Deep Subtropical low 4th/5th January

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 05/01/2018 18:27

Persistant rain here. 32.7mm to 6pm.
I see no TVNZ news tonight because of flooding.

Thunder081 · Unread post by **Thunder081** » Fri 05/01/2018 19:11

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Fri 05/01/2018 17:49 As a matter of interest, does anyone know what the record lowest barometric reading on the north island is ?

Yes as David said it might of been on the 26th July 2008.
Here's the weather map for that storm

july-08.PNG

I made a video on that storm along time ago you can watch it to see the satellite images and isobar maps of it: https://youtu.be/5B9UPc4IsJs

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 05/01/2018 19:55

Thanks David and Thunder081.... 963 hPa in July 2008 would be hard to beat.

Just clocked up 60mm for the event. Air temp is now around 19c here with a gusty westerly coming off the 22c to 23c Tasman soup. Perfect conditions for warm air advection precipitation tonight

Thunder081 · Unread post by **Thunder081** » Fri 05/01/2018 20:15

Winds at Mt Kaukau (Wellington) are at 106 km/h already and its probably gusting in the 110 - 130 km/h range.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 05/01/2018 22:48

Approaching 50mm here today, and the wind has certainly arrived. Fascinating day of weather

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 06/01/2018 08:16

David wrote: ↑Fri 05/01/2018 18:19
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Fri 05/01/2018 17:49 As a matter of interest, does anyone know what the record lowest barometric reading on the north island is ?
Not sure what the record is, but Cape Reinga recorded 963 hPa on 26 July 2008, must be close to the record if not the record...

Yeah, pretty sure that 962.9 hPa at Cape Reinga at 3pm on July 26, 2008 would be the North Island record (offshore it was estimated to be 959 hPa). Cape Reinga also recorded around 963 hPa from Ex-TC Ida on March 15, 1959.

Ex-TC Ida map - Mar 15, 1959.gif

Record for the South Island is 954 hPa at Taiaroa Head, Dunedin on Jan 16, 1939.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 06/01/2018 10:45

Thanks Nev - very interesting.

Cook strait a little rough overnight.

The big models picked up on this storm quite well a fair way out. EC was a stand out again which is why its the go to model for all the met agencies on medium range. Once it got close though, the high resolution local models were far more accurate. Access R continued to accurately project the low was further north than EC, GFS and UKMO.

Here is what EC was showing up on Christmas day for January 3rd, not a bad effort

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=5733#p171903

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 06/01/2018 12:20

The damage from last nights wind here was one apple tree, two sunflowers and one corn plant.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 06/01/2018 18:49

Went for a walk to Eastern Beach today. Quite a mess down there. The grass area between the road and sea has been further eroded away.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 06/01/2018 22:08

I expect a lot of Beaches will be a mess.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 07/01/2018 09:47

Richard wrote: ↑Fri 05/01/2018 15:43 What seen on the Tamaki Drive will happen more with climate change

Cyclone ITA in April 2014 was reported to be the worst instance of flooding seen on Tamiki drive. Maybe this event was on par. I agree it could be a bigger issue in the future.

Nathanaelcraven · Unread post by **Nathanaelcraven** » Sun 07/01/2018 14:01

Great rain for Canterbury 44 mm for the event for us and looks like more this week!

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Sun 07/01/2018 20:53

Lake Road, near Seabreeze Rd, Narrowneck flooded as well. I have been working on storm faults work , didn't have time to post earlier.
Was around 1100 hours on the 5th when the King tide hit.
We had a car v pole just uphill from there.
Stills taken from video.

2018-01-06_10-50-53.jpg

.

2018-01-06_10-55-33.jpg

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 07/01/2018 20:59

NZstorm wrote: ↑Sun 07/01/2018 09:47 Cyclone ITA in April 2014 was reported to be the worst instance of flooding seen on Tamaki drive. Maybe this event was on par. I agree it could be a bigger issue in the future.

This was a case of quite low barometric pressure and a King High Tide co-inciding. Quite frustrating reading many media reports where they blamed it on rainfall & tide. If you buy in to the full global warming/climate change theories, then yes, worse is indeed inevitable. I wouldn't be using this event as an example to justify it though.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 07/01/2018 22:02

The strong Northerly wind and sea swell would have played a small part in the flooding also on top of the low barometric pressure and a King High Tide. .

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 07/01/2018 22:23

spwill wrote: ↑Sun 07/01/2018 22:02 The strong Northerly wind and sea swell would have played a small part in the flooding also on top of the low barometric pressure and a King High Tide. .

Agreed. But there were areas in Tauranga that are low lying where I'm told it came up the stormwater drains, didn't breach in via the harbours edge. Media here assumed it was rainfall causing it. Whilst it was raining, the rainfall rates & total rainfall was nowhere near high enough to cause the flooding. Also, areas that flooded were low lying, not the traditional heavy rainfall flooded areas (like where I am).

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 08/01/2018 06:46

A similar period of low barometric pressure, King High Tide and wind direction in another 20 years is likely to see water levels higher again, wonder how long it takes before they add in sea level rising as part of the problem.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 08/01/2018 07:32

Cyclone Drena in 97 had a big sea swell right into Auckland harbour and beaches, add that to a very high tide like we had on Friday and it would be distructive.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 08/01/2018 13:17

spwill wrote: ↑Mon 08/01/2018 07:32 Cyclone Drena in 97 had a big sea swell right into Auckland harbour and beaches, add that to a very high tide like we had on Friday and it would be distructive.

I don't have exact numbers but I believe the sea level has risen roughly 10cm since 1997. I have googled for more specific data but can't find it.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 08/01/2018 18:05

Ive read its 22cm since the mid 1800's, having if risen 10cm in 20 year means its really taking off

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 08/01/2018 18:30

http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for ... -rise.aspx

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 09/01/2018 06:25

Interesting seeing where and when the levels rise and fall in a over all tend up, like that TV3news clip showing a computer image where the levels have gone up the highest and some have dropped, makes you think how undulating the water surface of earth is and not a dead flat - says flat earth denier

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