Weather for Pukekohe Racing, 29th Nov - 1st Dec

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C-Nimbus
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Weather for Pukekohe Racing, 29th Nov - 1st Dec

Unread post by C-Nimbus »

Hi all, :wave:
Its been a very long time since I have posted on here, so I trust all is well with you all.

I have a favour to ask. I am heading to Pukekohe race track for a weekend of motorsport and really need to get a firm forecast for the 3 days (this Friday, Saturday and Sunday).

I have done as much research as I can, and have come up with the following:

Friday, showers clearing in the morning and settling in to a westerly flow, which turns more NW as the day progresses This is presumably ahead of a cold front)

Saturday, NW'er for the racing day, chance of rain happening mid afternoon from a cold front. Not overly heavy, but possibly enough to leave standing water on the track. In particular the new chicane at turn 5, and also the 'Pukekohe River' which flows across the track on the home straight - quite dangerous that bit!)

Sunday, (main racing day) SW'er flow, with some remnants of the front still lingering in the morning. Should be clear by midday and just leave a SW flow over that part of the country.

Does this sound about right to you guys? if not what are you predictions, in particular, rain.

Thank you in advance for any help/guidance you can give me.

Cheers

Stu :-)
spwill
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Re: Weather for Pukekohe Racing, 29th Nov - 1st Dec

Unread post by spwill »

Hi C-Nimbus, they picked a good weekend for racing, no major weather system to spoil, looks like some showers later Sat.
C-Nimbus
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Re: Weather for Pukekohe Racing, 29th Nov - 1st Dec

Unread post by C-Nimbus »

Thanks spwill, and I hope your art and photography is still going well :)

Seems like your prediction is along the lines of what I have come up. I am a bit rusty to be honest, hence the post.

Cheers :)
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Weather for Pukekohe Racing, 29th Nov - 1st Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks like an accurate assesment to me :)
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Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
C-Nimbus
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Re: Weather for Pukekohe Racing, 29th Nov - 1st Dec

Unread post by C-Nimbus »

Thanks guys, this is what I have issued to some of the racing teams that I deal with....I hope I get it right, otherwise I may look like a complete lemon!

Friday the 29th

RAIN: Light in the morning, will clear completely by about 11am - 12pm
WIND: Westerly to Nor'Westerly, 5-10 knots (10 - 20 kph). Wind tends more to the NW late afternoon with same wind speed as above.
TEMPERATURE: Max of 20 DegC, minimum of 13 DegC (early morning and late at night)
CLOUD COVER: Should have scattered clouds for pretty much the whole day

Saturday the 1st (official first day of summer)

RAIN: None in the morning, but there will be a weak cold front coming through late afternoon (I am thinking after 4 or 5pm, or even later). Rainfall rates should be light, and by that I mean around 1-2mm per 6 hours. Metservice are saying no rain until the evening, but the models I use suggest it hitting late afternoon to evening. Difficult to tie down a time for this, but all going well most of the qualifying and racing scheduled for Saturday should be over or nearly over when this comes through. I am still banking on a low to mid level inversion (about 2km up) to kill off the front. If this happens, the worst we can expect is some boring drizzle, or just cloud cover. Front lingers over the area into the night, with 1-2mm 6 hourly rainfall rates predicted.
WIND: NW in the morning, 10-15 knots (20 or so kph). Gradual change to a SW flow as the front passes. Afternoon wind eases back to 5-10 knots
TEMPERATURE: Max of 22Degc, minimum of 16DegC (as per above criteria).
CLOUD COVER: Scattered cloud for most of the day. No doubt the sun will pop out from time to time

Sunday the 2nd (the big day!)

RAIN: Possibility of yesterdays stalled front to linger overnight, but only producing 1-2mm over 6 hours. I don't think any rain on Saturday night should be too much of a worry unless the drains are REALLY blocked!!.Any rain will be gone by 10-11am, then its as dry as an Arab sand-shoe after that. Please note you can never rule out a 'rogue' shower coming through from time to time in a SW'er flow. But if these do eventuate they will be short lived and pack very little punch. This is what the inversion will be doing to the front. Front will be gone completely by midday.
WIND: Light winds from the SW, max of 10 knots but more likely 5 knots
TEMPERATURE: Cooler on the Sunday due to the SW'er. Max of about 18DegC, minimum of 15DegC (as per above criteria)
CLOUD COVER: Scattered clouds coming from the SW.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast will be 100% correct, 60% of the time
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