Thunderstorms - 26-27th Jan
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Tornado Tim
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Thunderstorms - 26-27th Jan
Good setup for tomorrow with east west convergence and favourable sfc moisture and temperatures.
Atmopshere unduly unstable throughout all of the Waikato into the BOP into Taupo.
Convective model parameters have remained consistent for the past 2 days which is assuring.
ML-CAPE Levels exceeding 1600j/kg, with TT 55 and solid convergence params.
SWEAT values are looking good also, some directional shear is evident through to 3 KM, though flow is relatively weak.
Karipiro is looking good Friday evening, Jamie you up for a possible chase?
Tim
Atmopshere unduly unstable throughout all of the Waikato into the BOP into Taupo.
Convective model parameters have remained consistent for the past 2 days which is assuring.
ML-CAPE Levels exceeding 1600j/kg, with TT 55 and solid convergence params.
SWEAT values are looking good also, some directional shear is evident through to 3 KM, though flow is relatively weak.
Karipiro is looking good Friday evening, Jamie you up for a possible chase?
Tim
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Yep I’m definitely up for the chase if it’s firing. Baby due on 1 feb and looks like it’s prob going to be early so I just have to be on call during chasing.
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Is this cloud representing a small cap? I can see steam rising from Huntly power station and it’s showing great signs of an unstable lower atmosphere until it reaches the cloud. This to me is a good sign to have a bit of a cap.
- NZstorm
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Re: High temperatures 23-28 January
Looks to be an enhanced risk of thunderstorms over Waitomo and southern Waikato later today. The airmass is capped but the cap is likely to erode enough by late afternoon. Downpours of 50mm in an hour if cap breaks, modelling says it will.
Set up looks weaker over the North Island tomorrow Saturday and heat storms more probable over lower half of NI.
Set up looks weaker over the North Island tomorrow Saturday and heat storms more probable over lower half of NI.
Last edited by NZstorm on Fri 26/01/2018 07:01, edited 1 time in total.
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Going by Whenuapai's sounding which was taken about 7-8 hours ago, there is a cap indeed.
We dont want too much cloud as that will hinder the dtsh, but yes a cap is good at holding off the convection that doesnt have much punch.
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
It is clear to the south with cu in the sky.
Check out MS update for today. Condensed area of severe storms right over Waikato with hail to 20mm.
Chase is on! Any of you Auckland folk going to take the drive south? I suppose you will be battling the other 1m people heading south for the long weekend though.
Who from Hamilton area is up for a chase? Tim and I obviously are.
Check out MS update for today. Condensed area of severe storms right over Waikato with hail to 20mm.
Chase is on! Any of you Auckland folk going to take the drive south? I suppose you will be battling the other 1m people heading south for the long weekend though.
Who from Hamilton area is up for a chase? Tim and I obviously are.
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Yup its ON for sure!
High SWEAT Index is a big factor in the severe assesment, lots of water and possible strong downdrafts.
High SWEAT Index is a big factor in the severe assesment, lots of water and possible strong downdrafts.
Metservice wrote:The combination of a very warm humid afternoon and light winds are expected to allow daytime cloud buildups to produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms about the central North Island and northern South Island this afternoon and evening.
The main risk of thunderstorms is about the Gisborne ranges from late morning,about inland areas from Waikato to northern Taihape, including Rotorua and Taupo,and also about inland parts of southern Marlborough, Nelson, Buller and northern Canterbury during the afternoon and evening. A low risk covers surrounding areas as indicated on the chart.
Some of these thunderstorms are expected to be severe producing localised downpours of 20-40mm/hr. Additionally, in the western North Island from Waikato to Taumarunui and northern Taihape where there is a high risk of severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening, the storms may also produce hail up to 15 or 20mm diameter and wind gusts to 80km/hr.
Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding. Driving conditions will also be hazardous in heavy rain and hail.
No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand today.
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
I am in Hamilton today for a function early to mid afternoon. Tomorrow not looking good now up this way so I will try get out today.
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Yes, but I have a little bit of uncertainty to my day, all going well I should be free by 4pm.
- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
I would chase today but I am going down to Timaru this afternoon for the weekend. Pity as it looks a good set up. You can't argue with 1800CAPE, should be some photogenic multicell storms. Cb tops to 40,000feet.
- Willoughby
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
MetService T-storm outlook looks good: Te Kuiti - Taumarunui - Taupo triangle looks very ripe.
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Thunderstorm Watch:
Interestingly they are reviewing at 2 PM...... looks like they leaving a little wiggle room alter the forecast in time.Issued by MetService at 08:49 am Friday 26 January 2018
Valid until 10:00 pm Friday 26 January 2018
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Waikato
Waitomo
Taumarunui
Taupo
Taihape
The combination of light winds and a very warm humid afternoon are expected to allow daytime cloud buildups to produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms about the central North Island this afternoon and evening.
Between about 3pm and 10pm today (Friday), some of these thunderstorms may be severe about Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, western Taupo and near Tongariro National Park with localised downpours of 20-40mm, hail possibly up to 15 or 20mm diameter, and wind gusts to 80km/hr.
Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.
Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain and hail.
Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and monitor for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Current highest temperature as per Metservice is 30.6 degrees in Taumaranui @2.57pm, which is in close proximity to a strong thunderstorm that has developed. Dew point about 22 degrees c
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Big smuttering of bolts over northern Tongariro NP at the moment with that cell:
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Guessing this is thunder (or wind) being picked up on the Tongariro seismogram
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Last edited by Rogue on Fri 26/01/2018 17:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Looks like 3 massive cells around Tongariro, Whakatane/White Island and Marlborough at the moment. The BOP 120km radar is very interesting right now, as is the Wellington one!
- Thunder081
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Is anyone out chasing the north island storms?
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
In Karipiro watching cells develop to my east, convection forming to just to east, will have to wait a bit longer for the Waikato convection to fire.....
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
The air is very hazy due to the 21 dew points so hard to get clear views
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Some lightning being picked up from that cell over the Mamakus now
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
Three separate STW's at one. I've never seen that before. Have fun chasing and stay safe(clear air lightning).
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Re: Thunderstorms - 26th Jan
I'm looking forward to some photos too BTW if you look at the Taupo webcam on MS you can see the CB's forming near tongariro
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q