Tropical Cyclone Penny

[Nev]

Models have really been divided with the short-term outcome of these low centres.

JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert for Queensland's TD 95P, which is most likely to cross Cape York into the GoC and quickly intensify before crossing back again into the Coral Sea.

[Nev]

BoM expect the Far Nth Qld low to intensify as it crosses into the GoC tomorrow, reaching TC status by Tuesday.

[Nev]

JTWC have upgraded the GoC low to TC status (based on 1-minute winds) and expect her to keep on intensifing as she heads back east across Cape York…

[Nev]

TC Penny has just been named by the BoM...

[Nev]

BoM have just reinstated Penny's TC status.

TC Penny - BoM Track-map - Jan 02, 0713z.png

Penny crossed the west coast of Cape York Peninsula, between Weipa and Thud Point, as a Cat 1 TC at around 0530Z yesterday evening (Tuesday) and downgraded by the BoM to an Ex-TC about 4 hrs later (about 12 hours after being named), then reentered the Coral Sea very early this morning.

Nice little historical and forecast animation from the BoM…

[Nev]

TC Penny was upgraded to Cat 2 by the BoM at around 1300z this morning.

[Chris W]

On the BOM charts Penny looks set to stay almost completely stationary for the next week. It is a good job she appears is over the ocean! Though she may affect New Caledonia to some extent.

What other TCs have done this?

[Nev]

Don't think it's that unusual for a systems to become quasi-stationary for a few days as steering influences change.

Penny was downgraded to a Cat 1 by the BoM around 1300z this morning. Convection has weakened considerably since yesterday afternoon.

Gotta love this little quote from the BoM's tech bulletin..

Penny has slowed down and the steering pattern is "wishy-washy" due to the
competing influences of the ridge to the south and the general monsoonal flow to
the north. It is possible that Penny will be slow moving for several days.

[Nev]

Despite convection well sheared to the south and leaving Penny's LLCC well exposed, JTWC still expect her to maintain TC status over the weekend.

[Nev]

Penny was downgraded to an ex-TC by the BoM around 1300z this morning. Deep convection overnight sheared to the SW, but LLCC no longer exposed. JTWC maintaining TC status for the next day or two, with some intensification possible.