Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 02/03/2023 07:51

Looks like Judy may have peaked overnight as she starts to encounter stronger shear and cooler SST's. Fiji Met earlier this morning had 10 minute max winds of 95 knots and down to 945 hPa.

Meanwhile JTWC have also issued a TC Formation Alert for our second TD about 900 km NW of Port Vila.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 02/03/2023 09:12

Judy slowing weakening with pressure now up to 948 hPa and max winds of 90 knots (10 minute).

Meanwhile JTWC have have issued its first TC Advisory for the tropical low now about 800 km WNW of Port Vila with its centre expected to hit Port Vila late tomorrow.

Edit: Images added

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 02/03/2023 12:11

TC Kevin was named by Fiji Met this morning. Currently 990 hPa with max winds of 40 knots.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 02/03/2023 15:07

TC Judy has weakened to Cat 3 this afternoon.

Meanwhile, TC Kevin has rapidly intensified to Cat 2 and is currently at 983 hPa with max winds of 50 knots.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 03/03/2023 08:46

Severe Cat 3 TC Judy is currently passing about 1000 km north of Cape Reinga.

TC Kevin has also just been upgraded to Cat 3 and is currently about 300 km NW of Port Vila, with 65 knot max winds and down to 974 hPa. Vanuatu has also experienced a shallow M6.5 quake about 30 km off the west coast of Vanuatu's northern and largest of island of Espiritu Santo this morning at 7:04am NZDT, followed by a M5.4 aftershock at 7:11am NZDT.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 03/03/2023 20:31

TC Judy has been downgraded to Cat 2 by MetService this evening and expect she'll be extratropical in the next 24 hrs.

TC Kevin continues to intensify as is now just shy of Cat 4 with winds of 85 knots (157 km/h) and down to 957 hPa as his pinhole eye passes very close to the SW of Port Vila on Efate island this evening...

BeaconHill · Unread post by **BeaconHill** » Fri 03/03/2023 22:26

Port Vila looks to be getting slammed way worse than Judy.
Check @dailypostdan on twitter for updates tomorrow on damage (if there is power!)

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 04/03/2023 07:10

TC Kevin's eye crossed the island of Erromango last night and currently lies just SE of the island of Tanna.
Fiji Met has maintained max winds of 85 knots earlier this morning (1 knot shy of Cat 4) with pressure down to 952 hPa.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 04/03/2023 08:53

TC Kevin has just been officially upgraded to Cat 4 by Fiji Met this morning, with max winds of 90 knots and central pressure down to 948 hPa.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 04/03/2023 15:10

Ex-TC Judy has been reclassified as a subtropical low by MetService this afternoon.

TC Kevin has rapidly intensified today and has just been upgraded to Cat 5 by Fiji Met this afternoon.
Currently with max winds of 110 knots and central pressure down to 930 hPa.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 04/03/2023 21:17

Kevin's 10 minute max winds now up to 115 km/h and central pressure down to 925 hPa.
TC Kevin has exceeded all expectations today. Passing over waters already churned up by the passage of TC Judy, it appeared unlikely there would be enough energy to support the system reaching its current intensity. However, increasing shear may start to take its toll tonight.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 05/03/2023 08:22

TC Kevin has just been downgraded to Cat 4 by Fiji Met this morning, as he encounters increased shear and much cooler SST's around 24-25C.
Max winds currently 100 knots and central pressure uo to 941 hPa.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 05/03/2023 21:25

TC Kevin has been downgraded to Cat 3 by MetService this evening, wth max winds of 85 knots and central pressure up to 955 hPa. Kevin is rapidly weakening with convection sheared to the SE of its LLCC, along with dry air from the west, and should complete extratropical transition within the next 24 hours.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 06/03/2023 14:25

Ex-TC Kevin was downgraded to Cat 2 by MetService around 7am this morning and this afternoon has been reclassified as a subtropical low, with max winds of 35 knots and central pressure of 980 hPa.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 10/03/2023 14:52

JTWC have issued a TC Formation Alert for a small tropical low about 230 km east of Niue this afternoon.
Fiji Met currently rates its chances within the next 48 hours as very low...

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 14/03/2023 16:18

The alert for the tropical low mentioned above didn't amount to much and its now well ESE of Niue.
JTWC also issued another TC Formation Alert for a tropical low west of Niue yesterday afternoon, but they have just withdrawn that.

Another developing tropical low about 400 km WNW of Port Vila, Vanuatu is worth keeping an eye on in the next few days though.
Conditions are currently favourable as it heads ESE, with low shear and SST's around 28-29C...

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