Possible Qld sunshine coast deluge Oct 16 to 18

[Cyclone Tracy]

I've been closely looking at the models over the past few days on this little event. All models think a stock standard 100mm event but GFS has produced the mother of all convergence zones, attacking the coast between Brisbane and Bundaberg. Rainfall totals of 600 to 900mm in 36 hours. It's hard to believe and other models think around 100mm but GFS keeps producing a water bomb.....time will tell.

[spwill]

A wet weather pattern for SE Queensland of late, early stage La Nina affects ?

[Cyclone Tracy]

A wet weather pattern for SE Queensland of late, early stage La Nina affects ?

Very good question, there certainly are signs of a La Niña. I just checked the 850 hPa zonal winds in the central pacific and GFS has a monster surge of easterlies around Oct 20th.... this could tip it over the threshold. Queenslands rain surge could be the canary in the mine at the moment.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes. Over there it is a feast or a famine as far as rain goes.
It's global cooling for you?

[Cyclone Tracy]

@John, tricky question. I think I'll leave the global cooling and warming question up to the climatologists

Solid falls around 100mm overnight between Bundaberg and the Sunshine coast but GFS was proven wrong again by EC and Access R with it's 600 to 900mm water bomb not happening. North of Bundaberg though, isolated spots are getting big numbers now. Turkey beach had 312mm overnight and the convergence zone is currently intensifying.

[petem8nz]

Wow

bundy.png

[Cyclone Tracy]

Just north of Bundaberg has now had around 700mm in the last 48 hours. Atmospheric river is running hard into the convergence zone. Some angry multi cell clusters surging into nth Queensland between Townsville and Cairns, dropping 100 mm per hour water bombs.