Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- David
- Posts: 7596
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 424 times
- Been thanked: 834 times
- Contact:
Re: General June Weather
Models are playing around again with a polar scenario around 20th June and beyond... some insane 850mb temps showing up (-10 in parts of the South Island)
Map from here http://nz.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html
Map from here http://nz.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 1531
- Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 150 times
- Been thanked: 272 times
Re: General June Weather
Yeah David all the models are onto it and have been consistent the last number of runs, it has it arriving Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Will wait until Monday though before I start talking about it too much on here!!
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: General June Weather
The very cold air is coming mid week but the 12Z European pushes the system through much faster than the gfs.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
- Posts: 3460
- Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
- Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: General June Weather
Yes GFS this morning is insane. Showing about 50mm for this event but for the polar air next week 120mm with thickness around 525. It will change obviously, imagine if it didn't, we could have snow up to the windows
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- Richard
- Posts: 8416
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1686 times
- Been thanked: 808 times
Re: General June Weather
Your right,if it stays on track it could be one very nasty snow fallCHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Yes GFS this morning is insane. Showing about 50mm for this event but for the polar air next week 120mm with thickness around 525. It will change obviously, imagine if it didn't, we could have snow up to the windows
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2886
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1161 times
Re: General June Weather
In 1918, shortly after the Coleridge power station opened, there was a very heavy snowfall which covered the Canterbury Plains and foothills. The power went off, and the mayor of Christchurch offered a reward (10 guineas I think) to whoever could get to the power station to confirm they were alright. Two blokes skied from Upper Riccarton to Coleridge in roughly a straight line (ie over the top of the fences). I would imagine (although we have no way of knowing) that the weather situation which brought that event would have been similar to the one predicted for this week.CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Yes GFS this morning is insane. Showing about 50mm for this event but for the polar air next week 120mm with thickness around 525. It will change obviously, imagine if it didn't, we could have snow up to the windows
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4880
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 396 times
Re: General June Weather
Does anyone have maps they can dig up of the 1992 event? I think ive asked this before but I just want to see if this low is similar because I seem to remember it was a two part system.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
-
- Posts: 1531
- Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 150 times
- Been thanked: 272 times
Re: General June Weather
Try this site storm struck, it has archived weather data/maps that go way back for all over the world: http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdi ... e=map&dir=
-
- Posts: 4027
- Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
- Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
- Has thanked: 1408 times
- Been thanked: 342 times
Re: General June Weather
To which 1992 event do you refer? the snowfall early in July (eight to ten inches here) where everyone rushed about taking "snow photos" or the August snowfall, thigh-deep and overwhelming?Storm Struck wrote:Does anyone have maps they can dig up of the 1992 event? I think ive asked this before but I just want to see if this low is similar because I seem to remember it was a two part system.
I recall that winter was particularly dull and dreary through July and August, quite apart from the snows.
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4880
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 396 times
Re: General June Weather
That's what it was two different events , yeah I mean the second bigger one Christchuch had over 35cm.Orion wrote:To which 1992 event do you refer? the snowfall early in July (eight to ten inches here) where everyone rushed about taking "snow photos" or the August snowfall, thigh-deep and overwhelming?Storm Struck wrote:Does anyone have maps they can dig up of the 1992 event? I think ive asked this before but I just want to see if this low is similar because I seem to remember it was a two part system.
I recall that winter was particularly dull and dreary through July and August, quite apart from the snows.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- Richard
- Posts: 8416
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1686 times
- Been thanked: 808 times
Re: General June Weather
That July one was more a North Canterbury event where the farm i was working on got 75 -80cm,i cant remember all the particular details but i'm sure that on was a area of slow moving low pressure over the top of the South Island.Orion wrote:To which 1992 event do you refer? the snowfall early in July (eight to ten inches here) where everyone rushed about taking "snow photos" or the August snowfall, thigh-deep and overwhelming?Storm Struck wrote:Does anyone have maps they can dig up of the 1992 event? I think ive asked this before but I just want to see if this low is similar because I seem to remember it was a two part system.
I recall that winter was particularly dull and dreary through July and August, quite apart from the snows.
-
- Posts: 4027
- Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
- Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
- Has thanked: 1408 times
- Been thanked: 342 times
Re: General June Weather
Somewhere I have the Press with the weather-map for that August snowfall: I recall for sure there was a depression just off the Canterbury coast; there were quite strong southerly or SE winds blowing very fine snow into deep drifts here. Extraordinary event; unforgettable.
The "depression off the Canterbury coast" scenario has brought us other good snowfalls as well, just can't recall the dates though.
The "depression off the Canterbury coast" scenario has brought us other good snowfalls as well, just can't recall the dates though.
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: General June Weather
Looking nasty for the South Island East coast wednesday afternoon through to thursday afternoon. Seriously, if the models stay the same we are looking at 20cm plus in chch
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
-
- Posts: 466
- Joined: Mon 27/05/2013 19:16
- Location: Inland mayfield 310asl
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 7 times
Re: General June Weather
Metservice have just updated their Canterbury forecast for wed/Thur - snow to low levels. I think we are looking at a significant weather event
Auckland & Tauranga
- CHCH Weather Chaser
- Posts: 3460
- Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
- Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: General June Weather
Wow imagine that! Ofcourse the GFS will downplay whats its showing at the moment as we get closer to the time surely...its just a question of whether it downplays it heaps or just a little to still be very significant.TonyT wrote:In 1918, shortly after the Coleridge power station opened, there was a very heavy snowfall which covered the Canterbury Plains and foothills. The power went off, and the mayor of Christchurch offered a reward (10 guineas I think) to whoever could get to the power station to confirm they were alright. Two blokes skied from Upper Riccarton to Coleridge in roughly a straight line (ie over the top of the fences). I would imagine (although we have no way of knowing) that the weather situation which brought that event would have been similar to the one predicted for this week.CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Yes GFS this morning is insane. Showing about 50mm for this event but for the polar air next week 120mm with thickness around 525. It will change obviously, imagine if it didn't, we could have snow up to the windows
Few spots of rain every so often today. Nothing really wetting the ground though. If the model runs hold true for this over the next 24 hours, even although its about 4-5 days out it may warrant some early warnings to the media so people can stock up? It does look a very serious situation at the moment.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
-
- Posts: 1531
- Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 150 times
- Been thanked: 272 times
Re: General June Weather
2C max on Friday now the metservice is forecasting for Darfield. not a huge anount of moisture but some extremely chilly temps, especially with the wind factored in. i wonder when the Metservice will issue a warning on this, in the past they have been quite cautious with these kind of systems...
- Richard
- Posts: 8416
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1686 times
- Been thanked: 808 times
Re: General June Weather
Should be issued in the severe weather outlook due any minute i would think.Bradley wrote:2C max on Friday now the metservice is forecasting for Darfield. not a huge anount of moisture but some extremely chilly temps, especially with the wind factored in. i wonder when the Metservice will issue a warning on this, in the past they have been quite cautious with these kind of systems...
- CHCH Weather Chaser
- Posts: 3460
- Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
- Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: General June Weather
Yes mention of heavy snow in the outlook now.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- CHCH Weather Chaser
- Posts: 3460
- Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
- Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: General June Weather
Latest gfs run just through has significantly dropped moisture for the polar blast next week but still some moisture there and thickness down to 512!
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: General June Weather
Yip lets hope it pick up again with the next run. what time will that be? anyone know? but yes thickness 512, lowest i have seen it. Bitterly cold tooCHCH Weather Chaser wrote:Latest gfs run just through has significantly dropped moisture for the polar blast next week but still some moisture there and thickness down to 512!
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
-
- Posts: 466
- Joined: Mon 27/05/2013 19:16
- Location: Inland mayfield 310asl
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 7 times
Re: General June Weather
Correct me if im wrong but after this intense polar outbreak there seems to be another lining itself up for a direct hit a couple days after? Thickness around the 520 mark
Auckland & Tauranga
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st
Yes, looking like a repeat of August 2011 or even 1992. Still a while out but seems to be holding well. Moisture back off a little on the last run but still going for a decent amount on the South Islands east coast. We will know more by Monday or Tuesday but will be interesting to see what the next run says in about 1 hour when it comes through!
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
- CWUweather
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Wed 10/08/2011 17:27
- Location: Burnside, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD! Moisture has picked up hugely bloody hell!!!!!!! although thickness back up at bout 525mb still, look narly!
Live updates from Northern Christchurch!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
-
- Posts: 3476
- Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
- Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: General June Weather
Yes, got them on an old Met Society newsletter. (in notable weather events written by Trevor McGavin) Latest ECMWF for Thursday looks strikingly like the August 1992 event. Other models may be less extreme, but still a significant polar blast for both islands.Storm Struck wrote:Does anyone have maps they can dig up of the 1992 event? I think ive asked this before but I just want to see if this low is similar because I seem to remember it was a two part system.
- Richard
- Posts: 8416
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1686 times
- Been thanked: 808 times
Re: Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st
Looking at the BOM maps for Antarctic for Wednesday the polar airmass comes right from the Ross Sea area and a ridge sinks south,the perfect combo.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.