El Nino

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wembley
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El Nino

Unread post by wembley »

Apparently there is a slightly lower likelihood of an El Nino developing this year but that still doesn't mean it won't happen at all
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Michael
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by Michael »

Good,hate el nino.A A North/NE flow summer best
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looks like a weal El Niño, which facts me off as I'm getting pist off with La Nina influenced weather all the time at the moment.
Hopefully, this weak El Niño will give us a few good thunderstorms this Spring?
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Richard
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by Richard »

I was reading somewhere that there's a chance that in fact a strong La Nina could now develop this summer
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Richard wrote:I was reading somewhere that there's a chance that in fact a strong La Nina could now develop this summer
I hope not o_O
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Michael
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by Michael »

Seems pretty el nino looking now and long range,maybe due to cold anticyclones parking over oz then weakening in the warmer now sea?
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by NZstorm »

Latest update from NCEP today is the chance of El Nino occurring has dropped to 65%.

Still seems probable we will have an El Nino this summer. Just have to hope it is a weak event.
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by Nev »

BoM not quite as optimistic. They dropped the chance of El Nino developing in 2014 to 50% last week.
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

both Nev and I had our doubts ....
a weak solar cycle I dont think has helped
and also the warmer than normal ocean temperatures this side of the pacific has not helped either
(i.e the eastern pacific needs to warm up that much more to make a difference )
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by Michael »

Hawaii has hurricanes,last was 1992 another elnino year 92/93.
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I see the atmosphere is trending more and more towards el nino now
(even though here in the NZ region it has been more like la nina lately...but that pattern looks to change from this weekend)
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by spwill »

See how this looks in 3 or 4 weeks time, general westerly is normal.

Niwa outlook http://www.niwa.co.nz/seasonal-climate- ... ember-2014
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Re: El Nino

Unread post by spwill »

Latest from BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

I reckon a dry late Spring/Summer for north and east of NZ
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