Possible Low Level Snow - June 15-17

[SnwAddct]

Thought I would get us started as this is likely to become an event having been in the models for couple days now. Feel free to correct me if Im wrong but from what I can see cold air comes in on Monday bringing the snow level for most of the south down to at least 400m.

Ive also just noticed that METUV maps show a low forming on Tuesday which could feed a decent amount of moisture into the cold air for the likes of Canterbury and also Central North Island.

[tidd66]

Well we already had a light snowfall in Gore this morning, Still lying about 200m on the hills. Wasn't forecasted this low.

[Bradley]

In addition to perhaps some snow down to very low levels it is interesting also that Metservice has mentioned possibility of “severe frosts” on Wednesday and Thursday for inland areas in their Severe Weather Outlook page. Much like May 29th where Christchurch broke it’s coldest May minimum this setup seems almost identical for some extremely cold, perhaps even record breaking minimums. Actually the airmass that will be left behind will be around 1-2C colder then late May’s but the high pressure system isn’t forecast to be quite as strong as last time. Tim will tell I guess!

[Razor]

Too soon to get too excited...but something to watch

[Bradley]

This is turning out to be a 2 pronged system with seperate cold fronts due on Sunday night then another burst on Monday night/Tuesday morning with the Tuesday burst a touch colder then the Sunday night one. On a side note the models are going for an epic cold front next Sunday with figures showing similar to the August 2011 event. I've never actually seen Tony from Blueskies put something in his outlook this far out but here is his latest forecast from this morning - "Cloudy next Saturday with variable winds, then periods of rain and snow with cold southerlies possible next Sunday".

[Storm Struck]

Canterbury looks more in the firing line for late Monday into Tuesday with potential for the snow to be falling at sea level, more favourable SSW flow then as apposed to the SW fronts on Sunday which will only get the far south.
But good to see some exciting weather ahead , i also noticed that alot of the deciduous trees are still green around here now thats a first and i mean the popular and silverberch etc.
The warm weather consistently up until late may has confused alot of plants i think.

[Razor]

Canterbury looks more in the firing line for late Monday into Tuesday with potential for the snow to be falling at sea level, more favourable SSW flow then as apposed to the SW fronts on Sunday which will only get the far south.
But good to see some exciting weather ahead , i also noticed that alot of the deciduous trees are still green around here now thats a first and i mean the popular and silverberch etc.
The warm weather consistently up until late may has confused alot of plants i think.

Yes those popular trees, such show-offs

[Storm Struck]

Very popular indeed Razor, although not so when they drop leaves in people's spouting .
Model runs picking a tad colder again for next week, THK running in at 518 Monday into Tuesday -7c on the 850, and another short sharp blast on the Thursday with low level snow as well.

[Dean.]

As usual GFS now coming inline with EC

[Dean.]

Mt Hutt will stay thin on the ground for a while yet!!

[melja]

Mt Hutt opening looks grim, only 3 runs open and only man mad snow on them.
Not sure people will be keen on paying full price to ski just yet but i hope it turns into a good season for them as they and the area around them need it.

[Dean.]

Very much like last year,fronts going around us,gale northwest stripping snow.

[Bradley]

ECMWF which has been very conservative of late is really liking the idea of a very strong cold front coming through next weekend, I haven't seen 850hpa temps like this forecast from ECMWF very often at all!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'd say it will be a dry cold for Canterbury with some frost reading, reaching minus 5.

[Bradley]

Windguru has lost the plot saying the snow line will be down to sea-level from next Sunday night to Tuesday morning - something must be throwing its data out big-time

[melja]

But will there be any weather with that cold Bradley? it wont snow without clouds or moisture so im with John, looks cold but dry.
The river of West-Northwest systems keeps on coming for the coming week, cant say i've seen it so prolonged in mid June. Been very cold on the west coast so my folks keep telling me.
Edit: M/S says snowy on Monday the 22nd for ChCh but it will change

[Dean.]

Only a matter of time before a low combines with a cold front here in Canterbury,seems to be a lot of action on the charts lately