Tropical Cyclone Dovi

[TonyT]

12Z plots continue to show varied outcomes.

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EC has about 25% chance of a passage across the central NI, 25% of a death in the southern eastern-Tasman, and near 50% of a slow decay sitting off the NI west coast between Taranaki and Auckland. The EC operational run weakens the core rapidly over Sunday and has it pass northeastwards over the south Auckland or northern Waikato during Monday. While the area impacted by this path and decay would be much smaller than seen on Sunday, it could mean 48hrs plus of strong to gale winds for that particular location.

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GFS is very similar, but with a wider spread across the North Island, including several runs taking the centre across the Auckland/Waikato area and out into the Bay of Plenty, similar to the EC.

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The Canadian still sees some potential for an eastern Tasman merry-go-round but seems to be favouring a passage from the west or even southwest across the Auckland region, again similar to the EC operational.

I think we can now be pretty confident the centre will lie off the NI west coast between Taranaki and Auckland on Sunday, which would put the zone of easterly gales from Taranaki through Kaikoura, and northwesterly gales from Northland through Waikato. Heaviest rain likely to be in the onshore flow from Mid Canterbury through Wairarapa. What happens after that is still up for debate though. The most likely scenario would see a slow decay and northeastwards movement over the Waikato area. I'll cross post this to the impacts thread as well.

[Nev]

Dovi is expected to peak today or tonight and begin extratropical transition tomorrow as it encounters strong wind shear and cooler SST's.
Central pressure at 7am down to 960 hPa, with 85 kt max winds and SST's around 27C.

[Nev]

MetService maintaining max winds of 85 knots (157 km/h), just one knot short of being a Cat 4. Central pressure down to 955 hPa.

[Nev]

MetService has upgraded Severe TC Dovi to Cat 4 this evening, with 95 knot (176 km/h) max winds and central pressure down to 940 hPa.

[Awhituobs]

crazy

[Nev]

Dovi is currently undergoing extratropical transition with eroding deep convection due to dry air entrainment being sheared to the SE of it LLCC.

[darcyplumb]

Dovi is currently undergoing extratropical transition with eroding deep convection due to dry air entrainment being sheared to the SE of it LLCC.

It always amazes me how quickly the structure of these cyclones can change.

[Awhituobs]

its more dangerous for NZ that it has happened quickly
severe gales are locked in
batten down the hatches

[darcyplumb]

its more dangerous for NZ that it has happened quickly
severe gales are locked in
batten down the hatches

I’ve suggested to my in laws that they delay their ferry crossing scheduled for Monday afternoon. I did see that the ferry companies have suspended bookings until the end of next week. Obviously anticipating a back log of passengers from cancelled services.

[Tornado Tim]

Still a cat 3 according to Metservice and this close to NZ. Probably its last designation as a cyclone, but cat 3 straight to a depression means that the depression is going pack a serious punch.

[Nev]

Yes, MetService had TC Dovi as a low-end Cat 3 about 680 km NW of Cape Reinga at 7am this morning, with max winds of 65 kt and central pressure up to 970 hPa. JTWC issued its final this morning.

[Nev]

Dovi has completed extratropical transition and was declared an ex-TC by MetService this afternoon.
Currently around 600 km west of Cape Reinga and moving ESE at about 20 kt, with 50 kt max winds and central pressure of 975 hPa.