General January Weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Warm day here today especially out at Barkers where I was working.
Temperature maximized out @ 29C.
Some high cloud this evening, with it being 20C at 10pm.
Might be thunder related activity tomorrow with this weak front. Who will tell?

[TonyT]

Well this is a first for me. My Davis weather station soil moisture meter has max out. Assuming there is no moisture left in the sensor at 10-15cm soil depth. I think I’ve had that in for about 6 years. The first summer it was in we got to a reading of 190 (200 is maxed out). Last summer we got to about 160 I think but it was such a prolonged dry summer and autumn more being the issue. Today is a reading I’ve never recorded and with at least 10 more days before we get rain, shits getting serious now.

I went back and looked at monthly rain fall. Since September 2018 we have only had 2 months be above it’s monthly average. All the rest have been below average. That’s 17 (including this month) months with 15 of them being below average. Many of them well below the average. To me this drought has been building since September 2018.


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Third week of Feb is the one to hold out for.

[Chris Raine]

Got to 31.4C Friday Max for the year

[Nev]

Hottest airport locations today were Pukaki and Alexandra which got 33C although Alex may have reached 34C.

Yes, got up to 34.2C at Alexandra Aero yesterday, 33.8C at Pukaki Aero (a daily range of 26.8C from 7.0C earlier), around 33C at Roxburgh and 32.3C at Tara Hills, Omarama. NIWA's top temps tweetered yesterday were 34.5C at Clyde, 33.8C at Alexandra (town), 33.7C at Middlemarch and 33.2C at Ranfurly.

[Nev]

I went back and looked at monthly rain fall. Since September 2018 we have only had 2 months be above it’s monthly average. All the rest have been below average. That’s 17 (including this month) months with 15 of them being below average. Many of them well below the average. To me this drought has been building since September 2018.

Thought these rainfall figures might also be of interest:

Code: Select all

Rainfall (mm) and departures from 1981-2010 normals ℅ NIWA

Month       Hamilton Aero    Ruakura 

2018 Jun      141  112%     115   99%
2018 Jul      133  103%     116   99%
2018 Aug      132  110%     139  126%

2018 Sep       57   57%      53   58%
2018 Oct       78   79%      53   59%
2018 Nov       92  103%      79   85%

2018 Dec      179  170%     184  188%
2019 Jan       32   39%      23   29%
2019 Feb       18   24%      14   21%

2019 Mar       47   56%      35   44%
2019 Apr       83   94%      74   89%
2019 May       62   58%      61   63%

2019 Jun       72   58%      69   59%
2019 Jul      126   98%     113   96%
2019 Aug      131  109%     133  121%

2019 Sep      124  123%     151  164%
2019 Oct       56   57%      66   72%
2019 Nov       44   49%      58   69%

2019 Dec       59   57%      75   76%
2020 Jan*       9   11%       6    8%

[jamie]

Tony - third week feb is a long way out!!!!!
If your right then it’s going to be a short dairy season for many.

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[Awhituobs]

the next MJO would be due about then
but lows from the north are fickle things and not something to bank on

[spwill]

The SW winds have been pushing a lot of the moisture out of our region, tropical activity has been shut out like last Summer.

[TonyT]

Tony - third week feb is a long way out!!!!!
If your right then it’s going to be a short dairy season for many.

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Well, yes. Not unexpected, but there we are. Its certainly been an intense dry spell this month, and will remain so up to the third week in Feb which is your best chance for some rain in the next six weeks. It will likely get very dry again after that.

[Awhituobs]

what are you basing on getting very dry again in march?
its looking like a slow change to La Nina currently (sea temperatures and the SOI are slowly trending in that direction)
which could mean better chances for rain in the autumn

[TonyT]

what are you basing on getting very dry again in march?
its looking like a slow change to La Nina currently (sea temperatures and the SOI are slowly trending in that direction)
which could mean better chances for rain in the autumn

Marchs in analogue years have been sunny and dry. The anticyclones have remained dominant. The mid-February wet spell could be repeated in March - so 2-4 dry weeks after the mid-February rains, similar to what we are experiencing now, then a rainy spell mid-March(ish) then more anticyclones. April could go crazy bananas wet though if the analogues hold.

I'v been picking a weak La Nina for this summer since the middle of last year, but it just won't get its act together and get started. I'm now thinking if it does it will be pretty weak and not do much. The big question is, will the strong El Nino event be next summer or 21/22? If its going to be next summer, then it will need to get started July/August, which wont leave long for a weak Nina to do its thing. Having said that, we usually see Nina-like patterns while a major Nino is building.

[Awhituobs]

but that is just predicting on averages? i,e dry spells of up to 4 to 6 weeks are not unusual over the summer months and even autumn, we had a very dry autumn last year, was still bone dry in June here...don't want a repeat of that
the western tasman sea is warming up again and especially the Coral sea, so things could change to rain making lows from the north tasman in the autumn ...but who really knows that far ahead?

[Chris W]

Quite a humid start this morning.

[TonyT]

but that is just predicting on averages? i,e dry spells of up to 4 to 6 weeks are not unusual over the summer months and even autumn, we had a very dry autumn last year, was still bone dry in June here...don't want a repeat of that
the western tasman sea is warming up again and especially the Coral sea, so things could change to rain making lows from the north tasman in the autumn ...but who really knows that far ahead?

Well you asked! I tried to answer your previous question.

No one knows Brian, thats what makes predicting a valuable exercise. And some of us manage to make a living out of it. I don't think it matters how you make predictions, but whether they have substance and value for people. There are many and varied techniques and data sources which we can use. Of course dry spells are not unusual, but Jamie is telling us that for him this season is unusual and I think we should respect that. My prediction is that its about to get more unusual before it gets better.

[Richard]

Just past 30deg again for the fourth day, and that's with a cloud cover

[Dean.]

Yes high cloud here too and 31.7 degrees the highest in the country according to Metservice...a cooler southerly slowly making its way north

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, got up to 31C here before the dry southerly moved through just before 3pm.
Cooling down now, I think or hope to reasonable temperature. ?

[David]

Beautiful day but only 26.6C today, a little lower than I had thought... Tomorrow looking hotter though

[cbm]

Mine looks to have topped out at 30.5 before the breeze arrived.

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[tornado]

got up to 28.5 here. nice clear day. getting a bit cloudy now.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A cloudy but a rather warm day before the dry southerly came through just before 3pm.
It maximized at 31C and dropped town to 21C about an hour or so an hour later.
Southerly winds were fresh but died away later.

[Awhituobs]

long range models show rain....likely will change...from a NW Tasman low....but something at least...couple of weeks away
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

ps, Jamie,my soil moisture sensor is being affected by the wife watering the garden next to it lol
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... strain.gif

[David]

Just checking some of my stats, we're on 84mm for the last 90 days. Very dry but 2013 holds that particular record (51mm in 90 days).

[spwill]

January 2013 and 2015 were very dry across the Auckland region, Mangere recording only 6mm both months.

[Nev]

Yes, just 6mm here in Jan 2015 also. However, although it was a very dry month for most of Akld, there were a few notable exceptions due to a thin convergence line on the 31st, which in less than 3 hours dumped 32mm in Grey Lynn (Ricky's), 20mm at Awhitu (Brian's) and 9mm at Whangaparaoa (MS).

https://www.facebook.com/MetService/pho ... =3&theater