T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

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NZstorm
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T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like the central North Island convergence zone sets up tomorrow with afternoon thunder from about Ruapehu through to the BOP and over Gisborne as well. With cold upper level air there will be some hail.
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Re: General November Weather

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Oh, good news for me as I am likely to go down to Opotiki tomorrow.
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Nev »

Latest Update:
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 11:35am Sunday 13 Nov 2011

The cold upper trough should move across the central North Island during the afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. This is expected to lead to the development of showers with some thunderstorms from Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, to Taihape and Hawkes Bay. About the ranges of Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay and across the the Bay of Plenty, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. For this area there is also a low threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 25-35mm/hr and hail 10-20mm in diameter.
For eastern Waikato, Taupo, Taihape and central Hawkes Bay, the risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening is considered moderate. Thunderstorms through these areas have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr to localised places and hail.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui, Taranaki, Taumarunui and eastern Waitomo, as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.
Edit: Slight amendment made to initial outlook.
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Yeah baby, Yeah!

Bring it on... I sure hope my boss ordered the part I need and it arrives in timely manner tomorrow morning so I can head down to Opotiki.

Might go and refresh the Rain X on the car windscreen :)
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Lacertae »

Yep good idea, redo the RainEx ! ;)
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by NZstorm »

TT index for 00Z 1pm tomorrow.

A small area of TT55 over the central North Island which is a good thunder indicator.
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Nev »

Tonight's update also has extended the high risk area to include more central parts...
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 8:03pm Sunday 13 Nov 2011

The cold upper trough should move across the central North Island during the afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. About the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay and across to the Bay of Plenty and Taupo, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. For this area there is also a low threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 25-35mm/hr and hail 10-20mm in diameter.
An area of moderate risk of thunderstorms surrounds this area, extending out to Taumarunui and down the Ruahine Ranges. Thunderstorms in this area have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr, also hail, to localised places.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui, Taranaki, and eastern Waitomo, as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Thunder »

Look forward to see what happens up there tomorrow :)
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Sadly I won't be going to Opotiki today. But dependent upon the look of things, there is a good chance I'll have a look regardless.

It'll be interesting to see Metservices update this morning.
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by ricky »

Looks like the action is starting there already!, Tall shower cloud tops around Whakatane showing on the Auckland and Mahia radars so some good height and now first lightning showing from that way.. :)
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like the main convergence line this afternoon will set up from Waiouru to Rotorua. Forecast LI's are -3 today.
Cold air means hail, a lack of shear means the hail will be small.(less than 2cm).
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by jamie »

has a thunder day look to it today. hopefully somthing can float around the hamilton area but looks rather unlikey with the trough so far away from us
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

M/S update out
I think Pirongia/south waikato area might even get something
might be good for a chase later on?
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Nev »

Here's this morn' update...
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Monday 14 Nov 2011
Issued at: 8:41am Monday 14 Nov 2011

A cold upper trough should move across the central North Island this afternoon, while a surface trough drifts westwards across the Bay of Plenty at a time of optimum heating. About the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay and across the Bay of Plenty, and the central North Island high country to eastern Waikato and Taumarunui, there is a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, resulting in localised heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail. Additionally for the Bay of Plenty, Taupo and the ranges of northern Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, there is a moderate threat of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of localised downpours of 30-40mm/hr and hail 15-25mm in diameter.
An area of moderate risk of thunderstorms surrounds this area, extending further west over Waikato and Waitomo and down the Ruahine Ranges. Thunderstorms in this area have the potential to bring heavy rain of 15-25mm/hr and hail to localised places.
A lesser thunderstorm risk is expected late morning and during the afternoon for Manawatu, Wanganui and Taranaki as well as in the ranges of Nelson and Marlborough in the South Island.
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by jamie »

if i were chasing i would stay clear of the early crap. Whakatane looks like it had a one strike wonder earlyer thismorning and looks to be a lot of convective junk around that area going by the radar. Somehwere back inland closer to rotorua could be the spot maybe? Or even further back towards Taupo?
What are peoples thoughts?
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Might Take a drive to the BOP today, is anyone thinking about a chase? perhaps we can link up?
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

cloud breaking up here now....
if there is good build ups in the sth waikato I would been to meet up with somefrom auckland?
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by NZstorm »

I think the set up is too distant from Auckland for me to chase today, and the chase country is poor east of the Waikato.

Also the light upper winds are a negative, 05kts at 500mb over Taupo, 15kts above Rotorua. The weaker upper flow limits any severe potential.
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by NZstorm »

On the Lake Taupo webcam you can see the convection starting to bubble up. http://www.takeabreak.co.nz/accommodation/taupo.asp
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

interestingly there is a CB out to sea from here....to my west...
looks like a convergence....between the SWer, and lighter winds in the ridge to the north?
picking up more and more strikes in the eastern BOP from here now...

M/S hi res for waikato/BOP (thanks M/S!)
http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... last-2-hrs
shows some showers developing in the sth waikato now
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yup some striking going on now :)
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by jamie »

WOW thats a neat image from MS! Love the high res. That storm due east of Taupo township is a decent one!.

Tim - did you overlay the radar onto google earth there?
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the taupo cam NZstorm posted is showing some great looking CB's now over the central NI mountains :)

that CB over Taupo town now blew up real quick just to the north of there, going by the rain radar
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie.haultain wrote: Tim - did you overlay the radar onto google earth there?
Yup, and ontop on WWLN lightning data too :D
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Re: Possible T-Storms for Central-East N.I. - Nov 14

Unread post by jamie »

neat... now loop it at high res and 7 mins.... thanks Tim! haha

jeez your not wrong Brian... awesome web cam shots from this afternoon. look really strong updrafts.
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