Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

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TonyT
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris W wrote: Wed 15/01/2020 12:42 It seems to me like the subtropical ridge has largely 'recovered' from the SSW over NZ in that we're heading into a more regular summer pattern. meanwhile over the South Atlantic the jet is still way further north in the direction in which the vortex was pushed out by the warming. I'd say the impacts are waning now. Maybe the change in the IOD helped?
There is a strong MJO influence in this part of the world currently.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Chris W »

That might have something to do with it then, though I understand little about it so I'll defer 🙂.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Chris W »

The stratospheric vortex already starting to reform, still displaced towards South America
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -85.79,297
Last edited by Chris W on Fri 06/03/2020 11:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

First sunset coming up for the South Pole in a couple of weeks. There is something significant I'm looking into at the moment on this subject but I'm just waiting for the latest NOAA data up to the end of Feb for the global stratosphere temperatures across various satellite methods. The 2019 SSW air chemistry impacts are well and truely still play but now across both hemispheres.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Chris W »

Interesting as I have just been reading that the NH vortex is very strong and have been watching the news as it has has been battering the UK.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

What I'm observing on 1 partically satellite method is quite remarkable, so I will share once the latest NOAA data is loaded for all methods. NOAA normally load all the methods in the 3rd week of the month for the prior month.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Chris W »

This sort of 70hPa angle from the vortex gave us some cold shots in spring, I’m thinking the same is possible later this month as best I can describe it as a kind of slingshot effect. There’s also that blocking high southwest of Australia to drive air south to cool down before returning at us. This is GFS output and perhaps unsurprisingly the GFS tropospheric output from today gives us cold weather later in the run although maybe over-egging the cold a bit given more of a maritime source than continental. This probably depends on the behaviour of the current blocking high over us and tropical/subtropical activity.
9F4BB79D-7DD3-4C95-A22B-8E867F0AE37C.png
Metcheck doesn’t look too interested (GFS again) in a circular set of heights around Antarctica, keeping the vortex centre over the pole but still with an angle towards us on this side.
https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/strat ... ecasts.asp
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

February data has come in overnight from NOAA. This is now the most significant stratospheric temperature change since the Mt Pinatubo eruption in early 1990’s :crazy: . According to the NOAA data set, the global stratosphere has continued to warm since November 2019 to now the highest temperature level since 1993.

Mt Pinatubo’s eruption took 6 weeks to commence changing the stratosphere’s global temperature. The mass influx of Ozone over Antarctica in late October from the SSW correlates to the initial movement of this new temperature spike. Then the Australian bush fires peaked in mid to late December (Hectares burnt). 2 major air chemistry events seems to have triggered this change. It took Mt Pinatubo’s eruption 6 months to start dropping the earth’s surface temperature. Interesting observations ahead in the coming months :smile:
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Awhituobs »

The globe has just had its second warmest Feb on record (second only to 2016)
a weak la nina might mean less likely for the globe to keep on breaking records for the next 6 months so much any way due to global warming
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The last time the global stratosphere recorded a 0.1+c temperature anomaly was December 1993. The last peak was in March 1992 when the anomaly was 1.17+c, 9 months after the Pinatubo eruption. Currently as at the end of Feb 2020 it is 0.29+c.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Chris W »

What I find very interesting is that right now the stratosphere is almost uniform in temperature (approx -45C) across the hemisphere at 10hPa, and warmer inside the forming vortex at 70hPa (-50C) than further towards the equator (-70C). I haven’t studied that before so I don’t know how normal that is.

There is still a bulge of 70hPa temperatures out towards South America and also west of there, i.e. where the vortex was displaced to, perhaps the vortex will be more spread out this winter than normal?
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

What does this all mean CT for us in terms of our weather in NZ. Will we still see effects going into Autumn and even Winter?
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by TonyT »

Conventional wisdom is that a warmer stratosphere accompanies a cooler troposphere, globally speaking. That appears not to be the case currently, but we may trend towards the globe cooling off a little in the coming months, especially if a Nina develops as there is doubtless a lag between stratosphere and troposphere.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

and just to add to that as well...…

Based on the previous 2 stratospheric positive temperature anomaly timelines from the large volcanic eruptions of 1982 & 1991, an affect on the surface temperature could commence within the next 2 months. This is based on the local energy equilibrium thermodynamics theory of the stratosphere and troposphere offsetting each other (one warms while the other cools and vice versa). More will be known once we see the March temperatures for the stratosphere released by NOAA in the coming weeks.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Latest research is displaying large Hadley cell impacts relating to significant enhancement/suppression in the convective activity
in the tropics in both hemisphere's which is still underway from the sudden stratospheric warming last September. This SSW event has caused flow on short term effects on the earth's climate, including tropical storm impacts.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 20GL088743
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Awhituobs »

it has not though, and looks unlikely too going forward, to have caused a colder than normal winter for NZ
(as predicted by some but which I said background global warming will negate)
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Richard »

And to have coincided with a solar minimum also means we should really be having a colder than normal winter, but then what is a normal winter? a winter of 20-30 years ago?. The winters of old are a thing of the past.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Awhituobs wrote: Tue 28/07/2020 08:09 it has not though, and looks unlikely too going forward, to have caused a colder than normal winter for NZ
(as predicted by some but which I said background global warming will negate)
This is a global event, not a NZ event. Research paper and current temperature anomalies explain that.

Mid and lower troposphere both became cooler in June. A clear first sign of a local equilibrium lag effect from the stratospheric warming in the earlier months. July's trend will also need to cool to verify the trend, which we wont know for a couple of weeks.
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Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SH) 2019

Unread post by Awhituobs »

but the Globe still recorded one of its warmest Junes on record (was right up there)
so you could say it might have been even warmer if this was not all happening?
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