2013 Snow Storms that Hit NZ, Past, Present and Future

[Talbotm]

What will 2013 hold in the way of snow storms??? According to some it will be a great season with the neutral El nino and La nina. Others say no as the planets warming up to much??. I think the weather is just getting more extreme we are setting new records regularly now days. What are you opinions Guys??

[Storm Struck]

This is a very interesting yet sensitive topic ive found people are split two ways in thier own right opinions, is it just we are more up to date with the technology in not only measuring such weather events but the coverage we provide through cellphones/cameras etc.
Is it the population growing and spreading out more as towns and cities grow, or are we just more aware of the changes after all the hype we have had since the doom and gloomers have come apon us.

Some of above is possibly true in many cases, but when you look at the likes of USA and the UK this winter just gone for example they had big snow dumps and in areas which dont normally see snow.
Its also seen snow to very low levels even just on Sunday gone when its pretty much thier summer now, 7 feet of hail in Mexico unheard of but it happened on Sunday.
We are breaking alot of records worldwide but is it just public interest

I say sit back and take what winter throws at us ( although i do feel we could have a few decent snowfalls ) but then i said that last year after we got the June 6th 2012 snowfall and the rest of winter was just rain.
The patterns seem to change every year from 1998-2005 we didnt get any significant snowfalls to sea level here in north canterbury i know south and mid canterbury in August of 2004 but not here.
September 19th 2005 was the first in awhile with 8cm on the ground.
June 12th 2006 was the big snowstorm for inland areas with 1 metre over Methvan and 35cm in Ashburton while a mere 7cm settled here.
2007 nothing
2008 nothing
2009 7th June 10cm here
2010 nothing
2011 July 16th 15cm of snow and the August snow of 20cm
2012 as i mentioned above.
So theres no great cycle of such it just depends on the current situations of El Nino and La Nina.
Thats my take anyway.

[Skywatcher]

Snow to low levels probably isn't the best indicator because of big variations over small distances.

My own record of snow falls since moving to Templeton is mostly based on whether I took any photos of them...

2001 - None worth photographing (a brief fall one evening in June but the dusting that settled was gone after an hour or two).
2002 - 17-18th June - power was off here from about 8pm for four hours after a branch brought power lines down.
2003 - 5th July
2004 - 15-16th August
2005 - 19th September
2006 - 12th June, dusting on 22nd June
2007 - None worth photographing
2008 - 7th June
2009 - None worth photographing
2010 - None worth photographing
2011 - 24-25th July, 15-16th August
2012 - 6th June

[snowstormwatcher]

These are the events that I can Remember in Fairlie When I lived there, Not overly significant given the altitude of 300m.

2007- 9cm on the 6th July.
2008- 6cm in June Plus 3cm in August
2009- a couple of 3-4cm falls
2010- 11cm 8th of August plus 5cm in June.
2011- 7cm august 15th
2012- 14cm 7th June. Plus 4cm in October and a dusting November.

No one really knows what will happen this year but given trends of the last 5 years I dont think South Canterbury will see much.

[Orion]

Anecdotal evidence only: I have been told that there was a year, perhaps between 1914-1918, in which there was "snow on the ground in every month of the year" near to this area of Mayfield...

[snowstormwatcher]

Anecdotal evidence only: I have been told that there was a year, perhaps between 1914-1918, in which there was "snow on the ground in every month of the year" near to this area of Mayfield...

I got told something similar that there was snow on Mt Michael (500m ASl) Between Fairlie and Geraldine every month of the year. Cant remember the year but it was many years ago. I was a bit skeptical at first but after seeing snow in November and Sleet in January in Fairlie Township I think it is quite possible.

[mikestormchaser]

Snowstormwatcher this year may be your year, forget about the trends over a period of years as i dont think it means anything.
You would have loved it there in 2005 where the biggest dump of snow in ages hit fairlie and they were without power fior about a week in parts.
To me the weather does what it does each year and when certain systems come together they come together, so its pretty straight farwed really.
Yesterday might be the entree of things to come this season here, having said that we may not see another polar blast that is that cold either.. ' just saying' with a prey that im wrong. lol

[NZstorm]

I think the weather is just getting more extreme we are setting new records regularly now days. What are you opinions Guys??

If the weather in NZ is getting more extreme I am not seeing it.

In some parts of the world there are extremes happening but luckily not in NZ.

[Talbotm]

Some interesting takes on it all. I feel La nina and El nino have a fairly big impact on what the snow storm situation will be like for the winter season. For me coming from Wellington and being here for the last 6 years off and on.

The storms seam to be getting more intense i know last year we had over half a metre out here in waddington and -10 the snow was on the ground for 2 weeks. That is the worst i have ever seen in a relatively low lying area. I also know that a storm not sure if it was last year or the year before that had snow fall in wellington city and many places that don't see the snow further north also had snow at my parents in Kaitoke just north of Wellington situated at 300msl they had 45cms which is the biggest the area up there has ever had.

This last storm that we just had was super cold and lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it I think if the winds had change to a more straight southerly rather than the WSW or SW the snow would have been far more widespread.

I also am mystified by how much snow actually fell as a southerly storm with no real warm moisture to mix doesnt normally produce large amounts of snow?? Did anybody else find that strange on this last storm????

How much of an impact do you guys think The Elnino and la nina actually have????

[NZstorm]

I also am mystified by how much snow actually fell as a southerly storm with no real warm moisture to mix doesnt normally produce large amounts of snow?? Did anybody else find that strange on this last storm????

The heavy snowfalls for the Dunedin to Southland area always occur on the polar southerlies with low PW values. (precipitable water). The convection can really chuck the snow out.
That contrasts to inland Canterbury where the snow falls are associated with higher PW values and more warm advective type scenarios.

[Manukau heads obs]

I think the weather is just getting more extreme we are setting new records regularly now days. What are you opinions Guys??

well have just smashed the wettest may on record in this area, on the back of a very long dry spell
yes I think there climate is getting more extreme (from one extreme to another)

[Richard]

yes I think there climate is getting more extreme (from one extreme to another)

Yes i think so as well,ive said it before on here in that accumulating snowfalls to sea level are happening more now in the last 23years,looking at Jason's list for Kaiapoi there were falls during the 8 out of the 11 years,before the 90's they only happened about 1 year out of 10.Ask any old timer about how often there was a ground covering snowfall to sea level in the CHCH/Kaiapoi/Rangiora area's they will tell you of only one ,1945,my mother has a photo of there front fence in Papanui and in it it showed that there was about 15-20cm on the posts and then looking at photos of the main street of Rangiora it looked to have been no deeper than some of the more extreme snowfalls seen in the last 23 years.

[tich]

Interesting to note that in 2011, snow lay to sea-level around Akaroa in both the July and August events. (heaviest in August) This happens far less often than in Chch, usually in exceptionally cold southerly outbreaks when snow also reaches unusually low levels in the North Island. However, on 2 previous occasions (July 1995 and August 1998), the sea-level snow on Banks Peninsula didn't even reach Chch, probably due to the moisture and shower bands only clipping the peninsula.