UK Weather - Spring 2022

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The forecast for high pressure dominance has been delayed for a few days as frontal systems remain stuck over more southern parts of the UK bringing gloomy and damp weather to Devon. February ended with a wet day here in Tiverton and the next few days look to be similarly wet and miserable. Not a good start to Spring.

However, the Met Office seasonal forecast for Spring is much more optimistic, with the expectation of a warmer and drier than average Spring, although it mentions the possibility of strong winds early in the season. The 3-monthly contingency planners outlook is attached:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/g ... ners/index

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/c ... mam-v2.pdf
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

After a miserable couple of days, Friday and Saturday have produced plenty of sunshine for the SW of England and they have been nice days here in Tiverton, albeit a bit chilly in the NW breeze. The front moved away and has become stuck over more eastern parts of the UK and left us in the west in the clearer air - see the attached satellite photo for 12 noon on Friday. It also shows a lovely low (988mb at the time) to our SW.

The forecast for the next 5-7 days is not very confident as we potentially have a battle between winds from the east and the west. To my untrained eye, the Atlantic looks to be the winner, so after a few more dry and cool days, we will likely see the return of wind and rain.

The CET for March was 6.6°C (+2.1°C) up to the 4th and the EWR was 16mm up to the 3rd which is 21% of the monthly average of 74mm.
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The Atlantic and the mild air have won through with the cold air sinking south towards Greece/Turkey over the next few days - this seems to have been a repeating pattern for the last few winters - the one exception being the so called 'Beast from the East' in 2018. It might be a few more years before we see a spell of weather like that again.

We have seen some sharp frosts in the UK in the last few days (down to -7°C in a few places for the mornings of Sat/Sun/Mon), but again in the north of the UK. Very little, if any, frost here in the SW - just 2 ground frosts so far this month in Tiverton. If this rate of warming continues, we will have a Mediterranean climate by the middle of the century. 8)
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have got stuck in the last few days in a blocked weather pattern that may well persist for the coming week. With a blocking high over eastern Europe and low pressure to our SW + W we are in a strong southerly flow that is both mild and wet - we are getting a succession of lows and fronts moving north in this flow and keeping the weather very unsettled, especially here in the west.

Eastern counties of England had two lovely early Spring days on Thurs/Fri with plenty of warm sunshine and the temperature reached 17°C in a few places. However, here in the SW it was cloudy and drizzly and nowhere near as warm - we managed no more than 11°C here in Tiverton on both these days.

The cool and unsettled weather looks like continuing well into the coming week, but we should see a build of pressure later in the week from both the SW and NE, which will squeeze the rain bearing systems out to the north.

The CET for March was 6.9°C (+1.8°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was 26mm up to the 11th which is 35% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Today (Weds 16th March) has been wet over much of the southern half of the UK as a small low pressure systems moves NE across this part of the country. It has a lot of Saharan dust within its circulation and this has been giving some very orange and eerie skies to Spain and now into much of Western Europe. The rain has brought this dust down to the surface in SE England and there will be some messy cars tomorrow morning when the rain dries off. See a few of the pictures taken here on a Met Office tweet:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/15 ... 9176284167

This should be the last rain for quite a few days as high pressure builds in from the SW behind this low pressure system. The forecast has five sunny days across the south from Thursday with it being quite warm initially. As the wind swings round to the east by Sunday we will see cooler and drier air arrive off the Continent and the risk of overnight frost increases.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

High pressure is firmly in control of our weather here in the UK and this will remain the case for the coming week. It currently resides over eastern Europe giving us a general SE to E flow which does not have much cloud in it. Saturday (19th March) was the warmest day of the year so far on the west side of the UK (protection from the easterly breeze off a cold North Sea) with a temperature of 20.2°C recorded at Kinlochewe in the Western Highlands of Scotland. A cold pool curved NE in the flow from Europe on Sunday bringing chilly air back to the UK with temperatures of just 8°C on the east coast and the west much cooler than the previous day. It also brought a few showers into eastern parts and a sharp frost to these areas for Monday morning.

Here in Tiverton, we had two sunny days over the weekend with maximums of 15°C and 12°C for Saturday + Sunday respectively. No frost this morning as Ac cloud has spread over from nearby France making today's early sunshine very hazy..

The high pressure will hold its position this week and we will see increasingly warm air being advected our way with 20°C possible by midweek in southern parts. An early taste of summer!
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The dry and sunny weather continues over much of the UK and it has become quite warm for the time of the year - daytime maximums have been between 5-8°C above average with recent highest values being:

Tuesday 22nd March - 20.7°C at Porthmadog (NW Wales)
Wednesday 23rd March - 20.8°C at St James Park (London)
Thursday 24th March - 19.7°C at Usk (SE Wales) + Leconfield (Yorks)

We have had three sunny days in a row here in Tiverton and we reached 18°C today. Should be the same tomorrow (Fri 25th).

It will slowly become a little cooler into the weekend but the sunshine will persist for most of England + Wales. Next week we are looking at a big cool down as the wind swinging round to the north and brings a few showers. It could get rather cold by midweek.

The CET for March was 7.6°C (+2.2°C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 43mm up to the 22nd which is just 58% of the monthly average. Not much rainfall in the current forecast for the rest of March.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

As has been mentioned in the UK Winter thread, we will see quite a change in the weather here in the UK in the next few days as we lose the warm and sunny weather to something much colder and a little on the wintry side. More about that later and nearer the time.

The warm and sunny weather has lasted six days here in Tiverton with maximum temperatures in the range 16-18°C, which is five or more degrees above the average for late March. Some parts of the UK have seen temperatures up to 21°C and around 60 hours of sunshine in those 6 days, which is literally the maximum possible at this time of year.

This dry weather, with some days seeing the humidity down to 20-30%, has dried out the vegetation very quickly and there have been a few small moorland fires. This BBC article reports on a more serious fire this weekend on a small island off the west coast of Scotland that was used as an Anthrax testing site in the past - the fire may well have had a devastating effect on the birds that nest and breed there.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-60892350
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has turned much colder here in the UK in the last couple of days as a warm southerly breeze has been replaced with a cold NE one. It has brought widespread snow showers to all of the UK with settling snow in the east and on higher ground. See this BBC report for a few pictures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60941529

Here in Tiverton, the colder air arrived overnight (into Thurs 31st March) and even we had a few snow flurries just before dawn. Thursday was a cold and breezy one (max 7°C) with some lovely TCu/Cb development and a deep azure blue sky in-between, but we missed all of the showers.

The cold weather has come at just the wrong time for many - combined electricity and gas prices are rising 54% (on average) for domestic customers on 1st April just as we are turning up the heating again. Other fuels, such as oil + coal, have risen even more.

It looks like remaining cold into the weekend, but milder and probably a bit more unsettled next week.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The cold weather has continued into the weekend here in the UK with some sharp frosts overnight - temperatures were down to -6°C in southern England on Saturday morning. Plenty of wintry showers again today (Sat 2nd) over the UK, but we missed all of them here in Tiverton as they passed by on both sides of the town. A couple more cold days to come before it turns milder again (for a while) into next week.

The final CET for March was 7.9°C (+2.2°) and the final EWR was 50mm, which is just 67% of the monthly average.

March was a very sunny month over the UK - indeed it was the second sunniest for the country as a whole in the record that goes back to 1919. Scotland and Northern Ireland had their sunniest on record. Overall, it was much warmer, much drier and much sunnier than normal. More details in this Met Office press release.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... statistics
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Southern England + Wales had a very sharp frost for early April on Sunday (3rd April) morning. Lowest figures I can find are:

-7.6°C at St Harmon (Powys, mid Wales)
-7.5°C at Sennybridge (Powys, mid Wales
-7.4°C at RAF Benson (Oxfordshire)
-5.7°C at Santon Downham (Norfolk) + Woburn (Bedfordshire)

Even here in Tiverton the mercury fell to -3°C and in some of the valley cold spots up towards Exmoor, figures of -5°C/-6°C were reported. It will be interesting to see if this late and sharp frost has any effect on the UK wine industry. As the cold air spread south into France, many vineyards there lit fires amongst the vines to try and prevent damage to the plants.

It briefly turned milder and more unsettled at the beginning of the current week, but we are now transitioning back to a cool NW flow for the next few days. Looking further ahead there is the prospect of something a little milder and more settled next week.

The CET for April was 6.5°C (+0.1°C) up to the 5th and the EWR was 9mm also up to the 5th, which is 15% of the monthly average of 62mm. April is currently running colder than both February + March despite itself being a little warmer than average!
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have had a run of frosty nights in the last few days culminating in a widespread frost over the UK on Sunday morning with a few sites getting as low as -6°C or -7°C. Not record breaking, but still cold for mid-April and sensitive plants will not have been happy. Much of the tree blossom in town (and my Camellia) turned brown with the earlier frosts and has fallen to the floor - hence shortening the usual 2-3 weeks enjoying this spectacle.

The supply of Arctic air has now been cut off and we are starting to draw our air up from the south. This morning (Monday 11th) we can see the evidence in the sky with bands of Altocumulus Castellanus clouds, some with virga, drifting northward - they have given a few elevated lightning flashes further to my SW over Cornwall.

The coming week will be much milder and mostly dry, particularly from midweek onwards. If we get any sunshine, we could see the mercury hit 20°C in the more favoured locations. This is good news for our much inflated utility bills.

The CET for April was 6.8°C (+0.2°C) up to the 10th and the EWR was 21mm up to the 9th, which is 34% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has certainly improved in the lead up to Easter with sunshine returning to more southern + eastern parts of the UK. Yesterday (Fri 15th April) was the warmest day of the year so far with 23.4°C recorded at St James Park in London and despite less sunshine here in Tiverton, we did manage a pleasant 19°C. The fine and settled weather looks set to continue through much of the Easter holiday, although as the wind has now gone round to more of a south easterly or easterly, the temperatures will moderate a bit, particularly in more eastern parts. Saturday morning dawned very grey and misty in Tiverton, but all the low cloud has burnt off and we now have warm sunshine and a lunchtime temperature approaching 16°C. Hopefully the warmer weather will allow the hospitality industry to start recouping some of the lost revenue of the last couple of years.

After Easter, the models are a bit mixed, but the general theme is a little cooler (but not cold) and more unsettled, although rainfall amounts do not look large.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have in place what is known as 'Northern Blocking' which will bring cool and windy weather from the east - if this had occurred in winter, it would have been bitterly cold with snow flurries. The current high, near Iceland, is on the small size, and quite often, this set-up will see high pressure extending from Greenland all the way to Scandinavia.

It has remained mild since the Easter weekend with sunshine at times, but the easterly breeze is picking up today (Fri 22nd April) and we have a lot more cloud in southern parts. This type of rather boring weather will continue for a few days with little if any rain in current forecasts.

The CET for April was 9.2°C (+1.7°C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 28mm up to the 20th, which is 46% of the monthly average.

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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

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The high pressure has persisted to the north of the UK and we remain in a run of easterly winds. The weather is very benign with nothing of note happening, although things are beginning to look a little dry - average rainfall for the last 6 months looks some way below normal and there is nothing much in the forecasts out to 10 days.

It has been fine and dry here in Tiverton over the last few days with plenty of sunshine and it has felt pleasantly warm, but more cloud looks to be coming for the next few days and it will feel cooler without the sun. No signs in the models of any real warmth well into May.

This tweet from an EA employee illustrates the lack of rainfall in the UK in the last 6 months very well - only February 2022 was wetter than average.

https://twitter.com/DaveThroup/status/1 ... 6231588864
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The benign weather continues here in the UK as high pressure remains the dominant force in our weather. There has been some rain, but the deficit for 2022 continues to build. Looking forward, apart from a little rain this weekend, we can see dry and increasingly warm weather for next week and beyond.

The final CET for April was 9.1 (+1.2°C) and the EWR was 31mm which is just 51% of the monthly average. The so called 'April showers' did not turn up. This summary from the Met Office reveals that April was a little warmer and sunnier than average, but mostly very dry - apart from in Northern Scotland. For the second year running, the incidence of frosty nights in April was higher than average.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/05/0 ... y-weather/
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The UK weather is still mostly dominated by high pressure, although we do have a couple of small low pressure systems passing across more southern parts at the moment before the high pressure builds again from the SW. We are hopeful of a decent rainfall tonight and into Wednesday morning, but that looks to be it for a while as we should see increasingly warm and dry weather into the weekend and beyond. Not a lot of weather happening for even us Brits to talk or moan about!

The CET for May was 12.5°C (+2.4°C) up to the 9th and the EWR was 8mm up to the 8th which is just 13% of the monthly average of 63mm. It should be noted that the CET figure is still being compared to the 1961-1990 averages, but the EWR rainfall pages have recently been updated and now compare to the recent 1991-2020 period. I guess the CET average comparator will switch to the later period in due course.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

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Whilst it has been mostly dry for the last few days, we have not seen the long period of warmth and sunshine as had been hoped for last time I posted. Some warmer air is arriving today (Sat 14th May), but nothing of note, and the showers now moving north from the SW Approaches will not bring much in the way of thunder overnight, despite much hype and hyperbole. Looking forward, it will stay on the warm side for a few days and become rather humid, but weather fronts approaching from the west next week will keep my neck of the woods mostly cloudy with the chance of rain. There is a better chance of some sunshine and warmth for the SE - as is usually the case.

The was a very bright meteor seen across large areas of the SW in the early hours of Thursday morning, with the possibility of another landing of material on the ground - this time in Somerset?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-61423796
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

There was rather more thunder than I expected overnight Sat/Sun and on subsequent days, although most of it missed us here in the SW - I had to be content with a couple of weak rumbles early on Sunday and a few distant flashes of lightning. Anyway, one day of thunder for 2022 is already 50% of what we managed last year!

Yesterday (Tues 17th May) was the warmest day of the year so far, but the heat was mostly confined to eastern counties and London Heathrow Airport recorded 27.5°C as its maximum. The Met Office have produced an interesting blog entry looking at the annual date of the first incidence of a temperature of 25°C in the UK - this figure is used to describe a 'hot day' for the UK - and it appears it has been getting earlier and earlier. 8-o

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/05/1 ... y-unusual/

The CET for May was 13.3°C (+2.6°C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 26mm up to the 15th which is 42% of the monthly average. There has been a lack of cold nights this month.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

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An area of thunderstorms and heavy rain developed to the south and east of the UK on Wednesday (18th May) afternoon and drifted NE with quite a bit of it catching more eastern parts of the south of the UK - nothing here in the SW, though. The attached lightning map (for 3pm Thurs to 6am Fri morning) records 128,000 strikes over the UK and near continent with the Met Office estimating that 28,000 of those were directly over the UK. People on the ground, especially south and east of London report a period of continuous lightning and loud booming thunder.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Major event going on there, Simon, according to the Blitz.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Indeed John, it was quite a lightning show for the SE of England. Nowt here in the SW apart from the usual period of rain followed by some fog.

Since the storms of last Weds/Thurs, the weather has calmed down in the UK, with all the action in terms of heat and storms switching to Europe. The UK has seen quiet and normal weather for the last few days with a little bit of rain and a little bit of sunshine. Looking forward and I am going to use a bit of conjecture to predict the weather. The Platinum Jubilee celebrations start the weekend after next with a one-off Bank Holiday on Thursday 2nd June (and the late May BH has been moved to Friday 3rd June to give a four-day weekend), and in recent years the Royals have been blessed with warmth and sunshine on their important days, so I am going for decent warm spell around that time. Interestingly, the long term models are beginning to agree with this ridiculous forecast. :lol:

The CET for May was 13.6°C (+2.8°C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 39mm up to the 20th, which is 63% of the monthly average. Despite there only being one proper 'warm' day in the month of May so far, we are running at nearly 3°C above the 1961-1990 average.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather in the UK has been rather showery for the last few days with a few thunderstorms and a couple of funnel clouds observed. We even managed a couple of distant rumbles of thunder here in Tiverton - that makes two days for the year so far in this storm desert. It has also turned rather cool with a late air frost in parts of East Anglia this morning (Mon 30th May).

The weather will likely improve during this week and should be dry and sunny for the early part of the Platinum Jubilee celebrations, but the Royal luck might not hold until the weekend as we could see some rain by then. The consistency of the 5-7 day outlook seems to have declined in the last few months with some odd changes in the weather, even though not a lot is actually happening.

We had another earthquake today - a 3.8 magnitude one in Shropshire.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-s ... e-61636678
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The final CET for May was 13.1°C (+1.9°C) and the final EWR was 59mm which is 94% of the monthly average.

For the UK as a whole, it was the fifth warmest May as well as the fifth warmest Spring in the current record stretching back to 1884. For May, this was more due to warm nights rather than warm days - indeed, the temperature only reached or exceeded 25°C on just one day - the 17th.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... -of-spring

May was slightly wetter than average, but this was down to Scotland - England & Wales only had about 90% of the monthly rainfall average. In terms of sunshine it was a rather dull month, with about 80% of the normal monthly ration, which makes the warmth all the more remarkable.
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