Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

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spwill
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Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by spwill »

The top of Northland is catching some thunderstorm activity currently.

The instability numbers in the modelling have been quite big for much of the North Island today.(big by NZ standards)
See how the day unfolds.
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Nev »

Yep, here we go again, particularly for much of the North Island...
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

An active front moves eastwards across the North Island today bringing periods of heavy rain and strong northerly winds to many areas. There is a high risk of thunderstorms affecting North Island regions from Whanganui, Taihape, and the ranges of Hawke's Bay and Gisborne northwards, and a moderate risk of thunderstorms from evening for Manawatu, Horowhenua, the Kapiti Coast, Wairarapa and the Tararua District, as drawn on the chart. These thunderstorms will bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, strong winds gusting 90 to 110 km/h, and hail of 5 to 15 mm diameter. There is also moderate confidence that some of these thunderstorms could become SEVERE with damaging wind gusts greater than 110 km/h and possible small tornadoes, and for the central North Island from Waikato southwards localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/hr.

For the South Island, an unstable northwest flow persists through today, bringing a moderate risk of thunderstorms to Buller, Westland and the adjacent Alps, and Fiordland. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Dunedin, Clutha and coastal Southland this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur will bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, and hail of 5 to 15 mm diameter. There is also the risk of a small coastal tornado about the West Coast.

Finally, there is a low risk of thunderstorms for the remainder of the North Island not covered by the high or moderate risk areas, and for northern and eastern parts of the South Island, as depicted on the chart.

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook Map - Is. 22 Nov 8.07am.png
Issued: 8:08am Tue, 22 Nov
Valid to midnight Tue, 22 Nov
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by David »

Wonderful timing for my weather station transmitter to have failed. It did last 13 years though, so that is impressive enough :smile:
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Looking at the models in a bit more depth, it appears there is a risk of storms at two times for the Waikato/South Auckland. One around 5-7 PM with the pre-frontal activity and then 10PM -1AM for the squall line.

Both will be forming in a highly sheared environment, with fairly high helicity numbers for NZ.

A nado or waterspout fairly probable in both scenarios.
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Rogue »

2022112121.93112.skewt.parc.gif
10am Whenuapai sounding
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by David »

Nothing here just yet.

Very strangely, my temp/humidity/rainfall data just reappeared after 21 hours with total data loss. Spent plenty of time troubleshooting yesterday evening, even went and got a new battery to try to rule out a defective battery.

Oh well, already ordered the new transmitter so I guess I'll be able to keep this old one as a backup :lol:
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by spwill »

Some thunderstorm activity spread down from the north this afternoon but missed here, staying dry in Mt Eden so far.
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Lots of elevated thunderstorms around Waikato currently. Lightning like turning a light switch to the horizon. Storms and showers developed very quickly in about 3 radar scans or so.
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by David »

Is what’s on the radar now all that’s coming through? Looks like a bit of a bust for Auck :(
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Nev »

Akld may get hammered shortly if that incoming cell to NW stays active...
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by harveyt86 »

Nev wrote: Tue 22/11/2022 21:02 Akld may get hammered shortly if that incoming cell to NW stays active...
Looks like it might just slip down the west coast to the south?
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by spwill »

Observing distant lightning in the western sky, mod showers here.
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

CG's cracking everywhere...
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Seems to be quite active. Another strike for the Sky Tower looks likely plus a "Miniature" tornado risk :eek:
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by hypersonic »

Lightning strikes every 3 - 4 minutes off to the west here at the moment, still quite distant
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Nev »

Shocking little story from the West Coast... 8-o

'A Hokitika man considers himself lucky to tell the tale of being struck by lightning yesterday afternoon and his ute bursting into flames'...
'Thankfully, the ute had diesel in its tank, not petrol, and an explosion never came'...

'Lightning strike: Big bang, bright flash, ute catches fire near Hokitika' - NZ Herald
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by cbm »

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 6190596096
My station recorded similar, about 40mm in an hour between 8 and 9pm. Didn't get that first band here so bad in Cambridge town (maintain the rain station about 8km away at family farm), but got second heavy band about 11pm.
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by Nev »

Nice MS lightning graphic for the 24 hrs to 9am this morning, plus a video posted by Brian from Akld's Manukau Heads last night...

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 8908198912
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Re: Thunderstorm activity, 22 Nov.

Unread post by harveyt86 »

Was rather frustrating seeing the storms slide east and west of us yesterday! That graphic shows it perfectly
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