El Nino '19

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wembley
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El Nino '19

Unread post by wembley »

I read on several websites that El Nino was a strong possibility for this year.

Interesting to see if it is the case.
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Nev
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Re: El Nino '19

Unread post by Nev »

The US have been calling it a 'Weak El Nino' since about mid-Feb.

However, the BoM, who have slightly different thresholds, did raise the chance of El Nino developing in the coming months (albeit short-lived) from 50% to 70% about a month ago.

Note that long-range model outlooks made around this time of year, as temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean naturally weaken, tend to have a reduced level of accuracy.
BoM ENSO Wrap-Up - 16 April 2019

Short-lived El Niño remains likely


The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño developing in the coming months is approximately 70%; around triple the normal likelihood.

Although sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are still close to El Niño thresholds, the atmosphere is yet to show a consistent El Niño-like response. The Southern Oscillation Index, which typically drops when an El Niño pressure pattern develops across the equatorial Pacific, remains neutral and trade winds are currently close to normal strength near the equator.

While climate models forecast El Niño-like ocean temperatures during May, most models indicate a cooling through winter, with only three of eight models still forecasting El Niño-like warmth in spring. This indicates that if El Niño does develop it is likely to be short lived and weak.

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TonyT
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Re: El Nino '19

Unread post by TonyT »

Out of similar set ups this century at this time of year, one has progressed to Nino, three to Nina, and one to Nada. #-o
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