Major Tasman Sea depression & E airflow 15-20th June

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Now here's a post which is inaccurate and highly offensive. Please retract or risk loosing a moderator.

Dont worry Tony. You are a very well respected forecaster and member of this forum

We have Metservice, Weatherwatch, Blue skies and our own local knowledge to take informaton put out and make the best informed opinions of upcoming events that we can. We are lucky in Canterbury to have Tony based in Canterbury and Richard Green in Christchurch/Darfield and ofcourse Aaron Wilkinson.

I think this whole dibarcle around the creation of threads has said enough. People have raised points and taken them in. Lets leave this topic purely for the 'modelled event' and take what has been said into consideration in the future.

Latest model run currently shows nothing interesting at all.

[Tornado Tim]

Now here's a post which is inaccurate and highly offensive. Please retract or risk loosing a moderator.

Dont worry Tony. You are a very well respected forecaster and member of this forum

We have Metservice, Weatherwatch, Blue skies and our own local knowledge to take informaton put out and make the best informed opinions of upcoming events that we can. We are lucky in Canterbury to have Tony based in Canterbury and Richard Green in Christchurch/Darfield and ofcourse Aaron Wilkinson.

I think this whole dibarcle around the creation of threads has said enough. People have raised points and taken them in. Lets leave this topic purely for the 'modelled event' and take what has been said into consideration in the future.

Latest model run currently shows nothing interesting at all.

Completely agree.

The discussion has gone off topic. From now on the thread will remain on topic, all illrevant posts from now on will be deleted.
If people wish to discuss about the premature thread issue then please make up another thread.

[Talbotm]

So now we are back on topic what are the chances at this stage of seeing snow settling on the ground in the likes of Sheffield 300msl mid canterbury??

[Bradley]

Weather watch has snow down to 400m in Canterbury on Saturday night Talbot and the coldest air doesn't arrive until Sunday morning/afternoon so a good chance I'd say if the models stay strong over the next 3-4 days No snow for the test match though, I have to say I'm happy or I wouldn't be able to get home afterwards!!

[NZstorm]

Weather watch has snow down to 400m in Canterbury on Saturday night Talbot and the coldest air doesn't arrive until Sunday morning/afternoon so a good chance I'd say if the models stay strong over the next 3-4 days No snow for the test match though, I have to say I'm happy or I wouldn't be able to get home afterwards!!

Yes, the snow will occur where there is an overlap between the frontal band and the cold air on Saturday. Have to see how the models shape up on this but overall this system doesn't look very impressive. It does look like bringing very nippy conditions for an extended period.

[Storm Struck]

The models really are all over the place but that's what you get with slow moving developing low systems, we wont really know until Thursday to be sure as its back to a Sunday event again .
By the way if it did snow on Saturday I would tend to think the rugby would be postponed, not so much considering the actual game but the people able to get to the game on the roads etc.
Plus the stadium is very exposed so I am sure not many people would want to sit in the freezing snow to watch a game.

[NZstorm]

It could be a good rule for these extended range forecast threads, for people to state the model source so we are all on the same page with comments.
GFS, Euro, ukmet....is all that is required with the time of the run too I guess.

[TonyT]

ECMWF has it as more of an easterly rain event Sunday to Tuesday with its latest (Monday 0Z) run

[mikestormchaser]

Weather watch has snow down to 400m in Canterbury on Saturday night Talbot and the coldest air doesn't arrive until Sunday morning/afternoon so a good chance I'd say if the models stay strong over the next 3-4 days No snow for the test match though, I have to say I'm happy or I wouldn't be able to get home afterwards!!

Yes, the snow will occur where there is an overlap between the frontal band and the cold air on Saturday. Have to see how the models shape up on this but overall this system doesn't look very impressive. It does look like bringing very nippy conditions for an extended period.

i agree nzstorm, iv just checked looking at metuvw charts, i know thats only one model but it doent look fantastic, having said that things flip flop.
We'll see in teh next day or two periods of rain with a SSE wind flow by the looks on sunday.. thats for Christchurch anyways

[Razor]

Looks like a north island and nelson

[spwill]

The ECMWF spreads rain right across NZ Sat into Sun, mostly dry in the east Sat. I think there is the chance of some prolonged rain along the SI east coast early next week on a onshore flow, high country snow.

[spwill]

I think ridging onto southern NZ from Sunday will keep any heavy rain risk for the eastern SI north of Oamaru.

[melja]

Looks very wet for here but far to warm for any snow below about 800-900 m
Edit: just looking at models now and they show freezing levels well above 2000 m so only snow for the very high ski areas at this stage, could be a bad rain event in chch with there knacked stormwater systems tho and something to watch.

[Avalanche]

I think the heading for this thread needs to be changed lol, Large Tasman Low maybe?

[Bradley]

Between 50-100mm forecast for the Christchurch region between Sunday/Tuesday morning, would cause some major problems as mentioned if it does come off!!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I think the heading for this thread needs to be changed lol, Large Tasman Low maybe?

No it should be closed down because of the discussion about possible weather events a long way out.
I''ll create a new thread. Nev and other Mods can tidy up.

[Razor]

Between 50-100mm forecast for the Christchurch region between Sunday/Tuesday morning, would cause some major problems as mentioned if it does come off!!

Bang on, a bit light even!

[Bradley]

Between 50-100mm forecast for the Christchurch region between Sunday/Tuesday morning, would cause some major problems as mentioned if it does come off!!

Bang on, a bit light even!

Haha thanks Razor, even without a flashy meteorological degree I managed to get it right, who would've thought

[Bradley]

And if I go by the same model then where I live around 300m asl should receive between 30-40cm of snow by the time the cold snap finishes. Lets see if I can go 2 in a row!!