of the gfs/nogaps models do like to make extreme predictions
stiil, keep an eye on the developing system over queensland/north tasman
it might miss the boat though
We need some action weather or this place will die!
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Not here there have been sunny periods but Rain in between up here What happened to your southerlies in WN that used to frequent in the 60's and 70's
RWood wrote:Sunny dry month here so far, and. quite mild. SE storm for this w/end in earlier prognoses? - sounds like bollocks!Gary Roberts wrote:The springlike weather continues here in Omarama and the Mackenzie, with dense cloud and light rain, with cool-to-warm temperatures.
What are the prospects for action weather here in the next few days? Good, or fading?
I don't mind this "inaction" at all.
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Don't have objective data on hand about windflow directions but I suspect that by comparison with those times we're getting more SW quadrant winds and fewer SE quadrant winds. I do know that annual summary reports ("Meteorological Observations", Met. Misc. Pub. 109) stated that from 1974 to mid-1980 there was some degree of easterly anomaly over the NZ region. One of the ways this may have manifested itself could be the opposite to the above - more "SE" and less "SW". The "El Nino-favouring" decadal oscillation phase from about 1977-1998 I suspect would tend to reverse this. I think windspeeds here have dropped a little anyway - max. gust data (1972-present) support this. But one definitely feels that southerly events are less common and mostly less severe - the odd big storm gets a lot of publicity partly because people are much less used to them now!?Michael wrote:Not here there have been sunny periods but Rain in between up here What happened to your southerlies in WN that used to frequent in the 60's and 70's
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Yep, I recall the big southerly blows being a lot more common when I was kid. Of course that could be selective memory at work, but I don't think so.RWood wrote:Don't have objective data on hand about windflow directions but I suspect that by comparison with those times we're getting more SW quadrant winds and fewer SE quadrant winds. I do know that annual summary reports ("Meteorological Observations", Met. Misc. Pub. 109) stated that from 1974 to mid-1980 there was some degree of easterly anomaly over the NZ region. One of the ways this may have manifested itself could be the opposite to the above - more "SE" and less "SW". The "El Nino-favouring" decadal oscillation phase from about 1977-1998 I suspect would tend to reverse this. I think windspeeds here have dropped a little anyway - max. gust data (1972-present) support this. But one definitely feels that southerly events are less common and mostly less severe - the odd big storm gets a lot of publicity partly because people are much less used to them now!?Michael wrote:Not here there have been sunny periods but Rain in between up here What happened to your southerlies in WN that used to frequent in the 60's and 70's
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