I think that Thursday's thunderstorm outlook should have its own separate thread even though it has connection to this system - http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... f=2&t=5638, if any storms that do develope its not a result of any explosive cyclogenesis
From the Met service
Valid to: Midnight Thursday 19 Jan 2017
Issued at: 10:15am Wednesday 18 Jan 2017
An unstable south to southwest flow spreads onto central New Zealand on Thursday afternoon and evening, with an associated southerly wind change spreading north through northern Canterbury and Kaikoura to reach Wellington and Wairarapa in the evening.
In the west, there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms about northern Westland and Buller through the afternoon and evening, and a low risk extending up into western Nelson and Taranaki from evening.
In the east, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about northern Canterbury and Kaikoura in the afternoon and early evening as the southerly wind change spreads north, and a low risk through through the remainder of Canterbury in the afternoon and evening, and about Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa and Kapiti in the evening or at night.
Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and mainly small hail.
No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this time.
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Last edited by Richard on Thu 19/01/2017 08:57, edited 1 time in total.
Will have to wait to see what happens.
This system will be quite fast moving so not expecting much thunderstorm activity as what I originally anticipated from this event but then judging from January the 6th event, you may see a flash or 2 ....
.....or hear a rumble
This morning outlook has the top of the NI now added as moderate along with Wellington,Taranaki and the southern Wairarapa
Valid to: Midnight Thursday 19 Jan 2017
Issued at: 8:44am Thursday 19 Jan 2017
A frontal rainband will move across the northern North Island late this morning and afternoon. There is a moderate risk of a few embedded thunderstorms about Northland late morning, and about Auckland and the Hauraki Gulf through to mid afternoon.
Further south, and unstable south to southwest flow is spreading over central and southern New Zealand.
There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about northern Westland, Buller and Kahurangi National Park through the whole day, and a moderate risk about Taranaki this evening and tonight. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail.
In the east, a southerly wind change will move northwards through Canterbury and Kaikoura this afternoon, reaching Wellington and Wairarapa this evening. This wind change is expected to produce a few thunderstorms, and there is a moderate risk about northern Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast this afternoon and early evening, and about Wellington and southern Wairarapa for a time this evening or tonight. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and hail of 5-15mm diameter.
A broader surrounding low risk covers remaining parts of the lower North Island,and central and northern South Island as indicated on the chart.
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Well, thats gota be the shortest thunderstorm thread, never even looked like anything was going to develop, getting some more rain which is great, 17mm today.
....