General June Weather

[David]

10mm here today. Month to date running only about 50% of normal rainfall.

[Awhituobs]

36mm here
27mm at the ARC park
http://aklc.hydrotel.co.nz/hydrotel/cgi ... tchment=28
32mm in waiuku
https://www.ecowitt.net/home/index?id=4543

[jamie]

35mm here this afternoon. Sure did come down hard. At one point I saw the station showing 21mm inside the last hour.


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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Lower cloud and drizzle clearing away this morning and becoming partly cloudy with light NE developing.
Clouding in again this evening. 14.3C.

[Orion]

Black dark at present, foggy, 4.2°C.

[Awhituobs]

a minimum of only 13.5c overnight here
and currently 14.8c at 7am
very warm for winter
it was over 3c warmer than average the last 24 hours here , with the rain from the north

[TonyT]

a minimum of only 13.5c overnight here

Never got near that as a maximum here yesterday under the fog and low cloud!

[David]

Certainly been super mild here of late. Minimum on Sunday night was 15.8C! Hasn't been into single digit temperatures in 12 days now

[Cyclone Tracy]

Yes, a very mild first half of June. The parade of cut off low continues into the weekend with the Polar vortex's strength keeping the meridional flow and polar jet under lock and key for now. 38mm month to date so far locally.

[Razor]

Raining here in Lincoln. thats unexpected. At least its got rid of the fog

[Chris W]

Low risk of thunder for mid-Canterbury apparently but I doubt it. Next week or so looks very dreary.

[Willoughby]

Jamie's station running 2.5°C higher than it's climate normal for June so far...
http://www.hamiltonweather.co.nz/June2021.htm

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Low risk of thunder for mid-Canterbury apparently but I doubt it. N

Yes. I don't why they had a low risk for Canterbury. Maybe they thought that the low cloud and fog might give off a lightning strike???

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Low cloud and mist cleared away this morning but returned from mid-afternoon.
Today's max was 11.6C.

[Awhituobs]

looking at the long range on the models, looks like warm weather pattern to continue through June
might end up being one of the warmest Junes if the last week does not have a cold outbreak ?

[melja]

Very warm here in Blenheim, 5 day with highs 17c or higher with no sub zero morning temp.

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[David]

Looking at my wind rose this month, the vast majority is dominated by ENE/NE/NNE directions. So the warmer temperatures are not too surprising, but what is surprising is that it's also drier than normal

[darcyplumb]

Has anyone got any insight into the low that’s brewing for this weekend? I’m seeing the rain feed zone moving closer and closer to Ashburton which, as a resident, makes me nervous. The stop banks inland from town still have not been repaired fully and there are a lot of vulnerable farmers and their families.

[Bradley]

Has anyone got any insight into the low that’s brewing for this weekend? I’m seeing the rain feed zone moving closer and closer to Ashburton which, as a resident, makes me nervous. The stop banks inland from town still have not been repaired fully and there are a lot of vulnerable farmers and their families.

Will be around a third of what fell a few weeks ago for mid Canterbury, if that. GFS only has 15mm for Christchurch

[Cyclone Tracy]

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been below the negative threshold for the last 4 weeks. Once it gets to 8 weeks, the BoM will officially call a negative IOD event. The BoM's access S is projecting a moderate event with some ensemble members going for strong. There hasn't been a negative IOD event since 2016. Australian inland cut off lows, East coast lows and cyclonic Tasman gyres increase when there is a negative IOD event.

[spwill]

A lot of instability showing for the upper North Island on Saturday.

Some snow and snow making weather for the Otago Ski fields next few days, Coronet Peak currently has no snow, due to open Saturday.

[TonyT]

Has anyone got any insight into the low that’s brewing for this weekend? I’m seeing the rain feed zone moving closer and closer to Ashburton which, as a resident, makes me nervous. The stop banks inland from town still have not been repaired fully and there are a lot of vulnerable farmers and their families.

More of a North Canterbury event I feel. There is an increasingly confident trend in EC and GEM towards a 60-100mm+ event, but most other models (including the seemingly gold-standard ACCESSG) currently under 40mm for the event.

[darcyplumb]

Has anyone got any insight into the low that’s brewing for this weekend? I’m seeing the rain feed zone moving closer and closer to Ashburton which, as a resident, makes me nervous. The stop banks inland from town still have not been repaired fully and there are a lot of vulnerable farmers and their families.

More of a North Canterbury event I feel. There is an increasingly confident trend in EC and GEM towards a 60-100mm+ event, but most other models (including the seemingly gold-standard ACCESSG) currently under 40mm for the event.

Thanks for your reply. I’ll be watching things closely.

[Razor]

Low risk of thunder for mid-Canterbury apparently but I doubt it. N

Yes. I don't why they had a low risk for Canterbury. Maybe they thought that the low cloud and fog might give off a lightning strike???

There were some decent buildups to the S and SW of Lincoln yesterday afternoon, and briefly looked promising for a shower but it was too late in the day

[tich]

looking at the long range on the models, looks like warm weather pattern to continue through June
might end up being one of the warmest Junes if the last week does not have a cold outbreak ?

Looks like a spell of cold southerlies next week.