Hurricane Florence

[Cyclone Tracy]

Onslow Bay outer buoy just gusted to 97 kts…. she is ramping up!

[Cyclone Tracy]

Wave height on that Onslow bay outer buoy is currently at 24.3 feet, had peaks around 28 feet.

She is currently crawling on the radar, almost looks stationary.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Handy graphic link if you want to see Florence crawling into the coast http://wx.graphics/models/MRMS_radar_northcarolina.gif

[Thunder081]

Thanks Mr Tracy for the updates

[Cyclone Tracy]

Florence is barely moving….completing raking the NC coast and inland areas. It’s currently rated a category 1…. By the end of this event, there will be a much debate over the old Saffir-Simpson scale I would say. The new Cyclone Damage Potential Index will be front and centre in this debate as it assesses the damage potential of tropical cyclones, incorporating key damaging cyclone parameters which include translational forward speed.

Along with the obvious wind damage and storm surge, Northern areas of NC will get 1000mm + of rain. Based on her near stationary position and latest model projections, this is quite a large disaster unfolding for the U.S

[Cyclone Tracy]

Florence is still the same strength across her wind field and remains at 954 hPa. Eye still over water, inner core now approaching Wilminton NC.

Flooding whether from broken rivers banks, flash flooding or storm surge is becoming catastrophic

[Cyclone Tracy]

Watching Florence starting to S wobble next to the coast...… she wont decay if a portion remains over water.... I'm watching her like a hawk

[Cyclone Tracy]

Been keeping a close eye on the eye. Official land crossing at 11.15pm NZT, 958 hPa, winds 150 km/h. Eye has closed slightly and is moving SW next to the coast. Potential to move back over waters in the next 6 hours on its current track.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Florence has remained just over land during the day U.S time, crawling WSW down NC heading towards the SC border. U.S Hurricanes on the east coast do not normally move in this direction ....the atmospheric steering set up for Florence is quite unique. Currently still a cat 1, 968 hPa, winds 65 knots moving at 8 km/h

[Cyclone Tracy]

Florence’s last 48 hours as a Hurricane on microwave imagery. Normal NW steering behaviour before a 3 way block closing the northern exit door and making her crawl and head SW on a NC land crossing. Now a tropical storm, the tales of this meandering tropical beast will only get worse for residents of the Carolina’s as the next 24 hour unfolds.

[Cyclone Tracy]

That wrap around SE cyclonic assault now has some county's in NC passing 500mm in the last 48 hours and it will remain ongoing as Florence crawls SW. Currently the circulation centre is now in South Carolina and very near the coast.

[Simon Culling]

Another good blog entry on Florence by Dr Jeff Masters - there are quite a few entries already on this storm if you go back to the index. Preliminary reports suggest at or near record storm surge levels despite the rapid fall in intensity before landfall.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Flore ... me-Records

[Cyclone Tracy]

Multiple wrapping convergence zones flowing into NC now bringing totals near 800mm in spots.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Deep convective banding continues, as this never ending wrap around squeeze zone keeps firing, kicking off impressive lightning on the gulf stream. There is only so much water one region can get before a major tipping point is reached.

I’m scratching my head on the EC 1509 EC run. As Florence exits to the north, Vortex shedding from Florence’s tail, also known as ‘Karman vortex street’ creates a rogue circulation and tries to regenerate a Tropical storm off the Carolina’s within a week. This needs to be watched closely

[Simon Culling]

Some preliminary rainfall totals to midday Saturday (local time). As the rain seems to have started around the middle of Thursday, these would appear to be roughly 48 hour totals. That's more than we get in a year at Swansboro, North Carolina!

https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1 ... 1250995200

The map below the main tweet gives the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall per state since 1950.

[Richard]

Big totals so far.

If only they weren't so backward and had it in metric though

[Cyclone Tracy]

Florence's depression has now moved North. 17 fatalities and the water in river systems is still rising

Some of the latest stats from NOAA for North Carolina - Top 10 gauges

...Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 200 PM
EDT Thu Sep 13 through 1000 AM EDT Mon Sep 17...

...NORTH CAROLINA...
ELIZABETHTOWN 35.93 (898mm)
SWANSBOR 33.89
GURGANUS 30.38
HOFMANN FOREST RAWS 29.62
HAMPSTEAD 29.52
SUNNY POINT RAWS 27.44
NATURE CONSERVANCY RAWS 27.40
OAK ISLAND 26.98
WILMINGTON 26.58
WHITEVILLE 25.91

[Cyclone Tracy]

Florence continues to have a sting in her tail. https://www.facebook.com/10000000693386 ... 880622456/