Herald article about summer

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Michael
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Herald article about summer

Unread post by Michael »

Confusing :? "keep winter wollies handy-summer could be cool"

quote.The experts agree that the weather is displaying "mild elnino" conditions when the westerly trade winds across the pacific weaken bringing less warm surface water to the seas around n.z and aust and more relatively cold dry weather????


easterly trade winds :roll: :?:
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Re: Herald article about summer

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Michael wrote:Confusing :?


easterly trade winds :roll: :?:
I'd trade the easterly winds for anything else anyday, except for when cold fronts are due :roll:

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Unread post by RWood »

Get a grip you assorted moaners! Where do you think you are? Noosa? If you don't like NZ temperatures, move to Australia or somewhere. NZ has always had changeable weather. I'm sick and tired of reading hyper-exaggerated nonsense in the papers - eg to the effect that winter and spring in the southern portion of the North Island were "the coldest and wettest on record". Absolute bloody nonsense. To refute just one of these assertions (to do more takes too much space), a perusal of NIWA's summaries will show, for example, that NZ's mean winter temperatures were everywhere normal or very close to it, with June's warmth balancing August's cold. November mean temps for NZ were +0.6 over the normal.

Next thing someone will be going on about the summers of the distant past....

I haven't bothered looking at this site for months - now I remember why!!
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Unread post by NZstorm »

I haven't bothered looking at this site for months - now I remember why!!
Thankyou for your moan RWood.

Yes, sea temperatures are particularly cold around NZ at the moment. I don't recall such low sea temps. Over 2C below the long term average. And that is bound to have a sizeable impact on temps this summer.
November in Auckland was cooler than normal but very sunny and dry.
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

RWood wrote:I haven't bothered looking at this site for months - now I remember why!!
Hi, thanks for your first post. Please don't get disgruntled about comments on this site. You must understand though that on this sort of "forum" it is hard to pick up on members characterists. Some of their comments (and mine) are just... who they/we are... and hopefully we all recognise this as we spend more time here.

We all have our own traits but we are all here for the same reasons... observations, knowledge, discussions and sharing our passions with the weather, good, bad or just some crappy high that won't move.

So, if you keep a regular look you will find that there are some great people here with some great opinions. Look forward to hearing some more of yours?
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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Unread post by ricky »

I saw the Niwa report of lower than evarage temperatures for November in the North, my logs of temerature here in Grey Lynn show it was somewhat warmer this year.. as average temperatures across night and day.
All parameters of the measurements were identical so i guess shelter from some wind directions and higher sunshine hours could be the cause? Or having the average not just include maximum temperatures?

So warmer or cooler...? :)
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Unread post by RWood »

Ricky,

The quoted*** site in Auckland showed a deficit of just 0.2C for November mean temp (=1/2*(mean daily max + mean daily min)), and this small deficit would be compensated for by the relatively high sunshine hours and lowish rainfall, even it was rather windy. (***Source: NIWA Nov. report from their website). Some parts of the North had larger deficits but the month as a whole was 0.6deg warmer for NZ.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

RWood wrote:
........ I haven't bothered looking at this site for months - now I remember why!!
so why then have you started posting?? :?
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

03 Stormchaser wrote:
RWood wrote:
........ I haven't bothered looking at this site for months - now I remember why!!
so why then have you started posting?? :?

...probably bored... :-w ;)

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Unread post by Weatherlawyer »

Back home in civilisation we have a name for the kind of weather that gets people talking: Singularities.

They are a genera type of spell most noticeable among people who live in climates where the weather is usually unsettled and spells rarely last a week.

I suppose you have them there do you?
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Rwood, I think you shoudl not rely on Niwas averages...they are only usefull for comparisons
personaly I dont give much weight to a average derived from only 2 numbers....the days high and the days low...
you are way better to average every 1 minute readings for every hour for every day of the month or year
my software does that and comes up with averages, which I then compare with other months or years I have, and quite often are oposite or worse/better than niwa, and more in line with what it actualky seemed like

i.e, the days hi temperature might have been for only a short period of time, but the rest of the day was much colder.....and yet that short period hi temperature will be used for the average for the day.....not good me thinks

and, yes, we all know michael exagerates things badly.
and you either get used to that and accept it and see it as a colourfull part of the forum or you stay away, LOL
(as I dont think he is going to change)
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Unread post by TonyT »

Weatherlawyer wrote:Back home in civilisation we have a name for the kind of weather that gets people talking: Singularities.

They are a genera type of spell most noticeable among people who live in climates where the weather is usually unsettled and spells rarely last a week.

I suppose you have them there do you?
What an arrogant and condescending post. Here in the 'wap-waps' we have manners and respect for each other. New Zealand isnt the colonies anymore chappie, and if you want to be part of a New Zealand forum then you had better stop treating us as if we were.
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Unread post by Skywatcher »

Back home in civilisation ...
Weatherlawyer, I don't know if you were trying to be funny but there's no indication that was the case.

It just looks like a thinly veiled insult to New Zealand ... unless you're trying to be provocative.

Neither of which are welcome here.
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Unread post by RWood »

[quote="Manukau heads observer"]
i.e, the days hi temperature might have been for only a short period of time, but the rest of the day was much colder.....and yet that short period hi temperature will be used for the average for the day.....not good me thinks

..Point taken, but it seems to be generally accepted that over longer periods of months and years even these 2 simple numbers give a pretty good proxy. Years ago Met service gave some "correction" tables for a number of prominent sites based on detailed comparisons between 2-figure means and multi-daily collections of values.

In any event of course, over an area as large as greater Auckland there are bound to be significant site-to-site differences...the real point is that the Michaels of this world are trying to imply that their weather should somehow be different from what could reasonably be expected...Auckland is not Perth, Yuma, Honolulu or even Sydney. Anyone wanting a cure for wind ills should try Wellington for a while, and then leave...(I live there, accept it and note that in fact over the last 30 years the wind speeds as judged by max gust values have actually dropped a little!)
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

did you see that it was the trees growing taller that reduced the windspeeds recorded in wellington?

the max/min aveerage thing is what we have lots of long term data for, and what we can compare with, but it does need to be take with a grain of salt, and I dont think it be relied on too much for any 1 station....but if all the stations show cooler, pooled together, then thats good.

weatherlawyer:are you talking about spells of weather pattern I presume (first time i read that i thought it meant spells of magic! LOL


re michael:
yeah, we have suggested he live in say California (l lived there for a year (inl and valley)
no wind
no clouds
for 6 months
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Unread post by Shepherds Valley WX »

LOL :) Good on ya Weatherlawyer.... you sure know how to win friends and influence people. :D

PS no personal attacks were mentioned here! 8) 8)
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Unread post by RWood »

[quote="Manukau heads observer"]did you see that it was the trees growing taller that reduced the windspeeds recorded in wellington?

Not so simple: I have looked at the W'gton wind thing very carefully. At Kelburn near the Carter observatory there's an enclosure where, among other standard things, wind run (equiv. of course to average speed) was measured from 1928 to 1997. It's true that the amounts of surrounding vegetation varied over time, and it was concluded that this was messing up comparisons. Obs. stopped in 1997, as noted.

HOWEVER, there is also a pole about 15-20 metres high, on top of the nearby Met. Service building, and a pressure-type device that has been used to record maximum daily gust values since 1967. These values are not influenced by vegetation changes. I have obtained records from NIWA and these indicate the average daily maximum gust (quite a suitable number for Wellington, where it is the gustiness that is the most noticeable thing) has been lower in the latter period - 1967-1983 is about 8-10% higher than 1984-2003. For the period 1972-2003, the overall annual average has been exceeded only 2 times since 1983 (1988 and 1998). I have talked to many people who have lived in W'gton for 25 years or more, and all agree that the wind is less noticeable than it used to be, even if they often exaggerate the extent of the change.

The TV1 story about the vegetation simply commented on the old Observatory data.

On a quite different line, Wellington City has not had a single year in the 75% plus (percentile) rainfall category since 1979, though 2004 might just scrape in courtesy of the very wet start in Jan-Feb.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

niwa also noted a change around 1977, with more westerlies, then a change again back
and it looks to be a long term pacific cycle
i.,e there are some long term cycles, 25 years some of them
then shorter ones, like a 11 year elnino cycle, etc etc
and then you get cycles that reienforce each other, others that dampen each other, etc etc

so it does not suprise me the windspeed is a bit less...but could be part of a cycle and it could get worse again...as part of a cycle...

we cetainly dont seem to get the big sw or nw blows here like we used to as much
but then its a memory thing
i.e you remember the worst
but then you forget all the times where the weather was not bad in between, etc
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