the "NZ garden variety type"
i.e shorter lived and weaker and smaller and of a 'Landspout" type tornado (as opposed to the Albany Tornado which was from a (small) mesocylone (rotating thunderstorm)
in september 1991 (I think that was the date), an intense cold front with a NE/ NW wind change spawned a tornado that went the full length of the peninsular here where I live, i.e around 20km, so the cold front triggered tornadoes can be relatively long tracked
i.e shorter lived and weaker and smaller and of a 'Landspout" type tornado (as opposed to the Albany Tornado which was from a (small) mesocylone (rotating thunderstorm)
in september 1991 (I think that was the date), an intense cold front with a NE/ NW wind change spawned a tornado that went the full length of the peninsular here where I live, i.e around 20km, so the cold front triggered tornadoes can be relatively long tracked
- NZstorm
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Looks to be some shear there Brian so a mesocyclonic tornado on the cards. Taranaki and Bay of Plenty could be the most favoured spots. Tomorrows set up is not that different to Tuesdays but there is better upper flow tomorrow.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
A NW/SE jetstream of 100/150 nkts would create ideal shear conditions. In tomorrows case the warm front moving infrom the north and low level wind from the same direction may reduce the twisting recqired for a decent tornado.
ttttttttttt
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
wow, big blow up to the NE again
very lightning active too
we have missed that one
but looks like others to come....
very lightning active too
we have missed that one
but looks like others to come....
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Yes, Looks to have been a big thunderstorm on the outer BOP. Its drifting SSE. I think the BOP looks to be the region in the firing line today.
I think the lack of heating at this time of year will keep thunder chances in Auckland quite low.
I think the lack of heating at this time of year will keep thunder chances in Auckland quite low.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
interesting that despite a northerly flow, surface winds are easterly
so some wind shear?
yes, currently the heat source is the warm water to the east of northland
so some wind shear?
yes, currently the heat source is the warm water to the east of northland
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Why suddenly the risk of tornados because we hd one on Wednesday? Looks to me an usual Straight easterly flow as its been much of the last 2 weeks and a SW flow behind.Hope the NW flow predicted pans out and I am wrong.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
once this line of showers/cloud/rain goes through, there is not much left in behind
there is a shower line moving onto the far north...
but otherwise the area of convergence /battle ground with the high to the east is once again to the east of northland/auckland
so all the warnings might need to be lifted for northland/auckland?
( BOP is in the firing line big time this morning though)
but once the sun comes out and get some heating and with the cold front approaching from the west, there might be more heavy shower lines to develop?
there is a heavy shower about to hit auckland city though from the north
instability shower lines also showing up in the western waikato/king country
there is a shower line moving onto the far north...
but otherwise the area of convergence /battle ground with the high to the east is once again to the east of northland/auckland
so all the warnings might need to be lifted for northland/auckland?
( BOP is in the firing line big time this morning though)
but once the sun comes out and get some heating and with the cold front approaching from the west, there might be more heavy shower lines to develop?
there is a heavy shower about to hit auckland city though from the north
instability shower lines also showing up in the western waikato/king country
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
the sat sequence and BOP rain radar does show a small low is developing...heading south towards whakatane...
that could be something to watch
that could be something to watch
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
that small low in the BOP is looking stronger on the rain radar
getting a big hook of rotation
heading more SSW now, somewhere between Tepuke and Whakatane could expect squally conditions as it passed through I would expect
getting a big hook of rotation
heading more SSW now, somewhere between Tepuke and Whakatane could expect squally conditions as it passed through I would expect
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Looks like the persistent heavy rain will be over the BOP this morning, more like showers for Auckland.
Some small heavy showers in the Gulf right now which will catch eastern Auckland next hr.
Some small heavy showers in the Gulf right now which will catch eastern Auckland next hr.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
You know its a crappy day in Tauranga when the port cranes are in the cloud...no sign of any storms yet though. All further down the coast towards Maketu.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
have patches of blue here and can see the shower tops passing to my east
I can tell you they look underwhelming at the moment
but its a dynamic situation and blow up lines could occur at any time in the hauraki gulf /northland/auckland during the day
I can tell you they look underwhelming at the moment
but its a dynamic situation and blow up lines could occur at any time in the hauraki gulf /northland/auckland during the day
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Yes, and there looks to be some surface heating possible? Big patch of blue sky moving in here after a heavy shower.Manukau heads obs wrote:have patches of blue here and can see the shower tops passing to my east
I can tell you they look underwhelming at the moment
but its a dynamic situation and blow up lines could occur at any time in the hauraki gulf /northland/auckland during the day
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Moderate to heavy 17mm here in the last 1.5 hrs.
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Clearing is occurring to the North moving south according to the sat loops.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
Definitely cleared here inTGA now. Mainly high(ish) cloud now and patches of blue sky to the north. All looking very stable as well...Tornado Tim wrote:Clearing is occurring to the North moving south according to the sat loops.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
yes
I think the threat (of severe weather) is now passing,after another hour or so its much diminished, yes?
although having said that, the convergence line that is currently to the north of the NI could wrap around the low in the tasman more and basicly move more SSW and move back onto the coromandel later...
I will be in the coromandel this evening, there for weekend (our anniversary weekend), so can give updates of conditions there
I think the threat (of severe weather) is now passing,after another hour or so its much diminished, yes?
although having said that, the convergence line that is currently to the north of the NI could wrap around the low in the tasman more and basicly move more SSW and move back onto the coromandel later...
I will be in the coromandel this evening, there for weekend (our anniversary weekend), so can give updates of conditions there
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
The Cb cloud showing up over Northland will be part of a line to come through here in perhaps a couple of hrs.
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Re: Squally showers with possible thunder, Upper NI 6th-7th May.
temperature and DP has risen alot behind the warm frontal line
the next thing to watch is the cold pool in the tasman as that gets closer, and all this warm moist air that has been dragged down
the next thing to watch is the cold pool in the tasman as that gets closer, and all this warm moist air that has been dragged down