7-10th July low level snow?
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7-10th July low level snow?
Modelz seem fairly consistent at the moment for another cold snow event. Looks more inland than coastal.
Latest EC has snow to sea level and GFS has similar.
Still a week away but has been in models for about a week now. What are your thoughts?
Latest EC has snow to sea level and GFS has similar.
Still a week away but has been in models for about a week now. What are your thoughts?
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
Im more confused by the answer than the question Tony. Very clever. From that i take it your saying its a done deal and you have locked it in. 15cm to chch CBD?
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
What I'm saying is my thoughts are currently neutral. The model guidance is noted, but not yet trusted. We need to get closer to the event to be able to tie down what might and might not happen, and how likely various scenarios are. As of this morning's EC ensemble run, only 1/50 member brings snow to Christchurch on the Thursday, and 4/50 on the Friday. I think England winning the Euros is a better bet!talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Thu 01/07/2021 09:28Im more confused by the answer than the question Tony. Very clever. From that i take it your saying its a done deal and you have locked it in. 15cm to chch CBD?
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
Fantastic analysis this far out Tony.
Should be the start of some good frosts tonight matt.
Mike
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
You reckon? Im not convinced about the big frosts. EC and GFS both show like 1deg? EC shows sunday morning -2 but thats the best i can see for oxford.mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Thu 01/07/2021 11:10Fantastic analysis this far out Tony.
Should be the start of some good frosts tonight matt.
I need -2 to fire up my snowmaker.
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
Latest GFS run looks interesting....lets see what the projections are looking like in a day or two, but my layperson's level of confidence is slowly rising in some action weather for Tuesday/ Wednesday
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
Yes hints of possible evaporative cooling affect over Canterbury mid week. One to watch!
Mike
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
Ol Metservice already mentioning snow to inland southern NZ on their severe weather outlook
Auckland & Tauranga
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
getting the distinct impression that we'll just about be archiving this thread soon
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
See Metservice forecasting low level snow to 100 meters this coming Tuesday
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Re: 7-10th July low level snow?
GFS still holding low level snow. EC also showing it but not to same extent. Timing looks key to me. I think 3 scenarios are on the table. The rain comes first and cold too late. 2nd cold air arrives mid rain event. 3rd cold arrives just before rain begins.
Interesting one to watch.
Interesting one to watch.