First low level snow. 11-13th May.

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talbotmj15
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First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Seems both EC and GFS agree some low level snow is likely to around 3-400m. Heavy above 6-700m.

GFS won this battle so far. EC only just catching up.

GFS holding 10-15cm to 400m. Seems abit high to me but could it be right?
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by TonyT »

Not cold enough.
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by NZstorm »

Quite a good mid-level system in the gfs which implies good lift/precip possibilities.

And gfs 700mb temps showing quite a decent cold trough at that level.
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Snow flurries 4- 500m inland high country a possibility absolutely. And definite blanket on the mountains.
Chance for a gust front southerly change for Canterbury tonight also
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by Chris W »

Was thinking about that gust front potential, it's a sharp change in surface air temperature and some cold damming going on. Shame it will be dark though.
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

How is it both EC and GFS are both holding approx 5-7cm for 400m. Just seems abit off to me. We all picking snow now above 5-600m yet the models both say we are all wrong.
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by TonyT »

talbotmj15 wrote: Tue 11/05/2021 11:27 How is it both EC and GFS are both holding approx 5-7cm for 400m. Just seems abit off to me. We all picking snow now above 5-600m yet the models both say we are all wrong.
You do realise that models don't actually know what is going to happen? They provide guidance to help you make a forecast. You are free to include or disregard as much or as little of what they say as you choose! ;-) 8)

There won't be a substantial snowfall on an incoming anticyclone like this one. Some yes, but not a lot.
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

I agree Tony. Just not often i see both major models showing something that i just don't really agree with i don't see below 500m.

All the other data i look at suggests snow above 500m.
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by Awhituobs »

the high is digging a long way south on the ridge....the originating air mass coming around the bottom of that high is a long way south
so that does need to be taken into account
then its all about how fast it moves north and the time over warmer and warmer water to warm up?
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by Dean. »

A snow covered Tekapo this morning
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by kiwisk8er »

My mum reported snow on the mountains around Middlemarch this morning.
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Tekapo was in fiering line. There 720m and thats a reasonable dusting for the first snow for the season. And wouldnt be at all surprised if flurries reached 400m
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Dean. wrote: Wed 12/05/2021 07:51 A snow covered Tekapo this morning
The first photo looked as though a funnel cloud was trying to touch ground :eek:
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Re: First low level snow. 11-13th May.

Unread post by Dean. »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Wed 12/05/2021 18:34
Dean. wrote: Wed 12/05/2021 07:51 A snow covered Tekapo this morning
The first photo looked as though a funnel cloud was trying to touch ground :eek:
http://www.tekapotourism.co.nz/webcam.html

Both screen shots from this very handy site
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