Only 2 days ago, most forecasters were predicting that Tropical Cyclone Victor would slide well to the east of New Zealand, delivering us some larger swells on the eastern seaboard and that is about it. Although, in the last day or so, many forecasting maps have been predicting that Victor will slide more towards New Zealand. With an ETA of sometime during Wednesday.
It would have well weakened by then however and will be an Ex TC. However strong winds and rain are still looking very possible for the NE of the North Island, and possible much of the east coast as well. And depending on how well Victor stays together, possible some of the South Islands East coast as well. It now deserves its own topic in this thread as it moves south out of the pacific islands and towards NZ. Something to keep a close eye on!
How will Victor affect New Zealand?
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- snowchaser01
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How will Victor affect New Zealand?
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Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?
These are the GFS ensemble tracks for remains of VICTOR :
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
with GFS 1 feb scenario: From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
but ECMWF (more reliable) has this sceanrio for 1 feb (with a new low coming in from the Tasman sea) From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
From with GFS 1 feb scenario: From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
but ECMWF (more reliable) has this sceanrio for 1 feb (with a new low coming in from the Tasman sea) From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
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- NZstorm
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Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?
I am not a fan of the ex tropical cyclones, they generally just bring mucky weather. But there is a chance this one could trigger some strong thunderstorms over the North Island Wednesday due to moisture advection.
Also looking like some possible wind gusts of 85km/h for exposed eastern parts of the North Island.
Welcome back to the forum Bob.
Also looking like some possible wind gusts of 85km/h for exposed eastern parts of the North Island.
Welcome back to the forum Bob.
- snowchaser01
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Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?
I see MetService have mentioned a low confidence in their latest Severe Weather Outlook of Ex TC Victor producing some heavy rain for the eastern NI on Wed and Thurs.
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How will Victor affect New Zealand?
Wednesday is looking rather interesting. Have been watching this day for a few days now.
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Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?
Latest MS severe weather outlook extends the low risk of heavy rain all the way down to the Kaikoura Coast. As well as severe S-SE gales.
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- NZstorm
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Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?
Gisborne region may get a 6 to 9hour period of intense rain. Enough to cause local flash flooding.
If sufficient surface moisture convergence develops over inland North Island Wednesday a few localised downpours/thunderstorms will develop.
If sufficient surface moisture convergence develops over inland North Island Wednesday a few localised downpours/thunderstorms will develop.
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Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?
Loving the 12z GFS for the next week. Hectors moisture sticks around and sets us up for afternoon showers/storms for most of the week if the 12z holds true.
- NZstorm
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Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?
Still looking like the potential for a brief period of very heavy rain/Isolated thunder Thursday morning between East Cape and Gisborne as Victor remnants moves through. I'm sure the area will need the rain.