General February Weather

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 03/03/2016 18:26

Nev wrote:Here's NIWA's preliminary, 'February National Climate Summary'.

Second warmest February on record for New Zealand.

The national average temp of 19.5C was 2.2C above normal.

The month's highest temp of 35.5C was recorded at Clyde on the 3rd and the lowest of 1.9C was again recorded at Manapouri on the 10th.

Almost every climate station around the country recorded well above normal temperatures for the month. Overall, 28 locations recorded their hottest February mean-temps on record and a further 59 locations experienced near-record February mean temperatures.

Also of note is that Tauranga had its cloudiest February on record, with records extending back to 1933, and Auckland's Whangaparaoa recorded 206mm of rain, from records going back to 1946.

Whangaparaoa had the short duration heavy rainfall event on the 18th, convergence line along eastern parts of Auckland. 140mm for the full event at Whangaparaoa while Auckland Airport got 13mm

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 03/03/2016 18:30

I think the Tauranga sun data is highly suspect, and has been so for some while now - simply by looking at relativities with a variety of northern locations. Most likely a non-climatological factor like a new obstruction is the cause - this has happened plenty of times in the past.

That Te Ore Ore (Masterton) average Tmax (29.3C) if valid would be the highest ever for any month for a NZ location - nothing more than 28.7C has been managed before, I'm pretty sure. I think the site should be checked out.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 03/03/2016 19:49

RWood wrote:
That Te Ore Ore (Masterton) average Tmax (29.3C) if valid would be the highest ever for any month for a NZ location - nothing more than 28.7C has been managed before, I'm pretty sure. I think the site should be checked out.

I agree the 29.3C average max for a NZ location with proper exposure is hard to believe. I looked at a private weather station in Masterton and it recorded mean max 27.8C. The PWS tend to be warm sites as well.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 03/03/2016 20:59

Interesting. I see whatawhata did very well. Broke many records there yet Hamilton and ruakura didn't do as well (getting lots of a 2nd and 3rd highests). I'm probably equal distance to whatawhata as I am to the airport, so it doesn't surprise me all that much with how hot whatawhata was.

Yea a note about just how high dew points were would have been good. The y do allude to it tho stating hot temps AND humidity but it would be good to see some numbers even tho it's something they don't usually report on.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 03/03/2016 22:03

Some high mean mins in the north as well due to humidity. Northshore was 19.2C.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 04/03/2016 10:44

I see it was also the worlds hottest February on record, and El Nino ocean stored heat is being released now into the atmosphere where satellite observations have picked up that heat (like they did in 1998) which has put an end to the so called 18 year hiatus on satellite measurements of the atmosphere temperature trend
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status ... wsrc%5Etfw

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 04/03/2016 20:42

Manukau heads obs wrote:I see it was also the worlds hottest February on record, and

...one of the most boring weather Februarys on record.

Can't wait for the La Nina to return to make weather more interesting again.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 04/03/2016 21:14

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Can't wait for the La Nina to return to make weather more interesting again.

Hang on, didnt you say that about El Nino around 2 years ago

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 04/03/2016 21:26

Although it's been quite boring, it's better than the last few years with boring and no rain. Boring with rain which is what we have had this year is much better.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 04/03/2016 21:53

Tornado Tim wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Can't wait for the La Nina to return to make weather more interesting again.
Hang on, didnt you say that about El Nino around 2 years ago

Probably did then, Tim

It shows you, that you can't judge weather patterns/systems for significant weather events to happen.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 05/03/2016 10:03

spwill wrote:Whangaparaoa had the short duration heavy rainfall event on the 18th, convergence line along eastern parts of Auckland. 140mm for the full event at Whangaparaoa while Auckland Airport got 13mm

Actually Whangaparaoa only received 104mm from that stalled front in about 12 hours beginning on the evening of the 18th (6mm at Akld Aero). Showers earlier in the morning were part of an earlier front. Total for both fronts was about 144mm for Whangaparaoa and about 32mm at Akld Aero.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 15/03/2016 23:29

Global February NASA GISS data out: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

February smashes global temperature record, says Nasa

By David Lawler, Washington
8:00PM GMT 13 Mar 2016

February set global temperature records, Nasa announced on Saturday, deviating from historical norms by a wider margin than any month ever recorded, and raising further concerns about global warming.

It was the third consecutive month to break the record, which is calculated by setting the temperature for a particular month against the average temperature from that month between 1951-1980.

February was 2.43F (1.35C) above the norm, easily surpassing the 2.3F (1.14C) margin from January of this year, which also set a record.

The margin was considerably wider in the Northern hemisphere (2.76C) and the Arctic (5.36C).

Scientists say the unprecedented temperatures were due to man-made climate change and an unusually strong El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean.

Prior to this year, the warmest February on record came in 1998, another year with a strong El Niño.

Monthly global temperature findings date back to 1880, but never before have three consecutive months so far outpaced historical averages.

Story continues: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/e ... -Nasa.html

NOAA report due Thursday, but little differentiation expected.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 16/03/2016 07:52

The underlying warming trend is hard to ignore now
Sure there was period of little warming trend.until a couple of years ago...but that was due to a series of La Ninas and a pronounced solar minimum that occured (much less than normal sun spot activity)
the global temperatures should have actually decreased over that 15 year period..but the fact they did not is because of the background warming trend from steadily increasing CO2
now that El Nino is back, and big, and sunspot activity back recently (no coincidence)
then there is a bit of catching up to do re global temperatures

the people who think its just a natural cycle where the temperatures will fall back down again...well.I sure hope you are willing to eat your hat...time will tell...but if in another 10 years (and after another La Nina) that has not happened...what are you going to say then?

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 16/03/2016 11:56

Manukau heads obs wrote:The underlying warming trend is hard to ignore now
Sure there was period of little warming trend.until a couple of years ago...but that was due to a series of La Ninas and a pronounced solar minimum that occured (much less than normal sun spot activity)
the global temperatures should have actually decreased over that 15 year period..but the fact they did not is because of the background warming trend from steadily increasing CO2
now that El Nino is back, and big, and sunspot activity back recently (no coincidence)
then there is a bit of catching up to do re global temperatures

the people who think its just a natural cycle where the temperatures will fall back down again...well.I sure hope you are willing to eat your hat...time will tell...but if in another 10 years (and after another La Nina) that has not happened...what are you going to say then?

I'm sure Squawk ZB will find some senile fool to declare that the measurements are invalid...

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Wed 30/03/2016 15:42

At this point, that kind of thing is just wilful ignorance.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 30/03/2016 18:46

NZstorm wrote:
RWood wrote:
That Te Ore Ore (Masterton) average Tmax (29.3C) if valid would be the highest ever for any month for a NZ location - nothing more than 28.7C has been managed before, I'm pretty sure. I think the site should be checked out.

I agree the 29.3C average max for a NZ location with proper exposure is hard to believe. I looked at a private weather station in Masterton and it recorded mean max 27.8C. The PWS tend to be warm sites as well.

In the detailed NIWA stats. for February, the highest average Tmax for other stations was 28.3C at Pukaki, which looks realistic (and is a little short of a NZ record).

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 31/03/2016 12:56

Certainly a hot Feb in Auckland because of the high dewpoint and the high minimums.
Henderson 17C-27.3C

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