General March Weather

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Awhituobs
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

amazing that makes our rain for that rain event almost as much as Ricky has had for the whole year!
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Re: General March Weather

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i actually did well with the rain yesterday. i got 36mm from the morning front and 6mm from the evening frront. i did hear distant thunder. (only 1 rumble) it seems like thunderstorm activity was fairly isolated. march so far has been less summery. witha high of 18c today.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

jamie wrote: Tue 24/03/2020 08:05 I was lucky and had basically 40mm in the 24 hours to midnight. That must be my highest 24 hour total since about October.....


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Glad the "wet last week of March" delivered for you.
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TonyT
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

David wrote: Mon 23/03/2020 20:03 Any of the long-term model watchers seeing any pattern change come April? CT/Tony/someone else? All I'm seeing until at least early April is high after high, getting a bit depressing.
If we follow the pattern of previous similar January to March periods then April should be more unsettled (which doesn't mean it will rain lots everywhere all the time, but at least there should be more potential for rain during the course of the month). I'll be checking out the longer term model data and some teleconnections stuff later today, so I might report back tomorrow.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by tich »

Showers and a bit of hail at times continuing in Akaroa. Even a light dusting of snow visible on the highest peaks (800m asl) on the western side of the harbour early this morning.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Razor »

2.8mm here, hardly a drought breaker but at least the dust will settle for a day
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by cbm »

In town (Leamington, Cambridge) 13.2mm Sunday, 42.6mm Monday at a PWS just down the road. So 55.8mm.
Out at family farm 10km away, 12.6mm Sunday, 19.6mm Monday, 32.2mm. MTD there now 53.8, YTD 86.2, finally should see the grass start growing again.
Very sorry Auckland and Canterbury did not get the same rain, your landscapes there must be getting diabolical by now. Several trees and shrubs around here in gardens and reserves are gonners, but everything that survived until now should recover.
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Re: General March Weather

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Coolest day here. Only 17c so far.
Windy too.. some showers around as well.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by David »

19.3C here today. First day of the year to not reach 20C.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Cold day here too with SW dying out during the afternoon.
Lit the fire this afternoon.
Today's maximum being 13C, with another 3.5mm in the rain-gauge from last night's precipitation.
Some graupel or soft hail pellets still around this morning, from last night.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

some heavy showers around....hit and miss..but if u get one, a couple of mm's
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Re: General March Weather

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yes another showery day today. not as windy as yesterday though. showers looks to ease Friday morning as a big blocking anticyclone comes in.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Models starting to ramp up tomorrow's front arriving from the Tasman and quite a lot of troughing now progged (somewhat out of the blue), but considerable variation between models and from run to run. Either this system is a bit of a curly one which might have a sting int he tail, or we are starting to see some artifacts in the modelling from reduced data inputs to the initialisation (ie maybe models will be less consistent and bring in more variation for a while).
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Kentish Kiwi »

TonyT wrote: Wed 25/03/2020 10:30 Models starting to ramp up tomorrow's front arriving from the Tasman and quite a lot of troughing now progged (somewhat out of the blue), but considerable variation between models and from run to run. Either this system is a bit of a curly one which might have a sting int he tail, or we are starting to see some artifacts in the modelling from reduced data inputs to the initialisation (ie maybe models will be less consistent and bring in more variation for a while).
Hi Tony, I wondered if you had a view on how the next two to four weeks are broadly shaping up, if you have had a chance to review the teleconnections and other relevant indicators?
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Kentish Kiwi wrote: Wed 25/03/2020 12:59
Hi Tony, I wondered if you had a view on how the next two to four weeks are broadly shaping up, if you have had a chance to review the teleconnections and other relevant indicators?
Some more rain to come for different parts of the country this week, especially east coast South Island tomorrow/Friday, and north and east coast North Island early next week. Then dry for a while as the next anticyclone rolls in and takes its time leaving in the first week of April. Good indications of another unsettled period potentially with a major low pressure system, mid April, then settling into a west to southwest pattern to take us to the end of April. Rainfall totals expected are pretty reasonable for most parts of the country, although a lot of that will fall mid-April so we might have a bit of a wait for it to come, and over 6 weeks, for many places only near the long term normal for the time of year. I'd still favour a ramp up towards La Nina over the winter, but it hasn't started yet. Usually the months with the Nina developing tend to be a bit dry and westerly orientated, but once it gets well established the westerlies switch off.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

woa the models are suddenly showing rain for Canterbury Friday
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Awhituobs wrote: Wed 25/03/2020 20:44 woa the models are suddenly showing rain for Canterbury Friday
And a good drop too \:D/

Has been a stunning autumn day here today with a high of 25deg and a light NW wind
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Kentish Kiwi »

Thanks Tony, much appreciated. Sounds like relatively standard fare for this time of year. The last time I was in NZ at this time of year was 2015 (when the cricket World Cup was finishing) and I seem to recall it being slightly warmer than it is at present (Auckland area), although that may simply be a result of poor memory.

For what it’s worth, I thought this was a great piece of analysis earlier in the month. I was monitoring closely as my girlfriend was over from Australia that week. Ended up being spot on.
TonyT wrote: Thu 12/03/2020 12:33 ECMWF continues to up the amplitude of the MJO through phases 1 to 3 in the next fortnight. GFS and others are coming on board with this idea. These are unfriendly phases for cyclones and sub-topical systems, they emphasise strong subtropical ridging and westerly waves entering the Tasman from the Southern Ocean. The net result will be a strong background push to keep the remains of the cyclone as far north of NZ as it can manage. I don't think the prospects of a major impact anywhere south of Northland are that great.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Seems (GFS) to be an upper trough cutting off and moving slowly over the South Island, which may explain the heavy rain now being modelled for Friday.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A nice fine day here but this afternoon a local burn-off covered the town with smoke like as it was like in the Aussie Fire Season.
Yuck!
Light winds from the southerly direction for much of the day.
Today's maximum was 20.3C.
A light frost this morning or overnight.
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Re: General March Weather

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Just experienced the most unusual wind gust, unlike anything I have ever experienced before. Its a lovely day here, sunny, mid 20s temp, light breeze off the sea (so pretty much easterly 5-10 knots), nothing unusual in the sky or in the prevailing conditions. I was outside hanging out the washing and from nowhere the wind speed increases, feels a little warmer, and the wind speed keeps increasing linearly over the space of about 10 seconds. Initially I thought a nor-wester had arrived. But no gustiness, just a steady, ramp up in wind speed seemingly from the north, In the space of ten seconds all the doors in the house slammed shut, windows too, washing nearly blew off the line, I thought the greenhouse would lift off its foundations and take off. Dust picked up, bushes bent over. Still no gustiness, just a linear increase in wind speed. I started to move towards the house for fear of my own safety if it continued to ramp up. Then it was gone, within 2-3 seconds back to 5 knots easterly. I would estimate at its peak it was 30-40 knots, but just for a couple of seconds, then within a further 2-3 seconds down to nothing. I looked up, no signs of any aeroplanes, meteors etc. One of the strangest wind gusts I have ever experienced.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Interesting Tony, the NW wind here is a very steady wind and no gusts at all so I cant imagine its gusty above Amberley.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Razor »

TonyT wrote: Thu 26/03/2020 14:34 Just experienced the most unusual wind gust, unlike anything I have ever experienced before. Its a lovely day here, sunny, mid 20s temp, light breeze off the sea (so pretty much easterly 5-10 knots), nothing unusual in the sky or in the prevailing conditions. I was outside hanging out the washing and from nowhere the wind speed increases, feels a little warmer, and the wind speed keeps increasing linearly over the space of about 10 seconds. Initially I thought a nor-wester had arrived. But no gustiness, just a steady, ramp up in wind speed seemingly from the north, In the space of ten seconds all the doors in the house slammed shut, windows too, washing nearly blew off the line, I thought the greenhouse would lift off its foundations and take off. Dust picked up, bushes bent over. Still no gustiness, just a linear increase in wind speed. I started to move towards the house for fear of my own safety if it continued to ramp up. Then it was gone, within 2-3 seconds back to 5 knots easterly. I would estimate at its peak it was 30-40 knots, but just for a couple of seconds, then within a further 2-3 seconds down to nothing. I looked up, no signs of any aeroplanes, meteors etc. One of the strangest wind gusts I have ever experienced.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Well guys one of the thing's I will be doing to keep the boredom away over the next few weeks is looking back at past weather events. Looking at rain radar, satellite, isobar and cliflo to see how it all worked. If anyone would like some of that data it is likely I'll have it since November 2016 and major events before then. Feel free to PM me :)
Last edited by Thunder081 on Thu 26/03/2020 16:15, edited 1 time in total.
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by harleyb »

TonyT wrote: Thu 26/03/2020 14:34 Just experienced the most unusual wind gust, unlike anything I have ever experienced before. Its a lovely day here, sunny, mid 20s temp, light breeze off the sea (so pretty much easterly 5-10 knots), nothing unusual in the sky or in the prevailing conditions. I was outside hanging out the washing and from nowhere the wind speed increases, feels a little warmer, and the wind speed keeps increasing linearly over the space of about 10 seconds. Initially I thought a nor-wester had arrived. But no gustiness, just a steady, ramp up in wind speed seemingly from the north, In the space of ten seconds all the doors in the house slammed shut, windows too, washing nearly blew off the line, I thought the greenhouse would lift off its foundations and take off. Dust picked up, bushes bent over. Still no gustiness, just a linear increase in wind speed. I started to move towards the house for fear of my own safety if it continued to ramp up. Then it was gone, within 2-3 seconds back to 5 knots easterly. I would estimate at its peak it was 30-40 knots, but just for a couple of seconds, then within a further 2-3 seconds down to nothing. I looked up, no signs of any aeroplanes, meteors etc. One of the strangest wind gusts I have ever experienced.
I had something like that happen years ago in rural Manawatu on a calm, sunny day -- late morning, from memory. I was biking along when a sudden sharp wind gust came from nowhere, seemingly from above, fanning out in all directions from more or less where I was. There was a single smallish cumulus cloud directly above me at the time so I figured it was some kind of downdraft from that? Otherwise there was no wind to speak of.
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