Its only a "non-event" if you think of it in terms of rain/snow potential. In terms of the degree of cold its a significant event. Plus, it may well be too windy for frost Wednesday night.
Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2886
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1161 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5161
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 734 times
- Been thanked: 939 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
GFS certainly more bullish than other models still- for ChCh
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christchurch Rocks
-
- Posts: 18542
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1785 times
- Been thanked: 1429 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
I reckon it will be nothing much here, possibly a couple of wintry showers and a bitterly cold wind. ....but then?
Could be a risk of a thunderstorm or even a thunder clap, especially if MS say NO THUNDERSTORMS on their thunderstorm risk page.![Tounge ;P](./images/smilies/cutetongue.gif)
Could be a risk of a thunderstorm or even a thunder clap, especially if MS say NO THUNDERSTORMS on their thunderstorm risk page.
![Tounge ;P](./images/smilies/cutetongue.gif)
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5161
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 734 times
- Been thanked: 939 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
All the models I looked at this morning now have some level of snow on the ground for ChCh now. GFS has actually ramped up the moisture a nudge and is suggesting a significant fall. GFS also wants to put snow on the ground in Wellington for a while too. Is it an outlier model for this one? Time will tell.
Most of the rest are suggesting a range from a dusting to a few cms for ChCh
Most of the rest are suggesting a range from a dusting to a few cms for ChCh
Christchurch Rocks
-
- Posts: 2717
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 359 times
- Been thanked: 622 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
At this stage it certainly looks like a dusting for eastern south island areas.
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
- moylanr
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Fri 20/07/2012 14:41
- Location: Christchurch (work: Harewood, AH: Halswell)
- Has thanked: 115 times
- Been thanked: 39 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Could be interesting power loads. At this time of year there’s ~4% less local generation (25MW) available to respond for load management.
-
- Posts: 1718
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
- Location: Ashburton
- Has thanked: 430 times
- Been thanked: 554 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Pretty much how I see it
Sent from my SM-A226B using TapatalkYou do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2886
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1161 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
We can be sure there will be cries of anguish from the power industry and maybe even a few brief blackouts - nearly happened a couple of times in the winter, and this is colder.
Some people may have problems getting to work on Wednesday morning. I suspect social media will light up with "its snowing here" posts! (if the power stays on!)
- moylanr
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Fri 20/07/2012 14:41
- Location: Christchurch (work: Harewood, AH: Halswell)
- Has thanked: 115 times
- Been thanked: 39 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
I was thinking of just this region and I don’t expect any power supply load issues for customers. Neither locally nor NZ wide.TonyT wrote: ↑Mon 03/10/2022 09:48We can be sure there will be cries of anguish from the power industry and maybe even a few brief blackouts - nearly happened a couple of times in the winter, and this is colder.
Some people may have problems getting to work on Wednesday morning. I suspect social media will light up with "its snowing here" posts! (if the power stays on!)
The Customer Advice Notices from Transpower that have come to the media’s attention in the last year are just notices, for situational awareness and industry response.
-
- Posts: 1033
- Joined: Fri 17/10/2008 08:50
- Location: Cambridge, Waikato NZ
- Has thanked: 13 times
- Been thanked: 214 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
From what I can find on clifo the -2C forecast for Central Waikato on Thursday night has only happened once in 100+ years of records in the month of October. In some ways then a bold call but can see -5°C dewpoint in the models. Nervous time for Blueberry and Kiwifruit growers .
Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4880
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 396 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Today's model runs suggest a more longer S-SW flow on Thursday now extending the shower belts from Rakaia northwards through until about 12pm.
Which would increase the accumulation for the city and surrounds, without jumping the gun I am getting more and more enthusiastic about a light to moderate dusting.
Interesting read from a Stuff article yesterday which dug up archives from 1968 and 1969 of snowfalls on the 10th and 11th of October.
The better wording for this is snow is rare in October, but not unheard of.
Which would increase the accumulation for the city and surrounds, without jumping the gun I am getting more and more enthusiastic about a light to moderate dusting.
Interesting read from a Stuff article yesterday which dug up archives from 1968 and 1969 of snowfalls on the 10th and 11th of October.
The better wording for this is snow is rare in October, but not unheard of.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- Richard
- Posts: 8417
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1686 times
- Been thanked: 808 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Common for here if the air flow is super cold, a strong daytime wind dies away as it gets dark and then after the sun comes up it kicks into gear again, meaning a dry frost.
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5161
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 734 times
- Been thanked: 939 times
Re: General October Weather
MS throwing possible TS into the mix for Wednesday night now too I see.
Christchurch Rocks
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/476 ... pabilitiesmoylanr wrote: ↑Mon 03/10/2022 10:04I was thinking of just this region and I don’t expect any power supply load issues for customers. Neither locally nor NZ wide.TonyT wrote: ↑Mon 03/10/2022 09:48
We can be sure there will be cries of anguish from the power industry and maybe even a few brief blackouts - nearly happened a couple of times in the winter, and this is colder.
Some people may have problems getting to work on Wednesday morning. I suspect social media will light up with "its snowing here" posts! (if the power stays on!)
The Customer Advice Notices from Transpower that have come to the media’s attention in the last year are just notices, for situational awareness and industry response.
-
- Posts: 9943
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 874 times
- Been thanked: 882 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Nothing much for us in the north with this system apart from how low will temperatures fall ? Early Friday morning will be interesting here with very cold dry air under clear skies.
-
- Posts: 2717
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 359 times
- Been thanked: 622 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
There is a break between the initial change in morning and the upper trough coming in the afternoon. If it's warm enough at the surface with the second main change thunder/ hail could well develop in afternoon/ evening in Canterbury. Snow flurries likely to sea level at night
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
- David
- Posts: 7596
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 424 times
- Been thanked: 834 times
- Contact:
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Yes, I think there’s a good chance my record low October temp will be broken. Currently it’s 3.1C in 2014.
- kiwisk8er
- Posts: 332
- Joined: Mon 03/04/2006 13:17
- Location: Mosgiel, Dunedin 20 m ASL
- Has thanked: 24 times
- Been thanked: 46 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Waiting to see what happens here in Dunedin. They're predicting snow to sea level on Wednesday. I went out and got extra frost cloth to protect a couple of new fruit trees.
-
- Posts: 466
- Joined: Mon 27/05/2013 19:16
- Location: Inland mayfield 310asl
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 7 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
First time in a long time I’ve seen MetService mention warning amounts of snow to sea level for Canterbury, can’t remember when the last time would’ve been?
Auckland & Tauranga
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5161
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 734 times
- Been thanked: 939 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Yes latest MS update appears to have them "locking in" sea level snow
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christchurch Rocks
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5161
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 734 times
- Been thanked: 939 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
I note to the above that Warning Criteria for snow = 10cm
Christchurch Rocks
-
- Posts: 138
- Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
- Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
- Has thanked: 48 times
- Been thanked: 18 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
I see metservice are now also mentioning seal level snow for Wellington Thursday morning
- Vertigo
- Posts: 1184
- Joined: Sun 09/12/2007 23:50
- Location: Henderson, Auckland
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 12 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
Making a rare appearance here because I was looking at the model runs for this and it gave me 2011 vibes, so came to see what all of you thought - evidently the same. Wondering if the snow will make it up to Auckland again...
-
- Posts: 241
- Joined: Sat 16/05/2009 21:10
- Location: Strathmore/Seatoun (on the ridgeline), Wellington
- Has thanked: 198 times
- Been thanked: 347 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
2 of the models on Windy are now showing "snow" in Wellington for Thursday just before dawn.
Metservice Forecast map for the same time: Thinking I will NOT bike to work on Thursday and work from home instead!
Metservice Forecast map for the same time: Thinking I will NOT bike to work on Thursday and work from home instead!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- Richard
- Posts: 8417
- Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
- Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 1686 times
- Been thanked: 808 times
Re: Polar Blast - Oct 5-6
And at 5 and 6 deg, thats not right. Even for here at 242m asl the MS have between 3 and 5deg, dont think soBeaconHill wrote: ↑Tue 04/10/2022 17:05 2 of the models on Windy are now showing "snow" in Wellington for Thursday just before dawn.
Wellington 1.jpg
Wellington 2.jpg
Metservice Forecast map for the same time:
Metservice.jpg
Thinking I will NOT bike to work on Thursday and work from home instead!
![d'oh! #-o](./images/smilies/eusa_doh.gif)