Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10-12

Archive of NZ Weather and Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10-12

Unread post by tornado »

theres already been some discussion in the november thread. i thought i would make a thread. metservice has got most of the north island under a moderate risk for thunder from afternoon and a heavy rain watch for most of the north island as well. parts of bay of plenty under a heavy rain warning.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

That Tasman trough currently has a 1,500 km line of bolts.

Models currently projecting the jet streams will be interacting above the NI early tomorrow morning with the surface trough tilting negative as it moves across the NI. Later on tomorrow also has some nice cold uppers. Should be an interesting Sunday in parts of both Islands.
treetopkk
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat 18/11/2017 07:52
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by treetopkk »

band of active lightning in Tasman down to Fiordland now
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

-60c cloud tops popping up on that other stationary tilting trough in the Tasman near the NI around 5pm.
IR 0911 4.50pm.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by tornado »

i see that storms have started slightly closer to us. with the main band behind it. wonder if we will catch any thunder tonight or overnight?
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Sadly the line of thunderstorms are dwindling as it becoming darker.
NI might not get any but tomorrow looks promising for the SW of the South Island, before quickly dwindling away.
Back to clagg again looks likely here as a low develops east of Canterbury.
JohnGaul
NZThS
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by tornado »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sat 09/11/2019 20:47 Sadly the line of thunderstorms are dwindling as it becoming darker.
NI might not get any but tomorrow looks promising for the SW of the South Island, before quickly dwindling away.
Back to clagg again looks likely here as a low develops east of Canterbury.



theres still a chance with tommorows afternoon showers up here though. again. the risk from tommorow here is from afternoon. so lets see what happens. might be isolated. but still a chance. the band is meant to be coming through early morning then afternoon the risk for thunderstorms from the afternoon showers is moderate
Last edited by tornado on Fri 13/12/2019 21:18, edited 1 time in total.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

As per usual, I see there is a line of thunderstorms heading for Auckland? What else is new? :rolleyes:
JohnGaul
NZThS
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by tornado »

the line behind the newer line of storms is getting stronger again :)
Last edited by tornado on Fri 13/12/2019 21:18, edited 1 time in total.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

tornado wrote: Sat 09/11/2019 22:50 the line behind the newer line od storms is getting stronger again :)
Tornado possible around Taranaki? or Waikato 8-o
JohnGaul
NZThS
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by tornado »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sat 09/11/2019 22:52
tornado wrote: Sat 09/11/2019 22:50 the line behind the newer line od storms is getting stronger again :)
Tornado possible around Taranaki? or Waikato 8-o


maybe taranaki as always. new zealands "tornado alley" maybe waikato.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

tornado wrote: Sat 09/11/2019 23:12
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sat 09/11/2019 22:52

Tornado possible around Taranaki? or Waikato 8-o


maybe taranaki as always. new zealands "tornado alley" maybe waikato.
Could be.
Just like "Thunderstorm Corner" down here in Canterbury.
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Tornado: include top of south in the topic as its looking right in the firing line for thunderstorms and very heavy rain.
As indicated on MS latest outlook also.
Big band lines just starting to filter in from the north, being picked up well on the wellington radar also being so far offshore.
Next 36 hours will be interesting.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible Nth Island/Upper Sth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by tornado »

yes I see that the upper south island is also in the risk for getting rain/thunder. thanks alot. :>


our risk for thunder starts from afternoon through till tonight.
Last edited by tornado on Mon 25/11/2019 06:09, edited 1 time in total.
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by tornado »

heavy downpour here at the moment. looking foward for possible thunder this afternoon
Last edited by tornado on Sun 10/11/2019 10:36, edited 1 time in total.
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I see some strikes recorded northern Kaipara from a shower line that does not look like much on rain radar, so that is promising
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible Nth Island T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by tornado »

Awhituobs wrote: Sun 10/11/2019 07:25 I see some strikes recorded northern Kaipara from a shower line that does not look like much on rain radar, so that is promising

yes i see that too. hopefully some action this afternoon as the risk starts from 12pm. really good signs for thunder.


strikes in taranaki now too.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6216
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 468 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by Nev »

This morn's outlook for today... still just moderate risks...
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 10 Nov 2019
Issued at: 7:46am Sunday 10 Nov 2019

A front preceded by a moist unstable northerly flow with embedded troughs moves slowly east over the upper South Island today. The front is expected to move east onto the North Island this evening.

This morning there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from the west of Auckland south through coastal Waikato, Waitomo and Taranaki. There is also a moderate risk in Buller and the far north of Westland. This afternoon and evening there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over much of the North Island and northern South Island as shown on the chart. If these thunderstorms occur, they are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms about the remainder of the North Island and parts of the northern South Island as shown on the chart. During the afternoon, showers are likely to develop about inland Otago and South Canterbury, and there is a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon for the Mackenzie Country and northern Central Otago.

No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected over New Zealand during this period.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Nov 10.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by NZstorm »

Could be a good light show somewhere this evening as that upper level cooling comes across. Maybe Hauraki Gulf?
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by Razor »

Hoping Aucklands weather doesn't wreck the cricket this afternoon otherwise NZ and England will have to settle for another tie
Christchurch Rocks
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by RWood »

Apart from slightly better conditions on Monday and Thursday, a drab miserable week in Wellington.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Currently 20c, 18.5c dew point with the sun out here. Had a brief 5mm downpour on sunrise with a rate of 54mm/hr at one point.
tornado
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat 02/03/2019 21:58
Location: flat bush,botany,auckland
Has thanked: 81 times
Been thanked: 93 times

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10-11

Unread post by tornado »

if any thunderstorms come near auckland i hope it happens at night so that we can have a nice natural "fireworks display" in the sky. which would be good.
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10-11

Unread post by TonyT »

Thunder in Amberley now, with moderate rain.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Possible north & central NZ T-storms & heavy rain - Nov 10-11

Unread post by David »

Apart from 3mm around dawn, just 0.4mm here today... Sure hope we can get some decent rain later, garden sure needs it
Image
Locked