Tropical Cyclone Marcus

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tropical cyclone Marcus is born. Darwin a good chance to be close to the centre by this time tomorrow.

Longer term conditions are ripe for a rapid intensification off the W.A coast. I think Marcus is going to become a gargantuan cat 5 if those projected conditions prevail. W.A coastline and mining regions will be watching this one closely.

@Willoughby, I assume it's a classical still beautiful pre-cyclone day in Darwin today with a bit of high cloud?

[Willoughby]

Yes nice day actually with the dewpoint on just 20C with the change in seasons occurring. All the public servants just went home.

Could impact Darwin worse than Laurence in Dec 2009 as it was a tropical low.

ACCESS-City for 3.30pm tomorrow:

accessC.PNG

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Marcus currently sitting over Van Dieman gulf waters which are simmering around 31c. Fairly solid structure and still a cat 1 even with the eye over land most of the night. Bathurst Island getting a nice North Westerly at the moment and a couple of ships trying to out run Marcus

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Marcus now a cat 2 and right on Darwin. Airport just had a gust of 122 km/h.

[spwill]

Plenty of wind for Darwin, not much rainfall showing up on the observations.

[NZstorm]

Darwin airport currently averaging 46 knots gusts 61 knots.

[Willoughby]

70 knots in the city and Darwin Harbour - sooo many trees are down - even natives! Lots of power outages about too.

Very powerful winds right around the whole city with the eye passing over.

Here's some good video my mate got:

[Willoughby]

Nine News video (click image):

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Thanks for the report, Will.
I wish people would not send in footage to the media with the blurry side features as that effects my eyesight.

[Willoughby]

Here's a video I stuck together, fallen large trees in the CBD and surrounds.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Some big trees down there Willoughby. Great vid, thanks for sharing.

Marcus now about to head out to the Indian Ocean to develop into a tropical monster in about 4 days.

[spwill]

Darwin losing quite a few trees.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Wasn't there a big cyclone that went through there many years ago and devestated the town

[Willoughby]

Wasn't there a big cyclone that went through there many years ago and devestated the town

Tracy? Sure was. She was a cat 4.

[Nev]

One of the sad things about Cat 4 TC Tracy is that it took most people by surprise by the time it barrelled directly over Darwin early on Christmas Day in 1974, killing 65 and wrecking about 70% of the state capital's homes. Darwin Aero recorded gusts to 217 km/h around 3:05am LT that morning, before its anemometer failed about 10 minutes later. Pressure got down to 950 hPa at 4am, with gusts estimated to be around 240 km/h. Tracy was also the world's most compact TC ever recorded, until the Gulf of Mexico's TS Marco beat that record in 2008.
(see Wikipedia)

Re TC Marcus, I think Saturday's 126 km/h gusts at Darwin Aero might be its 2nd-equal highest (along with Feb 2010 and Nov 2005) since records began there in 1947. Darwin Harbour also recorded gusts to 130 km/h on Saturday. Lowest pressures were 982.2 hPa and 982.1 hPa respectively.

Darwin Aero Mar 17 wind & pressure obs ℅ WZ.png

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Tracy was an amazing system. A midget severe TC with a pinhole eye and a direct hit on Darwin. There has been debate in the meteorological circles over the years of the exact structure of the storm. Some believe she contained multiple mesocyclones and there were a series of twisters within the eyewall. It certainly changed building codes across a few states.

TC Marcus is now a cat 3 and gaining. Ideal conditions ahead to go Cat 5. Savage wind shear as he rounds the ridge towards 25 degrees south will save Perth from a TC at this stage.

[Cyclone Tracy]

He's now a solid Cat 4 gusting to 250 km/h and really starting to crank. JTWC now having him gusting to 170 knots (315 km/h) by tomorrow night It's going to be interesting on how big he gets.


Great shot of Marcus's outer bands from Broome last night.
https://www.facebook.com/broomeadventur ... =3&theater

[Cyclone Tracy]

Severe TC Marcus now an annular tropical cyclone and a category 5 on the OZ scale.

BoM tech bulletin as of 1pm NZT

Speed of Movement: 15 knots [27 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 939 hPa

@ 1.40pm NZT, ADT method now has him intensifying to 931 hPa. Closing in now on becoming the strongest tropical storm on earth for 2018 so far.

[Cyclone Tracy]

8am NZT Marcus is now the strongest tropical storm on earth for 2018. Now approaching cat 5 U.S scale.

BoM Tech Bulletin

Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 170 knots [315 km/h]
Central Pressure: 921 hPa

[Cyclone Tracy]

Marcus is now in the big league. Cat 5 U.S scale. ADT has him at 912 hPa and falling. AMSU down to 893 hPa......

[Nev]

BoM now have him down to 916 hPa. Sure is a pretty handsome mature beast…

[Cyclone Tracy]

Eye temperature staying above 5c and pressure now down to 909 hPa on ADT. CG's still sparking within the inner eyewall.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Thank goodness , it's not over land or habited islands

[Willoughby]

https://theconversation.com/lessons-not ... rcus-93862

Probably the natural 'touch up' Darwin needed to weed out weak trees and rooting systems.