Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Looks like Judy may have peaked overnight as she starts to encounter stronger shear and cooler SST's. Fiji Met earlier this morning had 10 minute max winds of 95 knots and down to 945 hPa.

Meanwhile JTWC have also issued a TC Formation Alert for our second TD about 900 km NW of Port Vila.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Judy slowing weakening with pressure now up to 948 hPa and max winds of 90 knots (10 minute).

Meanwhile JTWC have have issued its first TC Advisory for the tropical low now about 800 km WNW of Port Vila with its centre expected to hit Port Vila late tomorrow.

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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Kevin was named by Fiji Met this morning. Currently 990 hPa with max winds of 40 knots.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Judy has weakened to Cat 3 this afternoon.

Meanwhile, TC Kevin has rapidly intensified to Cat 2 and is currently at 983 hPa with max winds of 50 knots.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Severe Cat 3 TC Judy is currently passing about 1000 km north of Cape Reinga.

TC Kevin has also just been upgraded to Cat 3 and is currently about 300 km NW of Port Vila, with 65 knot max winds and down to 974 hPa. Vanuatu has also experienced a shallow M6.5 quake about 30 km off the west coast of Vanuatu's northern and largest of island of Espiritu Santo this morning at 7:04am NZDT, followed by a M5.4 aftershock at 7:11am NZDT.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Judy has been downgraded to Cat 2 by MetService this evening and expect she'll be extratropical in the next 24 hrs.

TC Kevin continues to intensify as is now just shy of Cat 4 with winds of 85 knots (157 km/h) and down to 957 hPa as his pinhole eye passes very close to the SW of Port Vila on Efate island this evening...
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by BeaconHill »

Port Vila looks to be getting slammed way worse than Judy.
Check @dailypostdan on twitter for updates tomorrow on damage (if there is power!)
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Kevin's eye crossed the island of Erromango last night and currently lies just SE of the island of Tanna.
Fiji Met has maintained max winds of 85 knots earlier this morning (1 knot shy of Cat 4) with pressure down to 952 hPa.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Kevin has just been officially upgraded to Cat 4 by Fiji Met this morning, with max winds of 90 knots and central pressure down to 948 hPa.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Ex-TC Judy has been reclassified as a subtropical low by MetService this afternoon.

TC Kevin has rapidly intensified today and has just been upgraded to Cat 5 by Fiji Met this afternoon.
Currently with max winds of 110 knots and central pressure down to 930 hPa.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Kevin's 10 minute max winds now up to 115 km/h and central pressure down to 925 hPa.
TC Kevin has exceeded all expectations today. Passing over waters already churned up by the passage of TC Judy, it appeared unlikely there would be enough energy to support the system reaching its current intensity. However, increasing shear may start to take its toll tonight.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Kevin has just been downgraded to Cat 4 by Fiji Met this morning, as he encounters increased shear and much cooler SST's around 24-25C.
Max winds currently 100 knots and central pressure uo to 941 hPa.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Kevin has been downgraded to Cat 3 by MetService this evening, wth max winds of 85 knots and central pressure up to 955 hPa. Kevin is rapidly weakening with convection sheared to the SE of its LLCC, along with dry air from the west, and should complete extratropical transition within the next 24 hours.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Ex-TC Kevin was downgraded to Cat 2 by MetService around 7am this morning and this afternoon has been reclassified as a subtropical low, with max winds of 35 knots and central pressure of 980 hPa.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

JTWC have issued a TC Formation Alert for a small tropical low about 230 km east of Niue this afternoon.
Fiji Met currently rates its chances within the next 48 hours as very low... :-k
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

The alert for the tropical low mentioned above didn't amount to much and its now well ESE of Niue.
JTWC also issued another TC Formation Alert for a tropical low west of Niue yesterday afternoon, but they have just withdrawn that.

Another developing tropical low about 400 km WNW of Port Vila, Vanuatu is worth keeping an eye on in the next few days though.
Conditions are currently favourable as it heads ESE, with low shear and SST's around 28-29C...
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by harleyb »

Surely a rogue output from GFS. Just imagine if this one came off. I've never seen a pressure so low...
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Severe TC Winston at 884 hPa in 2016 is the Southern Hemisphere's most intense TC on record (with the possible exception of TC Mahina in 1899), as well as the strongest to make landfall on record, peaking shortly before smashing into Viti Levu, Fiji. Winston was also the costliest TC on record in the South Pacific basin, until it was surpassed by Cyclone Gabrielle earlier this year.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

GFS now have that tropical low, currently about 300 km WNW of Darwin, peaking with a low pressure down to 940 hPa just before landfall somewhere along WA's Kimberley/Pilbara coast mid to late next week. JTWC have already just upgraded it to a TC (based on 1-minute winds) and expect she'll easily make Cat 5 just before landfall. The BoM also expect to name her later today.

WA has already had 2 offshore Cat 5 TC's this season. The last one was TC Herman just last week, notable for its rapid rise to Cat 5 just 48 hours after being named, then dissipating just as fast. The other Cat 5 was early TC Darian back in mid December.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Ilsa was finally named by the BoM this evening. The stronger than expected east to northeast wind shear, which has been hindering cyclogenesis, is now easing and with warm SST's around 30C she should develop rapidly over the next couple days before making making landfall most likely as a Cat 4 on Thursday or Friday.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Rapidly intensifying severe TC Ilsa was upgraded to Cat 4 earlier this afternoon and both the BoM and JTWC expect she'll now make landfall as a Cat 5 near Port Hedland overnight tonight (early tomorrow morning NZST)...
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

TC Ilsa is now at Cat 5, with a central pressure of 930 hPa and sustained winds near the centre of 205 km/h, with gusts to 285 km/h.
Gusts of up to 315 km/h are expected to impact areas near Pardoo Roadhouse and De Grey at landfall tonight/morning.
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Wow! This is at Bedout Island http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801 ... 4310.shtml
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Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, It looks like Bedout Island stopped recording at 1330z with gusts at the time of 289 km/h and pressure down to 931.7 hPa at 1242z.
Ilsa made landfall with Cat 5 sustained winds estimated at 215 km/h and gusts to 295 km/h just before midnight local time (1600z or 4am NZDT) between Port Hedland and the small regional community of Bidyadanga on the Pilbara Coast...
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by harleyb »

Incredible winds!

Interesting forecast track from jtwc, they are calling it a dead duck now that it's over land but wouldn't it be amazing if Ilsa was to get another lease on life in the Gulf of Carpentaria...
20230414_092711.jpg
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