La Nina Round 2

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Chris W
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La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Chris W »

NIWA were talking up a potential La Nina repeat on Twitter yesterday, and NOAA/BOM seem to indicate potential through later summer:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
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TonyT
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by TonyT »

:lol: Its already happening and has been signalled for quite a few months (since late summer).
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

0.6c SST drop in July for Nino 3.4. The cold upwelling at 55m is stronger than last year at the same time around 100W to 140W.
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by wembley »

A bit odd, since we have been told that La Nina was on the way out (until now that is).
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Awhituobs »

it was
and it had all gone back to neutral conditions (but with lingering effects)
but now its starting to re build...instead of either staying neutral or swinging to El Nino
I would say that we will see a very strong El Nino to follow in a couple of years, coinciding with the solar sun spot cycle
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Agencies and their models remain split on whether the threshold will be breached.
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TonyT
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by TonyT »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 03/09/2021 13:59 Agencies and their models remain split on whether the threshold will be breached.
Doesn't matter. Huey knows. 8)
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The La Nina threshold being breached is certainly a more favoured scenario now across most agencies. NOAA, going for a strong event in November / December
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Chris W »

Well, seems like we're there now with a north-easterly pattern setting up.
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

A significant cold water upwelling from 100m below the surface in October is making this look like a stronger La Nina than last year at the moment.
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

NOAA going for a Super La Nina in December to rival the 1973 event.
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Awhituobs »

maybe we might see a coral sea tropical cyclone before xmas?
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

There were 9 South Pacific cyclones between 1 Nov 1973 to 31 Jan 1974, 3 of those were the Coral sea. The current early sea surface temperatures would support a repeat performance if MJO plays its part.
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by TonyT »

Awhituobs wrote: Wed 27/10/2021 11:20 maybe we might see a coral sea tropical cyclone before xmas?
3rd week of November is a possibility.
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Re: La Nina Round 2

Unread post by Chris Raine »

I worked for New Zealand Met Service at Kelburn in the forecast room in 1973 -1974.Was a busy time with the South Pacific tropical cyclones.Plotting weather maps with winds mean speeds above 100 knots before the storms destroyed the radio masts.
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