Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

[Nev]

Could be a reasonable chance of a developing tropical low between Vanuatu and New Caledonia becoming a TC in in the next day or two. Fiji Met this afternoon increased its chances in the next 24 hours to moderate. JTWC has also finally came on board this afternoon, although with just a low chance at this stage. Deep flaring convection to the north over the last 48 hours now starting to wrap around its LLCC. Moderate shear with SST's around 29-30C.

[Nev]

Fiji Met began issuing Advisories for our tropical low to the north this evening and expect that it may become a TC tomorrow night.

[Nev]

TC Eva was named by Fiji Met this evening. Eva will stall over the next 24 hours as a weak subtropical ridge builds to the east, eventually turning it back WSW.

[Awhituobs]

amazing how far south this is before finally getting to be a named system

[Nev]

At 25.8 degrees south, technically MetService should have named it, which would've been a first...

[Nev]

Eva now encountering strong shear, displacing convection to the east of its exposed LLCC. Drier air at lower levels also weakening Eva.

[Nev]

Former TC Eva was declared extratropical by MetService around 8:30pm on Friday evening.

[Blowy]

Some pretty meaty rainfall numbers for the East Coast from 96SP

Upward of 300mm for Hastings next week .... lets see

"Rain from the East - Three Days at Least"

[Nev]

Mod Note: See separate thread for TC Fili named by Fiji Met today.

[Nev]

Late in the season TC Gina was named by Fiji Met this morning and looks to cross Vanuatu's northern islands tonight...

[Awhituobs]

seems to be occuring more often (been a number now since the year 2000)

[Nev]

Gina looks to have crossed the island of Epi around midnight and is currently about 60 km NNW of Port Vila, with max winds of 35 knots (down from 40 knots yesterday) and maintaining a central pressure of 998 hPa. Deep convection also continues to be sheared to the SE of its LLCC.

[Nev]

Both Fiji Met and JTWC issued their Final Advisories yesterday evening, as Gina transitioned into a subtropical storm (having both tropical and midlatitude cyclone features) overnight, with convection well sheared to the SE its fully exposed LLCC.