General March Weather

[Cyclone Tracy]

UK now following the Access scenario. https://www.weatherforum.nz/phpBB3/view ... 63#p190563

As I understand it the BOM model is based on the UKmet.

Spot on - Unified Model. The local models used by MS over New Zealand also from memory.

[melja]

Non measurable amount of rain in Rangiora.

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[tornado]

looks like more showers today. i see the low pressure is not coming in anymore. will our drought ever stop. i hope April or late march this high pressure can go away. but its good to have rain (showers) 3 days in a row. today being the third day.

[Awhituobs]

the TC has not even formed yet so the models are all over the place
you cant lock in anything yet either way
latest ECMWF still showing the first low from the north bringing rain this weekend

[tornado]

i see that that temps for the next week are in the lower 20s. it could change but nice to have some cooler weather. feels cool right now only 16 degrees here. wouldnt be surprised if there is any thunderstorms popping up inland north island today

[spwill]

Small changes in the track of the low can make a big difference to how much rain we get particularly Auckland where there is some sheltering to the east.

[cbm]

Long way out but the latest EC now also showing a direct hit on Northland from the ex TC late next week.

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[Cyclone Tracy]

GFS goes nuclear on the 18Z run. High impact for the NI. Still over 100 hours out, plenty of time for change but get out the

[spwill]

GFS trend indicates mainly fine weather for Auckland this weekend

[Awhituobs]

3 models now in general agreement for a strong ex TC to hit the NI next week !

[harleyb]

Putting this up for posterity. I'm too used to disappointments now to expect it to play out like this, but it still looks impressive as a forecast.

image.png

[Awhituobs]

I see that the sea surface temperatures are currently above normal right along the future track
which will keep up stronger for longer

[David]

I see despite it being of tropical origin, GFS has 15C max here on Tuesday with rain and strong SE. That would feel wintry!

[tornado]

had some heavy showers in south auckland today. and one was even thundery. at 9am today. we had a downpour with 4 thunder rumbles. dont get why metservice didnt issue a risk for thunderstorms for at least south auckland. some unstable skies around today for sure. 13 mms here.


yes still a chance that ex cyclone could hit us.


no rain this weekend but thats ok. we had precip here the last few days.

[tich]

I see despite it being of tropical origin, GFS has 15C max here on Tuesday with rain and strong SE. That would feel wintry!

I remember April 1982 in Rotorua. It was Cyclone Bernie, and the forecast on the radio was for cold southeasterly winds. I was confused - surely a tropical cyclone would bring warm air with it. (but later on realised that while the low pressure was coming from the north, it was dragging cold air from the south on its southwestern side)

[Awhituobs]

I see there are lightning active CB's in the BOP as predicted

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Cool day here today with it struggling to get to 16.7C, which was the maximum.
Mostly in the low teens with a light SE and continuous cloud cover.

[Awhituobs]

I see the BOM /UKMet model has it moving more to the west of the NI,and slowing down before finally moving over the NI like the euro model has which is actually better for rain ...GFS has it more direct hit (but the exact path is not locked in yet regardless)
got my pop corn

[David]

It looks like the general idea in the models this morning is a pass to the north, with Northland getting a soaking, moderate rainfall in Auckland and not so much for the Waikato. Still bound to swing back and forth though.

[Awhituobs]

only the GFS shows that
its been flip flopping on that
it might easily change again

[David]

only the GFS shows that
its been flip flopping on that
it might easily change again

When I looked this morning EC and ACCESS were showing a similar rainfall distribution as well

[Awhituobs]

I see now ECMWF has it shifted again but we still pegged to get usefull rain
but its still very early stages, the models will keep changing

just need the jet stream that is north of us to dip further south..which it is starting to do

[TonyT]

Compared to yesterday the ECMWF has tightened up the ensemble members' tracks, with fewer showing an excursion into the Tasman, but the mean path of the tracks now a lot closer to the far north of North Island than with yesterday's guidance.

[TonyT]

ECMWF continues to up the amplitude of the MJO through phases 1 to 3 in the next fortnight. GFS and others are coming on board with this idea. These are unfriendly phases for cyclones and sub-topical systems, they emphasise strong subtropical ridging and westerly waves entering the Tasman from the Southern Ocean. The net result will be a strong background push to keep the remains of the cyclone as far north of NZ as it can manage. I don't think the prospects of a major impact anywhere south of Northland are that great.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

After the clearance of overnight and morning cloud, a fine sunny day eventuated but cloud returned this evening.
Today's maximum was 18.7C.