Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

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Peter
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Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Peter »

See that the Metvuw 7 day forecast charts show an intense depression approaching New Zealand on the 4th January - is this the remains of Cyclone Freda?
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Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by jamie »

It sure is. Still a long way out but interesting to watch. Refer to the weather abroad topic, which will need it's title to be changed today no doubt. discussion regarding this storm is there at the moment.
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes well worth a thread even this far out I believe. The last 4 or so runs have been very consistant even thios far out with plotting it. The latest just through shows the low making a direct hit on the north island. Will be very interesting to monitor the lead up to this one.
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by jamie »

Gfs on metvuw have it hitting the north island with some intense winds on the SW corner of the storm
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by David »

GFS still sticking to a direct hit on the North Island! Though ECMWF is predicting nothing of the sort at this stage
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Cook »

WeatherWatch is picking Freda to bring wet and windy conditions around Thursday.

"The weather will remain dry until Cyclone Freda brings back the wet and windy conditions around Thursday.

WeatherWatch analyst Richard Green said Kiwis should be prepared for plenty of rain.

Warnings have been issued for parts of the South Island. Milford, Greymouth, Hokitika and Nelson are expected to bear the brunt of the bad weather, according to Green."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=10856591
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

GFS is not picking Freda to hit the North Island anymore.
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Michael »

Unsure why westcoast south island be worse as models have it to the east as typically the path.means southerlies
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Cook »

This article is on the whole a bit odd

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=10856591

" Freda is travelling about 90km/h but will speed up by the time it hits New Caledonia.

"Cyclones tend to gain speed over warmer waters and Freda would have had time to get up to (about 130km/h) by the time it gets to New Caledonia," he said."

It seems like something has been misunderstood. Did he mean wind speeds of 90km/h or "travelling" (sic) at 90km/h?
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Cook »

Michael wrote:Unsure why westcoast south island be worse as models have it to the east as typically the path.means southerlies
Maybe they mixed Freda up with a mid latitude frontal system? Would not surprise me given the confusion that the Herald article seems to suffer from.
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by jamie »

That is a terrible article. I cant make much out from it. It seems to be confused on a number of levels.
At its peak, Evan travelled at 270km/h
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by mattyj46 »

jamie wrote:That is a terrible article. I cant make much out from it. It seems to be confused on a number of levels.
At its peak, Evan travelled at 270km/h
:crazy: #-o
As was their article about Ex-tropical cyclone Mitchell,which has now since been removed, posting how Cyclone Mitchell had formed but intact at the time of the article it was Ex tropical Cyclone Mitchell
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I dont think Richard would have said that, just read the Freda article on the WW webiste which is correct. I think the author here has taken his creative licence abit to far! :p
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Since WW is owned by NZHearald I am very surprised they would skew what WW say's....
How odd..... I suspect Phil will be having words to NZH if Richard didnt actually say what is in the article.

Anyway this thread is starting to go OT, back to Freda :)
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Nev »

mattyj46 wrote:As was their article about Ex-tropical cyclone Mitchell,which has now since been removed, posting how Cyclone Mitchell had formed but intact at the time of the article it was Ex tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Presumably you're referring to an article posted on WW's site at 2pm yesterday (Sunday), as opposed to the NZ Herald article above. That story was actually based on a 24-hour-old Weatherzone story, which stated that, "it is expected to intensify into a category 2 system on Saturday evening and Sunday morning while remaining well offshore". WW's version said that it expected to intensify into a Cat 2 system on Sunday. It never did get past Cat 1 and the BoM declared it an Ex-Tropical Cyclone less than an hour after WW posted its version. So not surprised they pulled the story.

Also note that a previous WW story posted at 11am yesterday claimed that Freda had been upgraded to Cat 2, despite RSMC Nadi upgrading it to a Cat 3 at least 4 hours earlier. And this morn's story still claims it's a Cat 2, even though RSMC Nadi upgraded it to a Cat 4 early yesterday arvo and has remained so ever since, although it now appears to be weakening.

I also read a media story the other day, which still claims that Evan reached Cat 5... obviously a throw-back from 'NZ's Whether News Authority'. lol ;)

P.S. I don't think WW has been owned by APN for some time, although they obviously still have close affiliations with the NZ Herald, 1ZB, etc.

P.P.S. Re the models, JTWC has repeatedly remarked that, 'Dynamic model guidance remains in poor agreement and continues to be erratic [or inconsistent], with the exception of ECMWF. The JTWC forecast continues to favour the ECMWF solution and is consistent with the previous forecast'. Currently, ECMWF ultimately has Freda transitioning well off the Queensland coast, in which case it would kinda make this thread redundant.
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by RWood »

And so much for the older suggestion (if it really was from GFS) of a "direct hit on New Zealand". Reminds me once again why I ignore these things until events are much "closer" - and why I ignore 10-day weather forecasts 99% of the time.
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Re: Cyclone Freda and New Zealand

Unread post by Michael »

models have it ecmwf fizzling out and some other depression of tropical origin east of us affecting in a weeks time
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