UK Weather - Autumn 2019

[Simon Culling]

It has been mostly dry for the last few days with some sharp frosts in more eastern and northern parts. The lowest temperatures of the season were recorded on the morning of Tuesday 19th November in Scotland - the lowest I can find were:

-9.9°C at Braemar
-9.6°C at Tyndrum
-9.1°C at Balmoral
-8.7°C at Aviemore + Dalwhinnie

Even in northern England lows of -7°C were reported. Here in the south it was not as cold, but we managed one decent frost here in Tiverton.

We have a more south easterly feed today with rain into more western parts, but it is still dry here in Tiverton - albeit a little chilly in the wind (8°C at lunchtime). The rains look to be returning from tomorrow and the mercury is set to rise into the mild category for a few days.

The CET for November was 6.3°C (-0.8°C) up to the 19th and the EWR was 95mm up to the 18th, which is 103% of the monthly average. The rainfall distribution for the month so far is very unusual with western Scotland being very dry. This Met Office summary of the weather up to 17th November is an interesting read:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/11/1 ... tatistics/

[Simon Culling]

The rain has returned with a vengeance in the last couple of days - particularly to more western and south western parts of the UK and the forecasts for the next five days give more of the same with the added complication of the remnants of Tropical Storm Sebastian by Tues/Weds. It is quite late in the year for tropical remnants to reach the UK - the forecast charts have it as a deep low (961mb) at 1200GMT on Tuesday (26th Nov) just off the SW tip of Eire before it slowly moves across the UK as a filling feature. At least it has turned quite a bit milder.

Friday/Saturday were a wet couple of days here in Tiverton with almost non-stop rain - local stations picked up between 20-30mm and the rivers are running quite full at the moment - with brown water reflecting the large run-off. We even had a coupe of bursts of hail mixed-in with the rain on Friday as convective elements developed . It is misty and dull this morning (Sunday), but at least it is dry for the moment - more rain will arrive this evening.

The EWR for November was 107mm up to the 22nd, which is 116% of the monthly average. It could reach 150% by the end of the month.

[Simon Culling]

The relentless rain (or showers!) has continued unabated for the last few days, but we do have a much drier and colder spell arriving now and hopefully this will last into early next week - although it will not be completely dry as a low will slide past the SW of the UK on Saturday giving rain to southern parts. A number of lowland stations have passed 150-200mm for the month in the SW of England and also in parts of the Midlands with more than double this amount on high ground - thankfully it has been arriving every day rather than in one hit, so additional flooding has been limited.

High pressure will develop from the northwest after the aforementioned low passes SE into Europe over the weekend and it will then topple over the UK taking roughly the same path as the preceding low. This should give us a few sunny days and frosty nights, but with all the moisture in the ground, fog could become a problem if the winds stay light and this has a tendency to linger all day at this time of year because of the low incoming radiation levels.

This short article from the BBC puts things into perspective - whilst some areas have been very wet (especially the east Midlands), overall it has been a wet autumn rather than a very wet and record breaking one for the UK as a whole. The final figures will make interesting reading.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50572041

[Richard]

I was talking with a lady yesterday who only just come back from seeing her family in Wales, she was saying just how wet it was

[Simon Culling]

Your friend was right, Richard, as it has certainly been a wet autumn - more so from the duration of the rainfall rather than the absolute amount.

The last few days of November were mostly dry, although some rain did get into the SW of England - luckily I was in Hampshire where it was dry albeit rather cloudy and cool. The high pressure has given cold and frosty weather to more northern parts and the mercury fell to -10°C at both Tyndrum + Tulloch Bridge in Scotland on Saturday morning, the last day of autumn. A number of sites in northern England also saw lows down to -7°C, but here in the south we mostly escaped a frost. Because incoming radiation is very low at this time of year, and especially in more northern parts, a few sites had an 'ice day' with Balmoral having a maximum of just -3.3°C on Saturday. This compares to a high of 11°C at a number of sites in the SW of England on the same day.

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for November was 6.2°C (-0.3°C) which makes it the second coldest month overall for 2019, and colder than both February and March.

The final EWR for November was 137mm which is 148% of the monthly average. Taking the autumn as a whole, the EWR was 411mm which is 160% of the autumnal average.

It will be interesting to see the distribution of the rainfall when the final figures for both November and autumn season are published.

[Simon Culling]

Some interesting figures in the November and autumn 2019 summary below from the Met Office. NW Scotland had all the dry and sunny weather and the rest of us got a soaking, with some county and regional records in parts of the east Midlands and northern England. The maps do not normally look like this!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... mber-stats